Betting the Under for Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Player Prop Bet

We break down why you should take the UNDER on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop: why you should bet the under

Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Derrick Henry:

1349.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
1350.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
1350.5 rushing yards DraftKings Sportsbook

Based on his age and recent injury, it looks like a good bet to take the under on these rushing yards props for Derrick Henry.

Expected to have a smaller workload
Inconsistent offensive line was not addressed in offseason

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

The 28-year-old Henry is returning from a broken foot and has logged 1,185 touches over the last four seasons. Despite his historic production in recent years, Tennessee knows it can’t continue to lean on Henry for such an extreme workload.

The selection of Hassan Haskins in the fourth round 一 a ball carrier with a similar running style to Henry 一 was likely a sign Tennessee intends to lighten Henry’s workload in an effort to keep him fresh.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

Tennessee’s offensive line struggled last season and few changes were made, aside from the addition of third-round rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere.

Tennessee running backs picked up three or more yards before contact at the third lowest rate in 2021. For Henry, his rate of gaining at least three yards before contact dropped from 25% in 2020 to 18% last season.

Additionally, Henry gained just 0.95 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 43rd among running backs with at least 100 carries.

Henry was still productive despite the poor offensive line play last season, but he’s now a year older and returning from an injury. As he ages, he’ll become more dependent on his offensive line to clear room, and this unit probably won’t help him much in 2022.

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