Ravens vs. Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Steelers and Ravens.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Against the Spread:

• Ravens: 10-6-1
• Steelers: 11-6
• Ravens Home: 4-3-1
• Steelers Away: 5-4
• Ravens as Favorite: 10-5-1
• Steelers as Underdog: 6-3

Game Overview

The night game on Saturday will feature the rubber match between these two rivals.

Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 18-16 at home in Week 11.

Baltimore avenged that loss with a 34-17 win at home in Week 16.

These teams are no strangers, but this is the first time they have met in the postseason since 2014.

Pittsburgh is the most considerable underdog of the opening round.

As noted in the intro column, underdogs of 10 or more points in the Wild Card Round are 1-10 since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002.

These teams have been opposites on offense this season.

Baltimore is the most efficient early-down offense in the NFL.

The Ravens average a league-high 6.9 yards per play on first down.

The Steelers average a league-low 4.5 yards per play on first down.

As a byproduct of that early down success, the Ravens have reached third down on a league-low 38.3% of their set of downs.

The Steelers have faced third down 49.6% of their set of downs, which is 25th in the league.

The Ravens have also been good at scoring touchdowns while the Steelers have settled for field goals to produce the bulk of their points.

74.1% of Baltimore's scoring plays this season have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.

46.1% of Pittsburgh's scoring plays have been touchdowns, ahead of only the Raiders (46%) and Cowboys (42%).

Unsurprisingly, the Steelers have the lowest implied team total of the weekend.

The Steelers need this game to be played in a low-scoring fashion.

Things are more evenly matched on the defensive side.

Pittsburgh has allowed 1.83 points per drive (7th) while Baltimore has allowed 1.92 yards per drive (11th).

However, these defenses have gone in opposite directions over the back half of the year.

Since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed 1.59 points per drive (2nd) compared to 2.21 points per drive allowed by the Steelers (19th).

Both teams are good at protecting the football this season.

The Ravens have allowed 30 points off turnovers this year (3rd) while the Steelers have allowed only 38 (4th).

Pittsburgh finished the regular season at +16 in turnover margin, which was second in the NFL.

When Pittsburgh won the Week 11 matchup between these teams, they had 3 takeaways that resulted in 9 points.

In the Week 16 loss, they had zero points off turnovers while the Ravens had 14.

In the second matchup, Russell Wilson lost a fumble on a scramble at the Ravens' four-yard line, which caused a huge momentum swing.

Pittsburgh was looking to take the lead in the second quarter, but Baltimore went on a 96-yard touchdown drive immediately following that fumble and never looked back.

If there is one added edge for Baltimore, they have been the most battle-tested team this season.

The Ravens have played 10 games this season against teams in the 2024 playoffs, tied for the most in the league with the Raiders.

Baltimore went 7-3 in those games.

One of those losses was to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh played 7 games against playoff teams this year, going 4-3 in those games.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Whether he is awarded a third MVP Trophy or not, Jackson put together one of the best statistical seasons we have seen from a quarterback.

As a passer, Jackson led the league with an 8.6% touchdown rate, 8.8 yards per attempt, a 119.6 rating, and a 77.5 QBR.

He threw 41 touchdown passes to just 4 interceptions.

If that wasn’t enough, he added 915 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing.

Jackson also took a sack on a career-low 4.6% of his dropbacks.

He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (25.3) but was held below that in both games against the Steelers, posting 14.9 points in Week 11 and 20.5 points in the Week 16 rematch.

Those were two of his four “lowest” scoring games this season.

We have been here before with Jackson, entering the postseason coming off a sensational regular season run.

The Ravens are huge favorites here with the highest team total on the Saturday slate, so Jackson will undoubtedly be the most popular quarterback in those contests.

There is added nuance in approaching those lineups for the full six-game slate.

The last hurdle Jackson needs to clear is getting over in the postseason.

His teams are 2-4 in the postseason.

He has thrown 6 total touchdown passes in those games with no more than 2 in any contest.

We hit on this during the regular season, but defenses aggressively played Jackson through Cover 1 and man blitzes to varying success.

Jackson faced man coverage on 31% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league.

He was blitzed on 32.6% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.

That is the bread and butter of what the Steelers set out to do defensively.

Against Cover 1, Jackson completed 59.7% of his passes (12th) for 8.4 yards per attempt (7th) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (10th) during the regular season.

When Pittsburgh went to Cover 1 in the Week 11 matchup, Jackson was 6-of-13 (46.2%) for 72 yards (5.5 Y/A).

In the Week 16 rematch, they calibrated and Jackson scorched the Steelers in Cover 1, connecting on 11-of-14 (78.6%) passes for 161 yards (11.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

Jackson had the most pass attempts in the NFL against man coverage blitzes (96) this season.

On those plays, Jackson completed 62.5% of his passes (8th) for 7.0 Y/A (18th) and a 9.4% touchdown rate (21st).

In the first matchup between these teams, Jackson was only 5-of-11 (45.5%) for 57 yards (5.2 Y/A) with an interception against the Pittsburgh man blitzes.

In the rematch, he was 9-of-14 (64.3%) for 105 yards (7.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

We strongly sense that the Steelers will remain aggressive here since they have consistently done so all season, but they may want to adjust themselves.

Pittsburgh played man coverage on 53.4% of the plays against Baltimore in the regular season, blitzing Jackson on 48.3% of his dropbacks.

They played Cover 1 on 47.5% of the passing plays.

On the 24 dropbacks in which the Steelers dropped into zone coverage and did not blitz Jackson over those two games, he was 10-of-22 (45.5%) for 6.0 Y/A with 1 touchdown.

Pittsburgh has struggled on the back end to close the season, so adjustments should be made.

Over their past seven games, Pittsburgh has allowed 7.5 Y/A (25th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (25th).

Before that, they had allowed 6.9 Y/A (12th) and a 2.7% touchdown rate (5th).

We also have to keep tabs on the availability of Zay Flowers here.

Jackson still threw a pair of touchdowns with Flowers off the field in Week 18, but he was only 13-of-26 (50%) for 6.8 Y/A.

Baltimore has a limited supply of wideouts that scare the opposition, and Flowers accounted for a team-high 139 receiving yards in the two matchups between these teams.

Jackson has run more in the postseason over his career.

He has rushed for 86.8 yards per game in the playoffs with at least 54 yards rushing in five of those six games.

The Steelers did a solid job this season by limiting rushing production from passers.

Jackson had 46 and 22 yards against them.

Jalen Hurts had 45.

Jayden Daniels had 5 yards.

Bo Nix had 25.

Jackson has not run for a touchdown in six career starts against the Steelers with a high of 70 yards rushing in those games.

Russell Wilson: It has been a rough close to the season for Wilson and this Pittsburgh passing game.

Over his past five games, Wilson has completed 61.1% of his passes (25th) for 5.7 yards per attempt.

The only quarterback with fewer yards per attempt over that span is Dorian Thompson–Robinson (3.8 Y/A).

Wilson has thrown for fewer than 7.0 Y/A in all five games.

Three of those were without George Pickens, but even with Pickens returning to close the year, Wilson ended the season with only 5.5 Y/A versus the Chiefs in Week 17 and a season-low 4.8 Y/A in Week 18 against the Bengals.

The most significant difference has been Wilson has run colder on downfield throws.

Over the past five weeks, Wilson has completed 19-of-45 (42.2%) of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, 21st in the league.

Wilson completed 31-of-52 (49.6%) of those passes in his first six starts, third in the league during that stretch.

Even with Pickens returning, Wilson is 7-of-22 (31.8%) on those throws the past two games.

Wilson was 8-of-18 (44.4%) on those throws in his two games against the Ravens.

Baltimore has been a pass defense on the upswing.

They started the season as one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but over their past seven games, the Ravens have allowed a 59.5% completion rate (3rd), a league-low 5.8 Y/A, and a league-low 2.2% touchdown rate.

Their competition has been a mixed bag over that span, but that sample also includes two games against Wilson.

In those games, Wilson threw for 205 yards (5.7 Y/A) and 217 yards (6.6 Y/A).

He did throw a pair of touchdowns in that second matchup but added an interception and a lost fumble.

The Ravens have also been sturdy against the pass at home all season.

At home, they have allowed a 62.9% completion rate (8th), 6.8 Y/A (11th), and an 8.2% sack rate (8th).

Running Back

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