The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Broncos and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spread | -9 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 28 | ||
| 25 | 10 | Points/Gm | 30.9 | 2 |
| 18.3 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 11 |
| 62.1 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 28 |
| 64.3 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 17 |
| 5.2 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 6 |
| 4.9 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 21 |
| 43.70% | 14 | Rush% | 47.90% | 5 |
| 56.30% | 19 | Pass% | 52.10% | 28 |
| 38.79% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 41.35% | 11 |
| 61.21% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 58.65% | 22 |
Against the Spread:
- Bills: 10-7
- Broncos: 11-5-1
- Bills Home: 5-3
- Broncos Away: 5-3-1
- Bills as Favorite: 8-5
- Broncos as Underdog: 3-5-1
Game Overview
The Bills are once again the No. 2 seed in the AFC, a spot they have held for the fourth time in five seasons.
Buffalo is hosting a game in the Wild Card Round for the fifth consecutive season.
They have won each of the previous four, scoring 27 or more points in all those games.
This is a strength-on-strength showdown.
Buffalo averaged a league-high 3.35 points per drive at home this season, scoring a touchdown on a league-best 41.8% of those possessions.
That will run against the strength of this Denver defense, which allowed a league-low 1.61 points per drive this season with a touchdown on a league-low 16.6% of opponent possessions.
Denver was one of the season's best surprises, but they have not been asked to do much lifting this season.
Denver was 8-0 when favored this season and 2-7 as an underdog.
The Broncos went 2-5 against 2024 playoff teams, beating the Buccaneers in Week 3 and the Kansas City backups in Week 18 (to be fair, you can make a strong case that they should have won the first game with Kansas City).
Buffalo averaged 2.78 points per drive against 2024 playoff teams, second in the league behind the Ravens (2.82).
The Bills allowed only 1.3 sacks plus turnovers per game this season, the fewest in the NFL.
Denver averaged a league-high 5.2 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense.
Denver has to protect the football, something they were good at during the season.
The Broncos only allowed 2.5 sacks plus turnovers per game, which was fourth in the league.
Buffalo led the NFL in turnover differential (+24) and scored a league-high 128 points off turnovers this season.
They only allowed 27 points off turnovers, which was second in the league.
As good as the Denver defense has been, this game likely comes down to the Denver offense.
They have a team total below 20 points, which they will likely have to blow away to win outright.
Denver has improved steadily all season, closing seventh in points per drive over their final 7 games (2.69).
If Denver has one significant flaw outside of experience and beating top teams this season, it is its early-down offense.
The Broncos average 5.1 yards per play on early downs, ahead of only the Steelers among playoff teams.
As a result, the Broncos have faced third down 51% of their set of downs, which was ahead of only the Giants (51.2%) and Bears (52.7%).
Buffalo allowed 1.71 points per drive at home this season, eighth in the league.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen hits the postseason as the second-highest scorer in fantasy (22.3 points) per game behind Lamar Jackson.
Allen averaged only 233.2 passing yards per game (his fewest since 2019), but he made up ground in efficiency, ball protection, and avoiding sacks.
Allen’s 7.7 yards per pass attempt were his highest since 2020 while his 12.2 yards per completion were his highest since his rookie season.
His 1.2% interception rate and 2.8% sack rate were career lows, contributing to his career-best 77.2 QBR and career-best mark in EPA per play (0.26).
Allen also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns.
For the second consecutive season, Allen ran more to close the year.
Over his final seven games, Allen rushed 7.9 times for 45.7 yards per game with 9 touchdowns.
The Broncos are fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.373), but this defense has feasted on opponents that they should mush while looking softer against quality competition.
As good as Denver has been, they have not been impervious to front-end production and have allowed some spike weeks to close the season.
They allowed Justin Herbert 9.2 yards per pass attempt in Week 16 (22.2 fantasy points).
In Week 17, they allowed 412 yards, 8.4 Y/A, and 3 touchdowns to Joe Burrow (37 fantasy points).
In Week 9, they allowed Lamar Jackson 14.7 Y/A and 3 passing touchdowns (23.6 fantasy points).
In Week 13, they allowed 8.6 Y/A and 497 passing yards to Jameis Winston (33 fantasy points).
It will be interesting to see how Denver approaches this game.
They are seventh in the NFL in rate of man coverage (32.8%) and third in blitz rate (34.1%).
Allen has faced the most man coverage in the league at 34.1%.
Against man coverage, he has only completed 53.5% of his passes (26th) for 7.2 Y/A (15th), but he has an 11.9% touchdown rate (3rd).
When blitzed, Allen averages 8.2 Y/A (13th) with a league-high 11.1% touchdown rate.
However, Allen's touchdown rate against zone coverage this season is only 1.3%, 31st in the league.
The other component is Allen’s ability to run.
From Weeks 10-17 (that same stretch we outlined where Allen was running more), he led all quarterbacks with 143 yards rushing against man coverage with 3 touchdown runs.
Allen has been exceptional in these Wild Card games.
Over his past four opening postseason games, Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all of them with 3 or more passing scores in each of the past three.
Bo Nix: Nix capped a stellar rookie season by completing over 70% of his passes in each of the final three games of the year and by throwing multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the final eight games.
Nix closed the year throwing 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, adding 430 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing.
Nix ended the year as QB8 in fantasy points per game (18.7).
Sean Payton targeted Nix to mold in a proxy of his new version of Drew Brees with athleticism, and he set that plan in motion in year one.
There was an emphasis on having Nix get rid of the football.
28.7% of his throws were at or behind the line scrimmage.
Only Patrick Mahomes (30.8%) and Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) had a higher rate.
Nix led the NFL with 7 passing touchdowns on those throws at or behind the line.
When Nix got rid of the football within 2.5 seconds of the snap, he was 10th in rating (103.9), throwing 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.
His 5.6% touchdown rate on those throws was ninth in the league.
When he was forced to hold the football, some rookie-season warts cropped up.
When holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds, Nix dipped to 21st in rating (84.1), throwing 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
His 4.7% touchdown rate on those throws dipped to 20th in the league while his 3.7% interception rate was 24th.
This will be a tall task for Nix on the road in Buffalo.
The Bills have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season.
Sean McDermott has been tough on rookie quarterbacks.
First-year passers have a 3-10 record against the Bills, and one of those wins was this past week with Buffalo sitting starters.
On the road in Buffalo, that record is 2-9 (0-2 in the playoffs) with those passers completing 58% of their passes for 9 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
Rookie quarterbacks overall in the Wild Card round have not been a complete disaster, going 6-8 (but 3-6 on the road) since the NFL expanded to 32 teams.
In those games, rookie passers have completed 55% of their passes for 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
Running Back
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More Wild Card Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Chargers @ Texans | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Rams -- FREE | Monday -- 8 p.m. ET |
