Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Prop Bets & Predictions

NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 6 Picks

• Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
• Jahan Dotson Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-108)
• Germie Bernard Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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NFL Week 6 Best Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

In a game and a half since Tyler Huntley took over for an injured Lamar Jackson, Henry has carried the ball 38 times for 136 yards.

The Ravens had a -4.8% pass rate over expected (PROE) in Week 5.

For perspective, the Giants rank 29th in PROE at -4.5%.

The Huntley-led Ravens should run through King Henry, and the bulldozing running back is built to handle the load and is unlikely to be slowed by the Browns.

Cleveland has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game (106.8) and the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) to running backs this season.

Bucky Irving (89 rushing yards), Jaylen Warren (93 rushing yards), and Braelon Allen (116 rushing yards) exceeded 87.5 rushing yards against the Browns in Week 2, Week 4, and Week 5, respectively.

Allen is the football equivalent of your mom telling you that you have King Henry at home.

Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger are listed as questionable for this week's game.

Either being absent would be a plus for Henry's rushing outlook.

Rich pointed out in the Week 6 Worksheet that running backs have steamrolled the Browns for 5.3 yards per carry without Graham on the field since last year, and they've recorded 5.2 yards per carry without Schwesinger on the field since last season.

Henry should eclipse 87.5 rushing yards against the Browns even if Graham or Schwesinger suit up, but he'd face less resistance without either or both of them.

NFL Week 6 Best Prop Bet: Jahan Dotson Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-108)

Will Dotson have a reception against the Bears?

That's essentially the question for his longest reception over/under.

Michael Penix made his season debut in Week 3.

In three games with Penix starting, Dotson has a 65.1% snap share, 61.6% route participation rate, 12.5% target share, 19% target rate per route, 33.5% air yard share, and an 18.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

He's averaging 1.7 receptions per game, 39.7 receiving yards per game, 2.25 yards per route run (Y/RR), 11.9 yards per target, and 23.8 yards per reception.

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dotson has 1 target behind the line of scrimmage, 3 targets 0-9 yards downfield, 8 targets 10-19 yards downfield, and 4 targets 20-plus yards downfield.

He has 3 receptions in the 10-19-yard range and 2 receptions on targets 20-plus yards.

The Bears are also a favorable matchup for Dotson's longest reception over.

Chicago has allowed the most yards per target (10.5) and 16.0 yards per reception to wide receivers this season.

Dotson has had at least 1 reception in all three of Penix's starts, and he's had a reception over 15.5 yards in back-to-back games.

As long as he catches a pass against the Bears, it will likely be longer than 15.5 yards.

NFL Week 6 Best Prop Bet: Germie Bernard Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Bernard has been a target-earner in his limited playing time this year.

The rookie wide receiver has a 48.1% snap share and 45.1% route participation rate this season, but he has a 21% target rate per route.

Bernard's playing-time outlook already got a bump before Week 5 when the Steelers placed Michael Pittman Jr. on injured reserve.

Roman Wilson then left the Week 5 game early with a finger injury, and he's now out of the mix.

In Week 5, Bernard had a 92.6% snap share, 78.8% route participation rate, 25.8% target share, 31% target rate per route, 15.0% first-read rate, 47.5% air yard share, 7.1-yard aDOT, 6 receptions, 80 receiving yards, and 3.08 Y/RR.

Bernard showed inside-outside versatility last week, with a 65.4% slot rate and 30.8% wide rate.

He even had a 3.8% inline rate.

Bernard's versatility should give Mike McCarthy ways to get the young receiver open.

The rookie can also be an answer for Aaron Rodgers against the blitz.

The Buccaneers rank fourth in blitz rate (41.6%) this year, and they're second in blitz rate (40.2%) since 2024.

Bernard's shallow aDOT is a stylistic fit against the blitz, and he has 7 targets on 25 routes (28% target rate per route) against the blitz this season.

Finally, our PROE tool shows the Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, facing a 5.2% PROE this year, ranking fourth.

Bernard should clear the not-particularly-high bar of 40.5 receiving yards against Tampa Bay.