While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We have already looked at the prop lines set for Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, the running backs for both teams, and the pass catchers for the Rams. With that, we are jumping over to the props for the pass catchers on the Bengals side.
As was the case with the Rams, the injury for C.J. Uzomah has prevented lines being posted for the tight ends, leaving us with receiver-centric props to look at. As the week progresses, look out for any props involving Uzomah or other books that have lines for him and Drew Sample.
Kicking things off with the wunderkind Ja’Marr Chase, you can see that he has only hit the over on this reception line in 40% of his games this season, yet the over sits at -150 compared to +110 towards the under. Chase does has at least six receptions in two of the three playoff games but has fallen short in seven of his past 11 games. I do not see a lot of value in the over here.
The Rams have allowed 5.7 receptions per game to opposing WR1 options, so this line is right on the money there.
Tee Higgins has hit six receptions in a game at a higher rate of games played this season than Chase has, including in each of the past two games in which he has received 25.7% (7-96-0) and 27.8% (6-103-0) of the team targets.
Of course, we still have no clue how the Rams will deploy Jalen Ramsey as I broke down in the Worksheet for this game, but the assumption is that he will find Chase more than any other Bengal on Sunday.
If so, Higgins’s over (+110) is more appealing than going after Chase’s over. If Ramsey does end more in the area of Chase, that would mean that Darious Williams (5’9” and 187 pounds) would continue to be a target, especially against the 6’4”, 215-pound Higgins. In the playoffs teams have gone the other direction, targeting Williams a team-high 32 times in coverage.
Tyler Boyd is gaining a lot of steam throughout the week as being a pivotal component for this game, but you can see how he has been impacted by the arrival of Chase and ascension of Higgins in 2021. Boyd has five or more receptions in just 6-of-19 games played. That is why the over here sits at +120 while the under is -155, but if looking to make a play on that, the Rams have allowed 7.6 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers from the slot, which is 24th in the league.
From a yardage stance, Chase’s rate of hitting the over (-115) is exactly the same as his rate of hitting his reception line, but the odds are not nearly as lopsided if you do choose to play for a big game. Chase has cleared this line in four of his past five full games played. Even with Ramsey on the field, we have seen Justin Jefferson (116 yards), Deebo Samuel (95 yards), and Mike Evans (119 yards) find their way to productive games as lead wideouts over the final stretch of the season.
Once again, Higgins has been more successful at hitting his current line here. He also has hit the over (-115) in six of his past nine games. If you believe that Ramsey will find his way to Chase often, Higgins is +240 to have 100 or more receiving yards. Over that previous nine-game sample, Higgins has averaged 94.9 yards per game with five 100-yard games.
Boyd has a significantly lower total than Chase and Higgins and you can see how his rate of hitting this number has declined in 2021 as the clear third wheel compared to his career rate. Boyd has hit 40 yards receiving in eight games this season, posting 36 yards or fewer in each of his past four games. Again, the Rams have been vulnerable to wideouts out of the slot, allowing 99.9 yards per game to wideouts from the slot, which is 26th in the league. Unlike his reception line which has a wide gap in odds, however, Boyd sits at -115 in either direction you choose to go.
I do not see a lot of value in this department for the Bengals pass catchers. Chase has a reception of 28 or more yards in 11-of-20 games this season, but there has been a shift in his deployment as the season has progressed. After posting a catch of 28 or more yards in each of his opening seven games of the season, Chase has hit the over here (-110) in just four of the 13 games since. Over that span, Chase’s depth of target has dipped from 15.2 yards down to 10.1 yards while he has gone from 21.5 yards per catch to 14.8 per catch. In the playoffs, Chase has an aDOT of 8.5 yards downfield, needing to use his yards after the catch ability to turn in more splash plays. If the Rams do get overly aggressive in pressing the attack on Joe Burrow, Ryan McCrystal laid out that opening the opportunity for Chase to hit a splash play and get to the over here.
Higgins has trended in the opposite direction as a byproduct of teams trying to play over top of Chase and the Bengals finding newer ways to get their rookie wideout the football. Higgins has an 11.7-yard aDOT in the playoffs and has a catch of 25 or more yards in six of his past nine games. If looking for an alternative way to play a long gain for Higgins, Ryan McCrystal laid out why taking Higgins’s longest versus Odell Beckham may be a better path to take.
Boyd’s longest reception in the playoffs is just 10 yards while he has fallen short of this 18.5 yard long in 11-of-19 games played this year, but for of those did come over the final five weeks of the regular season if looking for a silver lining to play the over (-110) here.