Rams vs. Vikings Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Rams and Vikings.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Against the Spread:

• Vikings: 11-5-1
• Rams: 9-8
• Rams Home: 4-5
• Vikings Away: 4-3-1
• Vikings Favorite: 8-4-1
• Rams Underdog: 5-5

Game Overview

One final regular-season rematch will close Wild Card Weekend on Monday night.

Minnesota visited Los Angeles in Week 8 on Thursday Night Football, and the Rams won that game 30-20.

That game was 21-20 with 12:47 left in the fourth quarter before the Rams scored the final nine points, so we should close the weekend down with a good matchup.

The Rams took a unique road to this point.

They had a season filled with significant absences but are as healthy as they have been all season.

Through all of their injuries, the Rams have led for only 21.9% of their offensive snaps this season.

That is 27th in the NFL and by far the lowest rate for any team in the postseason.

The next closest team is the Steelers, who led for 31.4% of their offensive snaps.

That Week 8 game between these teams is when the Rams started to get healthy and turn things around.

They were 2-4 at that stage.

They then went 8-2 before last week’s game when they rested starters.

Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup that night.

With Nacua and Kupp on the field this season, the Rams have posted 5.6 yards per play.

That number dropped to 5.3 yards per play with either off the field. With both absent, it dipped to 5.1 yards per play.

That may not seem significant, but those are the differences between being 12th, 19th, and 24th in yards per play this season.

However, the Rams' turnaround was arguably centered on the other side of the ball.

The Rams were 28th in points allowed per drive (2.44) heading into that Week 8 game.

They had allowed a touchdown on 27% of opponent drives, which was 28th in the league.

Over the next 10 games, they allowed 2.04 points per drive (16th) and a touchdown on 22.2% of drives (13th).

If the Rams still have a glaring bugaboo, it is their performance on third downs.

They are 24th in the league in third-down conversion rate (36.8%), the lowest rate of any team still playing. That rate has even been a touch lower since getting everyone back (36.4%).

The good news is that the Rams have only reached third down on 42.3% of their set of downs, which is ninth in the league.

The Vikings took a cleaner route here.

They have been solid all season long on both sides of the ball.

The Vikings have averaged 2.41 points per drive (10th) while allowing 1.73 points per drive (4th).

Minnesota did allow a touchdown on 29.9% of their drives against playoff teams compared to 13.3% against non-playoff teams, which has been the question surrounding this Minnesota team.

Can Minnesota continuously punch up against front-end competition?

After that loss to the Rams, Minnesota went on to win their next nine games, but only one of those wins was against a playoff team (Green Bay).

The Vikings went 3-3 against 2024 playoff opponents, with two wins against the Packers and another against Houston.

The Rams were 2-3 against playoff teams, beating the Bills outside that Minnesota game.

Quarterback

Sam Darnold: For as strong as a renaissance that Darnold has had this season under Kevin O’Connell, he enters the playoffs on a sour note.

This offense had by far their worst performance of the season in Detroit last week, posting a season-low -14.3 EPA on offense.

19.5% of Darnold’s throws were inaccurate, his second-highest rate in a game this season behind Week 5 in London.

Darnold was pressured on a season-high 48.9% of his dropbacks in Detroit.

Under pressure, he was 4-of-18 passing for 70 yards (3.9 Y/A).

Previously, Darnold had handled the pressure well.

Darnold still has questions entering the postseason, but Sunday night was not the first clunker he has given us.

It was the most recent and in a spot where things were magnified, but we saw him struggle in Week 5 against the Jets and then again in Week 10 against Jacksonville.

He bounced back in both of those outings.

He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 12 games this season.

When these teams played in Week 8, Darnold was 18-of-25 (72%) for 240 yards (9.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Under pressure in that game, he was 7-of-10 for 95 yards (9.5 Y/A).

Pressure has been the name of the game for this Los Angeles defense.

When they have pressured the quarterback over their past 12 games, the Rams have allowed a 44.2% completion rate (9th) and 4.9 Y/A (4th).

Without pressure, they have allowed a 72.1% completion rate (17th) and 8.0 Y/A (25th).

Another area where Darnold and this passing game can succeed is the play-action game.

Darnold used play action on 29% of his dropbacks, eighth in the league.

Using play action, he was second in the NFL in rating (130.2) behind Lamar Jackson (136.5).

Darnold posted 10.1 Y/A (5th) and a 10.1% touchdown rate (2nd) using play action.

Against play action passes, the Rams have allowed 8.6 Y/A (23rd) and a 6.3% touchdown rate (24th).

When Minnesota used play action in Week 8, Darnold was 8-of-8 passing for 104 yards (13.0 Y/A) with both touchdown passes.

What hurt the Vikings in that first matchup was their struggle on third down, something we highlighted that the Rams have had issues with.

The Vikings were only 2-of-7 on third downs in that game with Darnold going 2-of-6 with only one conversion on his third down passes.

For the season, Minnesota had converted 38.1% of their passes on third downs for a new set of downs, eighth in the league.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has had a tale of two seasons centered around the health of this offense.

Since getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in Week 8, Stafford is 10th in EPA per dropback (0.16) after sitting 24th through seven games (-0.07).

He has thrown 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions over his final 10 games.

If there are any nits to pick here, this passing game closed the season's final three weeks on a lackluster note.

Stafford threw for fewer than 6.0 Y/A in each of the season's final three games, passing for fewer than 200 yards in all of them.

Stafford completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of his final five games while throwing for fewer than 200 yards in four.

That was not the case when these teams played in Week 8.

Stafford was 25-of-34 (73.5%) for 279 yards (8.2 Y/A) and 4 touchdowns.

Minnesota only pressured Stafford on 23.5% of his dropbacks in that game, their third-lowest rate of the season.

The only blitzed Stafford on 29.4% of his dropbacks, well below their 38.6% rate on the season.

That was for good reason. When they did blitz Stafford, he was 7-of-10 for 104 yards.

Minnesota must find a way to get to Stafford in the rematch.

When they pressured him in that game, Stafford only threw for 5.9 Y/A with a touchdown and an interception.

Stafford threw for 8.9 Y/A from a clean pocket with 3 touchdowns in that game.

That was the case with Stafford this season.

With a healthy receiving corps, Stafford averaged 8.2 Y/A from a clean pocket with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Under pressure, that dropped to 5.3 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

His 56.3 rating under pressure since these teams met was 27th in the league.

Running Back

Kyren Williams: Williams has proven to be one of the better workhorse backs of the past two seasons.

He is not overly electric but continues to accrue a high rate of touches with a nose for the end zone.

Out of 46 running backs with 100 or more attempts, Williams was 34th in yards per carry (4.1 YPC) with a run of 10 or more yards on 8.5% of his runs (39th).

However, he failed to gain yardage on only 14.6% of his runs (8th) while turning 26.9% of his runs into first downs or touchdowns (7th).

Williams averaged 19.8 runs per game, which was third in the league.

With Blake Corum sidelined, expect Williams to accrue nearly every backfield touch on Monday.

Running backs only scored 27.9% of the fantasy points allowed by Minnesota this season (second in the league), but they have had some issues when tasked to slow down front-end running backs.

They just allowed 170 yards and 4 touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday.

They also allowed 160 yards on 19 touches to Gibbs when those teams met in Week 7.

They allowed 98 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to the Green Bay backfield in Week 17.

They allowed 155 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to the Atlanta backfield in Week 14.

When these teams played in week 8, Williams did what he does as a workhorse.

He rushed 23 times for 97 yards, catching 5-of-7 targets for 19 yards.

That was a season-high in targets for him.

Aaron Jones: Jones closed the season with 15 touches for 75 yards on Sunday.

He only handled 65.2% of the backfield touches.

He has had under two-thirds of the backfield touches in six of the past nine games as Cam Akers has worked into the offense over the back half of the season.

Jones has reached 100 total yards in only two of his past 8 games, both coming against Chicago.

Operating as a floor-based fantasy asset, Jones needs to reach the end zone to tap into his ceiling on his current workload.

When these teams played in Week 8, Minnesota rushed for a season-low 64 yards.

Jones ran 19 times for 58 yards (3.1 YPC), catching 2 passes for 37 yards.

Outside of getting blasted for 255 yards by Saquon Barkley in Week 12, the Rams allowed 4.1 YPC to running backs (7th) and a first down or touchdown on 21.7% of those runs (12th).

They have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 12, the only game they have allowed a rushing score to a running back since Week 6.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson was part of the sour note that the regular season ended on Sunday, catching 3-of-9 targets for 54 yards.

He had 2 drops, half the amount he had entered last week.

Darnold did not help the rest of the cause, giving him another two off-target throws.

We can’t get those potential points back, but Jefferson had opportunities to have a big game. It was just one of those nights for this offense in total.

Despite the way things ended, Jefferson still had another incredible season.

He caught 103 passes (WR4) for 1,533 yards (WR4) and 10 touchdowns (WR5).

Jefferson had 29.8% of Minnesota targets (WR2) with 2.51 yards per route (WR4).

Minnesota will go right back to Jefferson, and fantasy gamers should do so as well.

The Rams allowed 9.1 yards per target (24th) and an 8.3% touchdown rate (31st) to opposing WR1 targets.

When these teams played in Week 8, Jefferson caught 8-of-9 targets for 115 yards.

The Rams played two-high safeties on 53.6% of the passing plays in that game.

Against two-high coverage, Jefferson leads the team with 29.8% of the targets.

Puka Nacua: This matchup is when Nacua returned to the lineup and started his stellar close of the season.

After returning in Week 8, Nacua led all wide receivers in target rate per route (38.9%) and yards per route run (3.65).

He averaged 7.5 receptions for 95.5 yards per game over that stretch with 3 touchdowns receiving.

Nacua caught 7-of-9 targets for 106 yards when these teams played in Week 8 despite only running 22 routes (64.7%) since it was a short week off injury.

The Vikings have faced 23.6 targets per game to wide receivers, the second-most in the league.

As a byproduct, wide receivers have scored 55.9% of the fantasy points they have allowed, the second-highest rate in the league.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp has been the core piece of this offense, hurt by the limited production of this passing offense to close the year.

As noted, Stafford has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his past five games.

He has 17 or fewer completions in those four games.

In those four games, Kupp has had games of 3-17-0 (6 targets), 0-0-0 (3 targets), 3-24-0 (3 targets), and 1-29-0 (3 targets).

In the one strong outing for Stafford over that span against Buffalo (he completed 23 passes for 320 yards), Kupp caught 5-of-8 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Based on how the season ended, we strongly believe Nacua will get his no matter the outcome, but Kupp will largely follow Stafford.

You can play Nacua as an isolated play, but if you are building Stafford stacks in DFS, Kupp should be a part of those.

If you are fading Stafford, then naturally, you are fading Kupp.

Stafford did deliver in this first matchup, and Kupp was a part of the action, catching 5-of-8 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown.

Minnesota has allowed 6.2 catches per game (30th) to slot receivers.

Jordan Addison: Addison also went down with the ship (sad Vikings puns) on Sunday, catching 1-of-6 targets for zero yards.

He only had 15.8% of the team targets, his lowest rate in a game since Week 10.

He had seen 8 or more targets in six of the previous seven games.

Addison remains a touchdown threat, scoring 7 times over his final eight games.

We highlighted how much two-high coverage the Rams ran in the first matchup between these teams.

Addison has only been targeted on 17.5% of his routes with 1.47 yards per route against those looks this season.

In that game, he caught 2-of-3 targets for 22 yards.

If you want Addison to make noise based on where the Rams have had their troubles, it will come in the play-action game.

He has a team-high 3.20 yards per route and 5 touchdowns on play action passes this season.

Demarcus Robinson: Robinson has not had more than 2 receptions in a game Nacua and Kupp have finished this season.

I mention him here because he had 2 touchdowns (on 2 catches) when these teams played in Week 8.

If you are playing Robinson, you know what you are signing up for as a touchdown-dependent option.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Since returning in Week 9, Hockenson has averaged 4.1 receptions for 45.5 yards per game.

He has not found the end zone but has seen 18.2% of the team targets.

Hockenson did not play in the first matchup between these teams, but this matchup has appeal for him, aside from being one of the few viable tight ends of the weekend.

Tight ends have received 27.5% of the targets against the Rams this season, the highest rate in the league.

On those targets, the Rams have allowed a 74.7% catch rate (24th), 7.8 yards per target (22nd), and a 4.9% touchdown rate (23rd).

In Week 8, Minnesota tight ends caught 3 passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in this matchup.

Rams TEs: Rams tight ends have 51 receptions (29th) for a league-low 459 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season.

The Rams did use Week 18 to continue to get Tyler Higbee up to speed.

After running 6 and 8 routes in Weeks 16-17, returning from his ACL injury, he ran 21 routes in Week 18 (46.7%).

He is still a touchdown-or-bust candidate, but the Rams are ramping him up.

Unfortunately, this is a tough matchup to chase.

Minnesota has allowed a 2.5% touchdown rate to tight ends, which is fourth in the league.

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