Buccaneers vs. Commanders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Commanders and Buccaneers.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Against the Spread:

• Buccaneers: 10-7
• Commanders: 10-6-1
• Buccaneers Home: 5-4
• Commanders Away: 3-4-1
• Buccaneers as Favorite: 5-4
• Commanders as Underdog: 3-2-1

Game Overview

This is another rematch from Week 1, when Tampa Bay hosted and defeated Washington, 37-20.

That was the first game for a completely revamped Washington regime, which had its most wins in a season since 1991.

It was Jayden Daniels‘ first game in the NFL.

The Buccaneers were also in their first game under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen.

These teams ended up with two of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Washington is fourth in the NFL in points per drive (2.72) while Tampa Bay is fifth (2.69).

Washington averaged the most points per drive on the road this season (2.89).

Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on 31.5% of their possessions, which is fourth in the league.

Washington scored a touchdown on 30.7% of their drives, fifth in the league.

These were two of the best teams in the red zone.

Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on 66.7% of their red zone trips (46-of-69), fourth in the league.

Washington has scored a touchdown on 63.4% of their red zone trips (45-of-71), which is sixth.

Both defenses have had their issues.

The Buccaneers are 18th in points allowed per drive (2.07) while the Commanders are 22nd (2.20).

Since their Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay has only allowed 1.57 points per drive, which is second in the NFL.

They have had a favorable run of lackluster offenses over that stretch, facing Carolina twice, the Giants, Cowboys, Raiders, and Chargers.

If Washington is going to succeed here, they have to find a way to get Baker Mayfield on the ground.

When Tampa Bay was not sacked on possession, they averaged 3.13 points per drive, second in the NFL.

But on any drive with a sack, they averaged 0.95 points per drive, which was 20th.

Washington's splits were not as pronounced.

They were third in the NFL in points per drive without a sack (2.98) and still were second in points per drive when taking a sack (1.85).

The other area where Washington will have to slow down Tampa Bay is on third downs.

The Buccaneers converted a league-high 50.9% of their third downs.

Tampa Bay converted 12.8% more of their third downs than their opponents, second in the NFL behind Detroit.

When these teams played in Week 1, Tampa Bay converted 9-of-13 third downs while Washington was 2-of-8.

We did not see Washington punch up in weight class often this season.

They went 9-2 as a favorite this season and 1-4 against playoff teams.

Tampa Bay was 7-2 as a favorite this season and 4-3 against playoff teams.

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels: Daniels ended up with a sensational rookie season, completing 69% of his passes (6th) for 7.4 Y/A (14th). 

He threw 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. 

On the ground, Daniels added 891 yards and 5 touchdowns.

As good as he closed the season in terms of counting stats, this passing game did slow down from an efficiency stance.

Since Week 10, Daniels has averaged only 6.4 Y/A, 29th in the league.

He has thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt in six of those eight games.

But that has not slowed him down from a fantasy stance.

He has averaged 24.3 points per game over that span on the strength of positive touchdown regression and rushing output.

During that same period, Daniels' touchdown rate has been 6.3%, which is sixth in the league.

He had a 3.9% touchdown rate prior (20th).

He has still been unlucky in the touchdown department overall.

Daniels has only 3 passing touchdowns on throws that were run in by the pass catcher and not thrown into the end zone.

Only Trevor Lawrence (2) and Cooper Rush (1) had fewer. Neither played the entire season.

He has also tacked on 54 rushing yards per game over that run.

He has a 10.5% scramble rate over those weeks, the highest rate in the league.

Daniels ended Week 1 in this matchup as the QB3 (28.2 points) on the strength of rushing 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It was not overly sexy from a passing stance, but Daniels delivered fantasy points via his legs in his NFL debut.

Let’s start with the passing.

He only had 7.4 passing points in that opener.

Daniels ended the season with 13.2 passing points per game.

We came into that Week 1 game expecting the Bucs to be aggressive with Daniels, and they did just that.

The Bucs blitzed on 38.5% of the dropbacks, fifth in Week 1.

When blitzed, Daniels was frenetic. 

He completed 4-of-8 passes for 37 yards (4.6 Y/A) when blitzed, but he took off 5 times for 53 yards as well.

Throughout the regular season, Daniels adjusted, posting 8.6 Y/A against the blitz (10th in the league) over the rest of the season.

In Week 1, he threw just 12.5% of his passes 10 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate in the season. 

From that point on, he threw 36.2% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, which was 11th in the league.

We highlighted to open here that Daniels has lost some efficiency and leaned on his rushing and touchdown production.

The Bucs have had several injuries on the back end but have still managed to hold up. 

Over their past seven games, they have allowed 6.4 Y/A (4th) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (2nd).

A good portion of that is opponent-driven (they have faced Tommy DeVito, Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell, and Spencer Rattler in that run).

Still, that sample also includes holding Justin Herbert to 195 yards and 5.9 Y/A and the resurgent Bryce Young to 6.5 Y/A and 7.2 Y/A. 

They have not allowed more than 2 passing touchdowns in a game since Week 9.

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield had the best season of his career, setting career marks in completions (407), attempts (570), completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), and touchdowns (41).

He also ran for a career-high 378 yards with 3 touchdowns.

His 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the best of his career.

In his first season with Liam Coen, there was a more significant emphasis on the short passing game.

After averaging 8.6 air yards per throw in 2023 under Dave Canales, Mayfield averaged 7.0 air yards per pass this season.

His average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

That area is where there was a divide with Mayfield as a passer this year.

When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

When these teams played in Week 1, Mayfield averaged 2.37 seconds per throw.

When getting the ball out within 2.5 seconds of the snap in that game, Mayfield was 18-of-21 for 8.9 Y/A and 4 touchdowns.

The quick passing game was an issue for Washington all season.

When quarterbacks got rid of the ball within 2.5 seconds, Washington allowed a league-high 7.7% touchdown rate and 6.7 Y/A (20th).

On throws where quarterbacks held the ball longer, they allowed 7.6 Y/A (11th) and a league-low 1.4% touchdown rate.

The Commanders ended the season 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.451) while Mayfield was third in passing points per attempt (0.547) for fantasy.

All of that is coming with a light runout to end the season for Washington, facing Will Levis, Jake Haener/Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance.

Running Back

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