While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We have already looked at the prop lines set for Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and the running backs for both teams. With that, we are jumping over to the props for the pass catchers on the Rams side.
Receptions for Kupp, Beckham, Jefferson: Super Bowl Prop Bets
The first thing you will notice is that with the injury status of Tyler Higbee, there are only lines up at BetMGM for the three wideouts. Keep on the look out for Kendall Blanton props here or shop around to other sites with a deeper pool.
Cooper Kupp enters the Super Bowl with a gaudy reception line. The under (-145) is being priced in but this is exactly on his seasonal average per game this year.
This line does not have a lot of value in my opinion, but if looking at the over (+105) paired with other Kupp overs or his MVP ticket, it is a line that he has cleared in 11-of-20 games this season. The Bengals also allowed 8.1 receptions per game to opposing slot wide receivers, 26th in the league.
Odell Beckham has caught six or more passes in just three games this season. The under (-150) has priced that in, but if looking at the over (+110), all three of those games have come as a member of the Rams while Beckham has hit that threshold in each of the past two games played.
Beckham has now received 22.2%, 22.2%, and 26.2% of the team looks in the passing game in the playoffs, which his NFC Championship target share the highest he has had with the Rams.
Van Jefferson has hit this over (+120) in half of his games played this season, but he does have two or fewer receptions in seven of his past eight games played. Jefferson has still run a pass route on 86% of the team dropbacks over that stretch, so he will be out there in full capacity.
Receiving Yards for Kupp, Beckham, Jefferson: Super Bowl Prop Bets
If you are looking for some added context in just how awesome Cooper Kupp’s season has been, he has a yardage line of 106.5 yards that not only sits at -115 in either direction but is a line that Kupp has cleared in two-thirds of his games played this year.
Even in the seven games that Kupp has failed to hit this line, he has averaged 85.6 yards in those games with just two of them below 92 yards receiving. Cincinnati has allowed 99.9 yards per game to opposing receivers out of the slot.
Odell Beckham is averaging 45.4 yards per game with 52.3 per game while with the Rams. This line is bumped up a bit over those averages since Beckham has seen more targets in the playoffs and has 69 and 113 yards over his past two games played.
But he also has held a low yardage floor all season. Even with the Rams, Beckham has had fewer than 40 yards in six of his 11 games.
Jefferson’s yardage total looks like the best bet of this trio. Jefferson has hit the over (-115) in 65% of his games played this season. Even over this slow stretch in which Jefferson has not caught many passes over the past eight games, Jefferson has averaged 32.5 yards per game and hit this total in half of his games.
With his route participation and the types of routes he runs (more on this in a bit), this is a low number that Jefferson can hit on two or fewer receptions.
Longest Reception for Kupp, Beckham, Jefferson: Super Bowl Prop Bets
The Bengals are 20th in yards allowed per target (8.1) to wideouts while ranking 27th in catch rate (65.7%) allowed to the position, so the Rams wideouts can make plays here.
Cooper Kupp has a reception of at least 29 yards in 15-of-20 games played this year (-115 to the over) while he has the most opportunity of all players in this game to turn in a long gain through the air.
Beckham has a catch of at least 24 yards in five of his 11 games with the Rams and in two of the three games in the postseason, but his line is not as strong for chasing as it is for Kupp and Jefferson based on seasonal rates.
Jefferson has a catch of at least 18 yards in 16-of-20 games. Even over that eight-game stretch highlighted in the open when his receptions have dropped off, Jefferson still has hit this over in six of those eight games.
That is due to the routes that he is running. Jefferson leads the team in vertical routes, running 120 routes this season that are go, double move, or post routes. Both Kupp (54) and Beckham (55) have combined for 109 of those routes.
As a byproduct, Jefferson leads the team in targets (12) on throws 30 or more yards downfield. Matthew Stafford has the most pass attempts (38) and completions (17) of 30 or more air yards on the season. The Bengals are 24th in the league in completion rate allowed on those throws (37.1%).
Complete Analysis for Super Bowl Props
We’ve got you covered for Super Bowl 56 prop bets with detailed analysis and breakdowns for the most popular bets offered:
Best Longshot Props Bets: MVP, 1st TD Scorer, & More
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Matthew Stafford Super Bowl Prop Bets: Analysis & Breakdown
Comparing career and 2021 rates for Joe Burrow against his quarterback props for the Super Bowl.
Joe Burrow Super Bowl Prop Bets: Analysis & Breakdown
Comparing career and 2021 rates for Joe Burrow against his quarterback props for the Super Bowl
Best Super Bowl WR Bets: Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase
Receiving props to consider for the top two receivers in the Super Bowl
Best Super Bowl RB Prop Bets For Cam Akers & Sony Michel
Yardage over/under and touchdown odds for the Los Angeles Rams RB duo.
Super Bowl MVP Odds: Favorites, Sleepers & Long Shots
Looking at the history of Super Bowl MVP winners and looking over the favorites and some long-shot options.
Best Super Bowl RB Prop Bets For Joe Mixon
Rushing yards over/under prop bet for Joe Mixon in the Super Bowl.
Best Super Bowl QB Prop Bets for Joe Burrow
Get the best Super Bowl quarterback prop bets for Joe Burrow, including Total Passing Yards and Longest Rushing.
Best Super Bowl QB Prop Bets For Matthew Stafford
Quarterback prop bets for Matthew Stafford including interception over/under and total rushing yards.
Super Bowl 56 Prop Bet Tracker: Opening & Current Lines
We track opening & current lines for all Super Bowl 56 player prop bets so you don’t have to — across passing, rushing & receiving prop bets.
Most Popular Super Bowl Prop Bets
Learn which are the most popular Super Bowl prop bets: from who wins the MVP (and their position) to 1st touchdown scored by a player.
