We break down why you should take the OVER on Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the over
Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Brandon Aiyuk:
- 749.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
- 775.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
It would take a fairly significant step backward (or an injury) for Brandon Aiyuk to land under his receiving yards prop, after he reached at least 748 yards in each of his first two seasons in the league.
- Potential increased workload
- Efficiency after the catch makes him ideal fit in Shanahan’s offense
#1 Reason to Bet the Over
Aiyuk went over these numbers last year (826 yards) and San Francisco made few changes to the receiving corps. At a minimum, his 17% target share should remain steady.
It’s also possible Aiyuk’s usage increases due to the injury history of George Kittle and a potential usage regression for Deebo Samuel, who was probably overworked last year (180 targets plus carries).
#2 Reason to Bet the Over
Samuel might be the perfect receiver for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but Aiyuk is an ideal fit as well and that should give us increased confidence he maintains a significant role.
Shanahan likes to put his receivers in position to create after the catch, and that is Aiyuk’s greatest strength.
Based on route-adjusted data, Aiyuk picked up 32% more yards after the catch than expected last season, the eighth-best rate in the league, per TruMedia.
This has been a consistent trait in Aiyuk’s game dating back to college, when he gained 39% more yards after the catch than expected in his final season at Arizona State.
For this reason, if the 49ers scale back Samuel’s usage, expect Aiyuk to benefit.
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