Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 5 Picks

• Steelers -2.5
• Jets Under 20.5 Points

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NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Steelers -2.5

The Steelers have some contextual factors working in their favor against the Colts this week.

First, they're at home, where they are 8-3 in the regular season since last year.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Pittsburgh has a +28 point differential in those 11 home games.

The Colts have struggled on the road under head coach Shane Steichen.

Indianapolis is 11-16 on the road, with a -61 point differential in road tilts since 2023.

Second, the Steelers have a rest advantage.

They played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, and the Colts played on Sunday morning, which brings me to the third contextual advantage.

Indianapolis played in London last week.

Moving beyond the context, Indianapolis' offense has overachieved.

Per TruMedia, the Colts rank 13th in offensive points per game (25.5) and 13th in points per drive (2.27), but they're tied for 30th in yards per play (4.5) and 19th in expected points added (EPA) per play.

The Steelers are 26th in scoring offense (17.5 points per game), 28th in points per drive (1.49), and tied for 26th in EPA per play but tied for 20th in yards per play (5.0).

As lousy as their scoring average is, the gap between Pittsburgh's and Indianapolis' offenses probably isn't as large as it appears.

The Steelers have a better defense, though.

Indianapolis is tied for 22nd in scoring defense (26.0 points allowed per game), 22nd in points allowed per drive (2.26), 31st in yards allowed per play (6.2), tied for 23rd in success rate, and 27th in pressure rate.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't been particularly good on unpressured snaps, but he still has 6.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) on 109 unpressured dropbacks.

Jaylen Warren can also find success against the Colts on the ground and through the air.

Indianapolis has allowed 4.34 yards per carry and 8.43 yards per target to running backs this season.

The Steelers should be enough on offense to complement their quality defense and cover the 2.5-point spread at home this week.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Jets Under 20.5 Points

If you've consumed any national media coverage of Week 4, you're probably aware of the Jets' offensive ineptitude last week.

According to StatHead, Gang Green's 32 offensive plays were the fourth-fewest in a game in their tracking history, which goes back to 1920.

The Jets have missed the dynamism of Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell.

Neither player has practiced this week, and in two games without them, Gang Green has averaged 18.0 points per game and 5.29 yards per play.

The game's pace should be a slog, too.

The Browns rank 13th in neutral pace but only 25th when trailing and 29th when leading.

Meanwhile, the Jets rank 27th in neutral pace, 30th when leading (last, since the Titans and Dolphins haven't run any plays with a lead), and 22nd when trailing.

The Browns don't have an elite defense, but it's adequate.

Cleveland ranks 19th in scoring defense (23.8 points allowed per game), tied for 19th in points allowed per drive (2.16), tied for 15th in yards allowed per play (5.4), 21st in success rate, and fifth in pressure rate.

Cleveland's top-five pressure rate is noteworthy for this matchup.

Among 36 quarterbacks with 100 pressured dropbacks in the regular season since last year, Geno Smith ranks 34th in EPA per play, ahead of only Cam Ward and Joe Flacco.

This game has ugly written all over it, and 20.5 points is a bar too high for the Jets to clear.