Welcome to the Wild Card Round edition of The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview, by Rich Hribar.
What is The Worksheet from Rich Hribar?
The Worksheet is a comprehensive weekly fantasy football preview for each NFL game. Rich Hribar analyzes the matchup for every notable fantasy player for every game every week of the NFL season.
For those new to this article, just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean fantasy football stops.
The fantasy playoffs offer many new opportunities for playoff leagues, props, betting, and daily fantasy games.
272 NFL games are down, and 13 remain.
Here are some quick Wild Card Round odds and trends:
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, home teams have a 54-42 edge overall.
Against the spread, however, they have a 45-50-1 mark.
Favorites have a 60-36 record overall in the Wild Card Round over that span and a 42-53-1 mark against the spread.
Home favorites have a 46-28 record but are only 33-41 against the spread.
Of course, not every home team is the favorite to win the game.
This season, the Chargers and Vikings are road favorites.
Road favorites are 14-8 heads up in the Wild Card Round since 2002 and are 12-9-1 against the spread.
This season, the Ravens (-10) and Bills (-9) are two favorites by more than a touchdown.
Big favorites have been strong bets to move on in the Wild Card Round.
Favorites by seven or more points have a 20-3 hit rate heads-up and are 14-9 against the spread.
Favorites of double-digit points like the Ravens are 10-1 (8-3 ATS).
The 2010 Saints were the lone double-digit favorite to lose in the Wild Card Round since the expansion in the Beast Quake Game.
Small spreads are relevant if you are fishing to nail those upsets.
Underdogs of 3 or fewer points have accounted for 21 of the 36 outright wins from underdogs in the opening round.
The Texans, Rams, and Commanders are in that group this season.
Last year, three underdogs won outright. Two were at home, and both home underdogs were getting three or fewer points.
The Rams and Texans fit that mold this season.
The NFL expanded to seven playoff teams in each conference four years ago.
Over that span, home teams are 16-8 straight up and 13-11 against the spread.
Since the NFL expanded to seven playoff teams, the No. 7 seeds are 1-7 (3-5 ATS).
The one team to win as a No. 7 seed was Green Bay a year ago in Dallas.
The Packers are the No. 7 seed again this year, but they are 4.5-point underdogs, the first time that the No. 7 seed has been a dog by less than a touchdown.
The Wild Card Round has also skewed heavily towards the under when talking game totals.
Since that 32-team expansion, the under is 54-42.
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This article will be updated throughout the week to reflect major news or injury implications.
Click the matchups below for the individual game previews.
Wild Card Fantasy Football Matchups
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Chargers @ Texans | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Rams -- FREE | Monday -- 8 p.m. ET |
