Texans vs. Chargers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Chargers and Texans.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Against the Spread:

• Chargers: 12-4-1
• Texans: 7-9-1
• Texans Home: 3-5
• Chargers Away: 7-2
• Chargers as Favorite: 11-2
• Texans as Underdog: 3-3

Game Overview

Wild Card Weekend kicks off with the lowest game total of the opening round.

That is not surprising considering our overlap on offense and defense.

Games involving the Chargers averaged 41.4 points per game, which was 29th in the league.

Games involving the Texans were 10-6-1 under the game total, the second-best mark toward the under in the league behind the Giants.

Houston has scored a touchdown on 18.1% of their possessions this season, which was 25th in the league and the lowest rate of any team in the playoffs.

This game is projected to be tight and played closely to the vest for both teams.

Both teams have an affection for third downs.

The Chargers have had 50.2% of their set of downs reach third down, 28th in the league.

Houston has reached third down on 49.9% of their set of downs, 27th in the league.

26.3% of the Texans' set of downs have reached third and long, ahead of only the Bears (26.9%) and Browns (27.7%).

The Chargers are at 23.4%, which is 25th in the league.

Both teams commit to the running game, even when ineffective.

Houston posted a 32% success rate on running back runs this season, ahead of only the Giants (31%) and Raiders (29%).

The Chargers notched a 36.2% success rate on running back rushes, which was 23rd in the league.

On early down runs by running backs, the Texans were 30th (29.8%) while the Chargers were 29th (31.3%).

The Chargers did better at getting themselves out of the trouble they created, converting 40.3% of their third downs (11th), but that fell to 23.3% on third and long situations (20th).

Houston converted 37.7% of their third downs (20th), but they did convert 24.6% of the third and long situations (16th).

The Chargers turned the ball over on a league-low 4.4% of their possessions.

They allowed only 21 points off turnovers this season, the fewest in the league.

Houston was also good at protecting the football, turning it over on only 9.3% of their drives (11th) and allowing 50 points off turnovers (10th).

While Houston did not have many turnovers, they did have many negative plays caused by sacks.

The team posted -93.9 EPA on sacks this season, which was 29th in the league.

The Texans only averaged 0.76 points per drive when they took a sack, which was 28th in the league.

Defensively, the Chargers allowed 1.65 points per drive, ranked third in the league.

The Texans allowed 1.92 points per drive, which was 10th.

Neither of these teams responded well to being tested this season.

The Texans were 1-5 against teams that made the postseason this year while the Chargers were 2-5. Houston beat Buffalo, and both the Chargers' wins came against the Broncos.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert: We came into this season expecting Herbert to have his best season from an efficiency stance while compromising counting stats under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.

That played out as expected.

Herbert threw for a career-low 227.6 yards per game, but he set career-best marks in interception rate (0.6%), yards per pass attempt (7.7), and yards per completion (11.7).

He was 12th among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.10), his highest mark since 2021.

While the conservative nature of this offense muted some of his top-down statistics, the Chargers opened things up along the way, which propelled Herbert to more fantasy success.

Since Week 8, the Chargers have thrown the ball 1% over expectations.

That was not groundbreaking, but they were 5% below expectations up until that point of the season.

They had a 60.2% dropback rate (20th) after a 52% rate (29th) prior.

From then on, Herbert averaged 8.0 Y/A (6th) and 12.0 yards per completion (7th) with a 5.0% touchdown rate (14th) after he averaged 7.1 Y/A (19th), 10.9 yards per completion (18th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (20th) prior.

The team generated splash plays, averaging 4.2 completions of 20 or more yards per game over that spike (7th in the league) compared to a 3.2 per game beforehand (20th).

As a result, Herbert averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch compared to 11.4 per game before.

He went from a back-end QB2 for fantasy to working his way into the back-end QB1 mix.

That lines up with the boom-or-bust nature of the Houston pass defense.

The Texans allowed a league-low 58.9% completion rate this season and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (6th).

But when they did surrender completions, they were often big plays.

The Texans allowed 11.5 yards per completion (25th).

They also allowed a 5.6% touchdown rate, which was 30th in the league and the highest of any team in the postseason.

An added area where Herbert has a path to production for fantasy is via his legs.

He rushed for a career-high 306 yards this season.

The Texans were 21st in rushing points allowed per game to quarterbacks (3.4).

C.J. Stroud: Stroud took a step back across the board in his second season, completing 63.2% of his passes (27th) for 7.0 yards per attempt (22nd) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (29th).

He ended the season averaging only 13.0 fantasy points per game (QB28), which was right on par with Kirk Cousins.

There is some irony here with Stroud facing Herbert.

Like Herbert, Stroud’s career got off to a fantastic start, but then he was pulled down by natural regression, several injuries to his surrounding playmakers, and a mish-mash offensive line.

The offensive line was also battered and bad during his rookie season, but this year, as noted earlier, Stroud did a worse job mitigating damage through sacks.

Stroud was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks this season (28th) but took a sack on 8.9% compared to a 7.1% rate as a rookie.

What compounded matters is he took a sack on 15.5% of his dropbacks on third down (34th in the league) compared to a 6.1% rate as a rookie (4th-lowest).

One of the exciting aspects for Stroud coming into his second season was that he would be throwing to Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell.

Well, he only threw 66 total passes this season with all three of those receivers on the field.

He averaged 7.8 Y/A on those plays with a 4.5% touchdown rate, which are good numbers.

He also ended the season with fewer pass attempts (182) than in 2023 (190) with both Collins and Dell on the field.

We did the same questioning with Herbert when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were on and off the field and his offensive line was battered and underperforming.

That is more of a discussion for the offseason and Stroud’s dynasty stock because, entering this week, this passing game is now largely Collins or bust at this stage.

Stroud has one 20-point fantasy game on the year, and it came back in Week 4.

Houston has the second-lowest team total of the week, so anticipating a significant fantasy runout is tough to lean on.

We have seen the Chargers pass defense soften over the back half of the season to provide some hope, but Stroud will need to get there via touchdown passes and efficiency over stacking yardage.

Over their past nine games, the Chargers have allowed a 66.8% completion rate (20th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (25th) but still have only allowed 6.9 Y/A (11th).

Running Back

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