The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Patriots and Chiefs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 14.0 | ||
| 22.5 | 11 | Points/Gm | 13.0 | 32 |
| 17.5 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 20.9 | 14 |
| 64.1 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 21 |
| 60.8 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 18 |
| 5.6 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 28 |
| 4.9 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 4 |
| 38.66% | 26 | Rush% | 41.52% | 20 |
| 61.34% | 7 | Pass% | 58.48% | 13 |
| 41.09% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 42.93% | 18 |
| 58.91% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 57.07% | 15 |
- The Patriots have scored the fewest points compared to their implied totals this season (-77.5).
- The Chiefs are 31st in the league, scoring 58.25 fewer points than their implied totals this season.
- The Patriots are allowing 1.61 points per drive, fifth in the league.
- The Chiefs are allowing 1.63 points per drive, eighth in the league.
- New England is averaging 1.12 points per drive, 31st in the league.
- Kansas City is averaging 1.73 points per drive since Week 8, 18th in the league.
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 3.0 scoring plays per game.
- The Patriots are averaging 2.8 scoring plays per game, 31st in the league.
- The average length of touchdown for the Chiefs is 9.3 yards, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Closing last week as QB20 (13.6 points), Mahomes has now not been a QB1 scorer in three of his past four games and four of his past six.
He has two top-six scoring weeks for the season.
Over the past six weeks, Mahomes has finished QB32, QB12, QB14, QB8, QB17, and QB20.
Since Week 8, Mahomes is averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt (27th) with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. That 83.9 rating is 23rd in the NFL over that span, just ahead of Zach Wilson.
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points now seven times this season, the most in a season in the Mahomes Era.
At this stage, Mahomes is a fringe QB1.
Things do not get a lot better in terms of the outlook this week.
The Patriots still play some defense.
They are ninth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.370).
Tua Tagovailoa is the only quarterback to reach 20 passing points in a game against New England this season.
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just three games while facing Tua (twice), Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert.
If looking for a path to upside, the one thing the Patriots are not doing is generating a lot of pressure.
They are 27th in the league in pressure rate (31.4%).
When Mahomes has been kept clean, he has still thrived.
From a clean pocket, Mahomes has completed 74.2% of his passes (fifth) with 20 passing touchdowns (third) and a 108.6 rating (sixth).
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