We break down why you should take the OVER on Jaylen Waddle receiving yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the over
Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Jaylen Waddle:
- 904.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
- 925.5 receiving yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 925.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
It took only 16 games for Jaylen Waddle to clear the 1,000-yard mark a season ago, and he should be expected to replicate that production in his second year in Miami and hit the over on these props.
- Significant upgrade in offensive coaching
- Skill set is perfectly suited for Mike McDaniel’s offense
#1 Reason to Bet the Over
Waddle’s production in 2021 came despite an incoherent offensive game plan which did not put him in the best position to succeed.
The greatest strength Waddle brings to the table is his ability to produce after the catch, yet Miami rarely found ways to get Waddle the ball in space.
Based on route-adjusted data from TruMedia, Waddle produced 13.5% less yardage than expected after the catch last season 一 a massive dropoff from his college production (44% above expected).
Simply by improving the game plan, Waddle should be a more efficient pass-catcher for the Dolphins under new head coach Mike McDaniel.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over
Not only is McDaniel expected to bring a better offensive game play to Miami, it’s an offense perfectly suited for Waddle’s skill set as a creator after the catch.
McDaniel will run a version of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which relies heavily on putting the team’s best playmaker in position to do damage after the catch.
Based on route-adjusted data, no team created more yards after the catch above expected than the 49ers in 2021 一 meanwhile the Dolphins ranked dead last (16% below expected).
Even if Waddle doesn’t replicate last year’s usage (140 targets), expect his yards per reception (9.8) to take a substantial leap McDaniel’s offense. Deebo Samuel (18.2 yards per reception) and Brandon Aiyuk (14.8) have demonstrated the type of per-reception production we should expect from Waddle this season.
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