The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Packers and Eagles.
Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 27.1 | 8 | Points/Gm | 27.2 | 7 |
| 19.9 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 17.8 | 2 |
| 60.4 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 3 |
| 60.9 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 1 |
| 6.1 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 11 |
| 5.2 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 1 |
| 51.22% | 3 | Rush% | 55.75% | 1 |
| 48.78% | 30 | Pass% | 44.25% | 32 |
| 41.12% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 41.64% | 12 |
| 58.88% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 58.36% | 21 |
Against the Spread:
- Eagles: 11-6
- Packers: 8-8-1
- Eagles Home: 5-4
- Packers Away: 3-4-1
- Eagles as Favorite: 8-6
- Packers as Underdog: 2-3-1
Game Overview
This is a rematch from Week 1 when these teams played in Brazil.
The first thing that sticks out is that the game total for this matchup is significantly lower than the 34-29 game we had to open the season, with the Eagles winning.
Both teams have implied team totals below their output this season concerning both defenses.
The Eagles have had the best defense in the NFL since their bye in Week 5.
Since then, they have allowed more than 20 points only twice.
Over that span, Philadelphia has allowed the fewest points per drive (1.41) and yards per play (4.3) in the league.
During that run, the Eagles have not allowed a first down on 44.9% of opponent possessions, the highest rate in the league.
The league average over that span is 30.9%.
Green Bay has been as close to as good as Philadelphia.
The Packers are second over that span in points allowed per drive (1.76) and third in yards allowed per play (5.1).
Green Bay is second in the league in points generated from turnovers (117) while the Eagles are third (104).
The other element pulling this game total down is that the identity of both of these teams has swerved into wanting to run the football heavily.
The Eagles have the lowest dropback rate in the league at 47.9%.
The Packers are next at 50.7%.
Both teams have thrown the ball 8% below expectations this season.
The Packers have thrown the ball 11% below expectations on first downs while the Eagles are 9% below expectations.
On offense, the Packers are sixth in the league in points per drive (2.50) while the Eagles are seventh (2.49).
Both teams have dealt with injuries, but the Eagles have been missing their core offense for most of the season.
They have run only 112 plays this season with Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert on the field, which is only 10.1% of their plays.
All are entering the playoffs healthy.
Regarding the road getting here, the Eagles have been tested to a greater degree.
Philadelphia has played seven games this season against playoff teams, going 5-2 in those contests.
The Packers have gone 2-5 against 2024 playoff opponents.
This is familiar territory for Green Bay.
They were the No. 7 seed a year ago and won on the road, the only No. 7 to win since the NFL expanded the playoffs.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: There has been some gamesmanship about Hurts' availability, but he is fully expected to play this weekend after missing the past two games with a concussion.
It was another strong season for Hurts, who ended the year QB5 in fantasy points per game (21.0) despite hardly having his full cupboard of pass catchers for most of the season.
In his first season under Kellen Moore, we have seen progression in this offense.
The Eagles used motion on 50.8% of the dropbacks with Hurts on the field.
That was only in the middle of the league, but in 2023, the Eagles were 28th in pre-snap motion (28% of Hurts’s dropbacks).
That was significant in terms of results.
Hurts was second in the NFL in rating (116.6) when using pre-snap motion, completing 69.3% of his passes (10th) for 8.9 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (5th).
He threw 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions using motion.
Without pre-snap motion, Hurts was 17th in rating (91.0), completing 68.1% of his passes (5th) for 7.2 Y/A (19th) and only a 2.7% touchdown rate (31st).
When these teams played in Week 1, Hurts was 12-of-18 for 172 yards (9.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns off pre-snap motion.
Without, he went 8-of-16 for 106 yards (6.6 Y/A) with 2 interceptions.
Hurts made a handful of mistakes in Week 1, but he still finished as QB10 (16.4 points).
He had 3 turnovers, throwing 2 interceptions and fumbling on an early snap by Cam Jurgens, who was in his first game taking over at center for Jason Kelce.
The center exchange was sloppy in the first outing without Kelce, but Hurts still delivered enough explosive plays paired with 33 rushing yards to get by.
Where Green Bay had success was getting pressure on Hurts.
Under pressure, Hurts was 4-of-13 for 3.8 Y/A with an interception.
That is something that remained static for the rest of the season.
No quarterback was pressured at a higher rate this season than Hurts (40.5% of dropbacks).
Some of that is his own doing since he had the longest time to throw in the NFL this season (3.06 seconds from the snap).
18.8% of his pressures were credited to him holding the ball, which was 35th in the league.
But when pressured, Hurts only completed 46.5% of his passes (20th) for 5.2 Y/A (29th).
If the Packers succeed, it will be by getting to Hurts, who has not played since Dec. 22.
The other avenue for Philadelphia to be successful is in the play-action game.
Green Bay has allowed only 6.4 Y/A on non-play action throws, which is fourth in the league.
However, using play action, the Packers have allowed 8.7 Y/A, dropping to 24th in the league.
Jordan Love: It was an odd season for Love.
First, he dealt with multiple injuries.
He suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the Week 1 game between these teams, which sidelined him for two weeks.
He then suffered a groin injury that forced him from Week 8.
Last week, an elbow sprain removed him from the game.
He is expected to play this week but covered his bases on banged-up body parts.
The Packers also had an approach that made Love look like Russell Wilson.
The Packers' dropback rate was 31st, but when they did throw, Love took layups or threw the rock downfield.
Love threw the ball at the intermediate levels only 16.9% of the time (23rd) and threw deep on 16% of his attempts, the second-highest rate in the league behind Anthony Richardson (22.7%).
As a result, his 63.1% completion rate was 29th in the league.
However, his expected completion rate, due to the types of throws he was taking, was 64.6%, 33rd in the league.
Love still sported a 5.9% touchdown rate, which was higher than his rate in 2023 (5.5%).
He averaged 8.0 Y/A, up from the 7.2 Y/A he had last season.
What will be interesting here is how the loss of Christian Watson impacts the downfield component of this offense.
Without Watson on the field this season, Love has averaged 7.0 Y/A compared to 8.8 Y/A with Watson on the field.
We also have the matchup element in play.
Love was only 17-of-34 passing when these teams played in Week 1, but he had 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, connecting for 160 yards with only 5 completions on throws 10 or more yards downfield.
The Eagles have allowed only a 42.9% completion rate (3rd) and 8.5 Y/A (2nd) on those throws since their bye.
Running Back
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More Wild Card Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Chargers @ Texans | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Rams -- FREE | Monday -- 8 p.m. ET |
