The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.

LA RamsRank@Tampa BayRank
3Spread-3
19.75Implied Total22.75
16.928Points/Gm18.325
22.418Points All./Gm18.96
61.620Plays/Gm64.510
56.11Opp. Plays/Gm64.321
4.831Off. Yards/Play5.224
5.514Def. Yards/Play5.17
34.11%31Rush%31.59%32
65.89%2Pass%68.41%1
44.02%22Opp. Rush %42.80%19
55.98%11Opp. Pass %57.20%14
  • The Rams have scored 42.9% of the points scored in their games this season, ahead of only the Steelers (37.9%).
  • The Rams have scored more than 20 points just once so far through seven games. They scored fewer than 20 points just twice all of 2021.
  • The Buccaneers have scored 22 or fewer points in all but one game so far. They scored 22 or fewer points just three times in 2021.
  • 38.7% of the Tampa Bay scoring plays (12-of-31) have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Tampa Bay has converted 5-of-50 (10.0%) third downs needing seven or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. 
  • Tom Brady is averaging 4.4 yards per pass attempt on those downs, ahead of only Zach Wilson (4.3 Y/A).
  • Tampa Bay is just one of three teams remaining without a run of 20 or more yards on the season, joining the Steelers and Broncos.
  • The Rams have just one run of 20 or more yards and it was from Cooper Kupp.
  • 18.6% of the yardage gained by the Buccaneers has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
  • 23.0% of the yardage gained by the Rams has come via rushing, 31st in the league.
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Quarterback

Tom Brady: Things continue to be a struggle for Brady in real football and for fantasy. Through eight weeks, Brady has been a QB1 just twice on the season. Even worse, he has been the QB16 or lower in six of those games. 

There is no doubt Brady has been unlucky in the touchdown department, but he should be being handled as a QB2 for fantasy. 

Brady has thrown for 319 yards per game over the past five weeks but has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in four of those games. Brady has now thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in every game except for one this season as his 2.6% touchdown rate would easily be a career-low if static for the remainder of the season. That rate is more than half of his career 5.4% touchdown rate.

Brady will look to pick things up against a Rams defense that has not lived up to expectations this season. The Rams are dead last in the NFL in pressure rate (22.9%) and 26th in rate of dropbacks with a hit on the quarterback (11.7%).

They are 17th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.412), 21st in yards allowed per attempt (7.4 Y/A), and 19th in touchdown rate (3.9%) surrendered to opposing passers.

Matthew Stafford: From one disappointing fantasy performer to another, Stafford has produced just one QB1 scoring week on the season over seven starts with a high scoring week as the QB11 in a given week. 

Stafford has also thrown one or fewer touchdown pass in every game this season but one. Just 36.8% of Stafford’s completions have gained 10 or more yards, ahead of only Kenny Pickett, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, and Aaron Rodgers.

Stafford is stuck as a 2QB option, with less optimism than there is with Brady. The Bucs are banged up defensively to open the door here, as they have allowed 15.1 and 17.5 passing points the past two weeks to P.J. Walker and Lamar Jackson. 

Running Back

Leonard Fournette: We have started to see the fragility with Fournette creep into fantasy results recently. We have long known that the Bucs just cannot run the football. Fournette has rushed for 65 yards or fewer in seven straight games, averaging an anemic 2.8 YPC over that span. 

Tampa Bay has started to abandon the run altogether as a result as Fournette has single-digit carries in three of his past five games. 

We could live with inefficient rushing because Fournette was dominating backfield touches and catching a ton of passes. Both have now started to be compromised. 

Fournette has 58.8% and 63.2% of the backfield touches over the past two weeks after 79.4% through six weeks. Over the past two weeks, Fournette has just five catches in total after catching five or more in each of the previous four games. 

If Fournette is not going to catch passes or run with efficiency, then we have to get touchdowns from him like we did last week. He still has a firm grip on the goal line opportunities here, but even with that touchdown last Thursday, he only salvaged an RB2 performance since he had 12 touches for 58 total yards. 

Fournette is now a touchdown-dependent RB2, needing to run hot in the reception department again.

The Rams have struggled against the run, allowing 4.45 YPC to backs (20th), but with the way the Bucs are running the football, it is hard to say that matchups overly matter much. The Rams have also only allowed three rushing touchdowns to backs, which has them seventh in rushing points allowed per game (11.9) to backfields.

Rams RBs: This backfield continues to be the football equivalent of a tree falling in the woods with nobody around. Rams backs combined to turn 23 touches into 76 yards last week. 

Los Angeles running backs have a 29.5% success rate rushing, the lowest rate in the league. Combined, this backfield is averaging 0.84 yards prior to contact per carry (31st) and 2.40 yards after contact per carry (30th).

Ronnie Rivers led the backfield with 12 touches for 36 yards, with the Rams citing that Darrell Henderson was dealing with an illness late last week that limited him. 

Henderson still played a team 24 snaps but managed just 30 yards and six touches. Henderson hasn’t had more than 52 yards in a game since Week 1.

Malcolm Brown had five touches for 10 yards and served as the goal line back. 

The team did not trade Cam Akers and he is expected to return to the team this week and potentially be active this weekend.

The Bucs have struggled defending the run of late, allowing 176 yards rushing to Carolina backs in Week 7 and then 155 yards rushing to Baltimore backs a week ago. If you believe the Rams can exploit that trend, then make a dart throw.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Kupp sustained a scare to close last week’s game, suffering an ankle injury on an irrelevant play with the game closing. Kupp seems to have avoided a serious injury and is expected to be good for this weekend but keep an eye on things throughout the week.

Kupp had another eight catches for 79 yards and a score last week on 12 targets, sustaining his high floor with upside.

Kupp has enjoyed this particular matchup, having games of 9-183-1, 9-96-2, 11-145-0, and 9-121-1 over his career versus the Bucs, with the front two of those lines coming last season. The Bucs are also allowing 9.8 yards per target to opposing slot receivers (27th) and 13.9 yards per reception (30th) to interior wideouts. 

Kupp is a locked-in WR1 when on the field, with the only thing hanging around here is if his ankle is not 100%.

Mike Evans: Evans is coming off a season-high 123 yards last week, catching six of his 11 targets. Evans has now received 26 targets in total over the past two games. 

The Rams do play zone coverage on a league-high 86.3% of snaps, which has carried a bit of signal for Tampa Bay pass catchers this season. 

Against zone coverage, Evans has seen 15.2% of the team targets and had been targeted on 18.8% of his routes. Against man coverage, Evans has seen a team-high 24.7% of the targets while being targeted on 30.6% of his routes. 

Playing with Brady, Evans has had games of 8-119-1, 8-106-0, and 5-49-1 in this matchup against the Rams, so there is some relief in not overplaying those splits for Evans as a WR1 option. The Bucs have developed a thin target tree between Evans and Chris Godwin, so the targets should still be here for Evans.

Chris Godwin (TRUST): Godwin pulled in 6-of-11 targets for 75 yards last Thursday. He now has double-digit targets in each of the past three games, receiving 32.4%, 27.1%, and 26.2% of the team targets in those games. 

As noted, no team plays more zone coverage than the Rams. Where Evans has been the popular target against man coverage, Godwin is that player versus zone. 

Against zone coverage, Godwin has a team-high 20.2% of the team targets, 2.16 yards per route run, and has been targeted on 30.6% of his routes against zone. The only players to have a higher target per route run against zone coverage this season are Tyreek Hill (37.1%) and Cooper Kupp (30.7%).

Against man coverage, Godwin has been erased. He has seen just 5.6% of the team targets and has been targeted on 10.4% of his routes, averaging a paltry 0.58 yards per route run. 

We are still chasing that first touchdown for Godwin this season, but leaning on his splits versus zone looks here, we could get that and his first WR1 scoring week of the season.

Allen Robinson: Robinson secured 5-of-7 targets for 54 yards Sunday, giving him back-to-back games with five receptions and double-digit PPR points. That bar is telling in how hard of a season it has been for Robinson, but those are at least usable lines as a WR4 option as opposed to the unusable weeks we were getting prior. 

The Bucs have not been a favorable draw for opposing boundary wideouts, where Robinson plays 73% of his snaps. Even with the moving parts in their secondary, Tampa Bay is allowing 5.8 yards per target (second) and a 58.0% catch rate (fifth) to wideouts on the perimeter. 

Van Jefferson: Jefferson returned to the field last week, but he was not targeted a single time on 23 routes. Jefferson had games of 4-42-0 and 2-29-0 in this matchup a year ago, so he still is a complete dart throw in lineups this weekend. 

Julio Jones: Jones caught his first touchdown of the season with Tampa Bay on Thursday, patching up two catches for just 21 yards on four targets. It was the first game action Jones has seen since Week 4, so he can improve on his 57% snap share and 56.3% route participation rate, but he is still only an option for the thinnest of rosters.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee: Higbee has fallen off here the past two games, posting lines of 1-7-0 and 2-15-0. Higbee has gotten banged up in each of those games, but he also has been asked to block more than ever as the Rams are attempting to adjust offensively. 

Higbee has run a pass route on 58.8% and 41.7% of the team dropbacks in those games, playing in pass protection on 29.4% of his passing snaps. 

That usage has bottomed out a player solely living on volume since Higbee does not have a touchdown while averaging 8.7 yards per catch and 5.6 yards per target. 

The Bucs have been a solid matchup for tight ends. They are allowing a 76.7% catch rate (29th), 8.1 yards per target (24th), and 6.7% touchdown rate (23rd) to the position. 

Higbee had games of 4-51-0 and 5-40-1 in this matchup a year ago. Despite the recent usage, the matchup keeps the lights on for Higbee as a fringe TE1 option.

Cade Otton: Otton has played 94%, 81%, and 91% of the snaps in the three games Brate has missed, posting games of 6-43-0, 4-64-0, and 2-15-0. Last week’s line was disappointing, but Otton did have a touchdown reception called back due to penalty.

Otton has the usage to be a floor based TE2 in full-PPR and TE Premium formats, but this is not an overly exciting matchup.  The Rams are allowing a 59.4% catch rate to opposing tight ends (third) and 6.9 yards per target (13th) to the position.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PHI at HOU | BUF at NYJ | CAR at CIN | IND at NE | GB at DET | MIA at CHI | MIN at WAS | LVR at JAX | LAC at ATL | SEA at ARI | LAR at TB | TEN at KC | BAL at NO