While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
Rushing Attempts, Mixon & Akers: Super Bowl Prop Bet
Joe Mixon has been a workhorse for the Bengals, carrying the ball 17 or more times in 12-of-19 games this season.
It is still tough to suggest there’s a lot of value here going in on the over here since we’re talking about attempts attached to an underdog, but he has hit this 16.5 rushing attempts line in nearly two-thirds of his games while the only time that Mixon comes off the field is on third down passing situations.
Also, only four individual running backs have bested this line against the Rams this season since they often play ahead on the scoreboard and have one of the league’s best run defenses.
The line for Cam Akers is more interesting. He has carried the ball 5, 17, 24, and 13 times since returning to the field.
The odds are favoring the over of 16.5 (-125) hitting, but with Sony Michel involved and Henderson returning to an unknown role, the under (-105) is in play.
Plus, Akers still does have a shoulder injury that limited his action in the NFC Championship and held him out of practices all last week.
We have seen that the Rams want to give the keys to Akers and believe in his talent, but the situation is muddy enough that any touches for Michel and Henderson can keep this from going over.
To tack on, only five running backs have hit this over against Cincinnati this season.
Note: MGM does not even have rushing lines posted for the ancillary backs on these teams, so shop around on different sites if looking for lines on Sony Michel, Samaje Perine, or Darrell Henderson on the ground. Not having any rushing lines for Perine is more than fine since he has just two rushing attempts over the past six games.
Rushing Yards, Mixon & Akers: Super Bowl Prop Bet
Joe Mixon has averaged 73.4 rushing yards per game this season, but the yards have been tougher to come by as the season has progressed.
Mixon has cleared this line of 60.5 yards just twice over his past eight games, averaging 58.9 yards rushing per game over that span.
There has been a lot of conversation this week about the Cincinnati offensive line handling the Los Angeles front in pass protection, but there is also a significant impact in the running game.
The Rams have allowed just six backs to hit this total of 60.5 yards in a game this season. They are allowing 3.65 yards per carry to running backs (third) and just 0.91 yards to backs before contact (also third).
Cam Akers has a higher line than Mixon here (63.5 -115) and it all really comes down to how you are betting on his workload in the Super Bowl since the Rams do have a better matchup here than they have had in any game since Akers returned to the lineup.
Akers has only rushed for 55 yards or fewer yards in all four games he has played this season, but over that span, the Rams have faced the 49ers twice (second in run success rate allowed), the Buccaneers (eighth), and the Cardinals (13th).
All three of those teams also rank in the top four in EPA allowed per rushing play. The Bengals are 18th in success rate (41.1%) and 15th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.07).
Cincinnati also has allowed 4.44 yards per carry to backs out of 11 personnel (15th), including allowing 5.17 yards per carry on 24 carries against 11 personnel in the playoffs. 47 of Akers’s 59 carries have come out of 11 personnel while 76.6% of all running back carries for the Rams have come out of 11.
If you are skeptical about Akers’s workload, the raw rushing attempts are a better under to play than the rushing yards -110 line here.
Longest Rush, Mixon & Akers: Super Bowl Prop Bet
Both of these backs carry the same line at 13.5 yards, but each carries different odds. Joe Mixon is currently at -110 towards the over and -115 on the under.
He has a long run of 14 or more yards in 11-of-19 games this season. The Rams have allowed 14 runs this season of 14 or more yards to a running back.
You do not have to factor in workload heavily here for Cam Akers (although you still want as many bites at the apple as possible) since you are looking for one play to get there.
Akers has a long run of 15 yards on his limited sample this season, but as highlighted above, the Rams have run into a number of strong defenses since his return and this matchup is more favorable.
Current odds have the over at -120 while the Bengals have allowed 22 carries of 14 or more yards to backs this season., including four different running backs to have a longer run than this line in the playoffs.
Receptions Made, Mixon & Akers: Super Bowl Prop Bet
This is not a game that involves two teams that utilize their backfields heavily in the passing game. No running back here has hit their current line in at least half of their games this season and all carry far lower rates of hitting those lines over their careers.
Joe Mixon has hit this total in 9-of-19 games, but he does have at least three receptions in each of his past five games played.
The ball could come out quick here to help him out in that department. The over sits at -135 compared to +100 for the under.
Backfields have averaged 5.0 combined receptions per game against the Rams and here we also get our first line for Samaje Perine. Perine had three catches in the AFC Championship after having one catch over the opening two playoff games.
Perine’s over does come in at +105. He does have at least two catches in eight of his past 13 games played as he has settled into the role of playing on passing situations.
Perine has 110 pass routes on third down this season compared to just 33 for Mixon while Mixon has a 290-73 edge in routes run on first and second downs.
If you are a Rams backer in the game, Perine’s receiving overs are something to pair with that bet.
Cam Akers has caught three or more passes in just three career games, with one of them this season. His career-high over his limited sample is four catches in a game, which is why the under sits at -250.
The Rams are also 31st in target rate to their backs (12%). If looking for a potential matchup carrot to chase the over (+110), the Bengals have allowed 6.4 receptions per game to running backs.
Receiving Yards, Mixon & Akers: Super Bowl Prop Bet
With low reception totals come low yardage totals for these backs. Samaje Perine has been the most productive at hitting his current line this season, clearing 8.5 yards receiving in 11-of-19 games this season.
You may only need one grab to get there, so if you are taking the over on his receptions, you are going to want to pair that with this line.
Joe Mixon has hit this line (25.5 -115) in five straight games after topping 25.5 yards out of the backfield in three of the opening 14 games this season.
If playing Mixon’s over here, you also will want to pair it with the reception line. In the right games that Mixon has hit this total, he has also hit his reception line in seven of those games with a low of three receptions.
Cam Akers has 10, 40, 20, and two receiving yards in his four games since returning to the lineup and has hit this line (15.5 -110) in four of his past seven starts.
The Rams have not used their backs a lot in the passing game, but once again if you are looking for matchup elevation, the Bengals are allowing 45.2 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields, 27th in the league.
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