The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon game.
|51.09%||31||Opp. Rush %||40.79%||12|
|48.91%||2||Opp. Pass %||59.21%||21|
- The Falcons are 6-2 against the spread as an underdog and 0-2 against the spread as a favorite this season.
- The Bears lead the NFL with seven offensive plays of 50 or more yards.
- Chicago has scored on 22-of-42 (52.4%) of their drives over the past four weeks (second in the NFL) after scoring on 20-of-62 (32.3%) possessions Weeks 1-6 (21st).
- Opponents have scored on 48.8% (21-of-43) of their drives against Atlanta over the past four weeks, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears have allowed a touchdown on 34.0% of opponent drives on the road this season, 31st in the league.
- 60.7% (17-of-28) of the touchdowns allowed by the Bears have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 61.2% of the Chicago yardage has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 50.6% of the Atlanta yardage has come via rushing, third in the league.
- Marcus Mariota (2.0 yards over) and Justin Fields (0.1) are two of just six quarterbacks to have an average depth of target beyond the first down marker on all throws this season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Justin Fields (TRUST): Fields continued to be on an absolute #Konami tear. Fields not only notched his sixth straight top-12 scoring week, but he posted his fourth straight top-five scoring week and second week in a row pacing all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring.
It is hard to believe that this is where we are with Fields and the Chicago offense after the start of this season, but they have tapped into maxing out the best of his rushing ability while using that to set up shot plays in the passing game. Fields has an absurd 76.7 rushing points for fantasy over the past four weeks.
After 20 designed rushing attempts Weeks 1-6, Fields has 35 designed runs over the past four games for 270 yards and three touchdowns to go along with 15 scrambles for 197 yards and a pair of scores.
To go along with his legs, Fields also has multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past three games, which has really elevated his ceiling. Fields is averaging 12.5 passing points per game over his past six games with at least 9.2 passing points in each of those games. Pairing that with a player that has at least 47 rushing yards in eight straight games and we are cooking with gas for fantasy points.
Fields gets another tasty matchup here as Atlanta is 31st in pressure rate (22.8%), 31st in completion rate (68.6%), 27th in yards allowed per attempt (7.7 Y/A), and 28th in passing points allowed per game (16.4) to boost his passing floor.
Marcus Mariota (TRUST): Mariota has just one QB1 scoring week over his past four games and is increasing his odds of working his way toward opening the door for Desmond Ridder getting on the field.
Mariota has averaged 5.6 and 6.2 yards per pass attempt the past two weeks. He is 31st in EPA per dropback in those weeks while he is dead last in expected completion rate (59.2%) over that span.
While there is certainly some risk to backing Mariota here, this Chicago defense has been just as bad as their offense has been good over this recent run. The Bears have allowed 8.9 Y/A over the past four weeks while Mariota also comes with his own rushing ability. He is averaging 5.3 rushing points per game. Atlanta has one of the highest team totals this week at home, spots we objectively look to target.
On a week with Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Tom Brady, and Trevor Lawrence on bye, Mariota is a solid streaming option for those teams in 1QB leagues and one of the better 2QB options in Week 11.
David Montgomery (TRUST): Over the past four games, Montgomery has had 53 touches to 46 touches for Khalil Herbert. With Herbert now on injured reserve, Montgomery is set up to be at worst a volume based RB2 that can moonlight as an RB1 with efficiency spikes. Especially with how the Bears have been scoring points of late.
Montgomery needs the extra work because he sits 42nd in success rate (33.9%), 31st in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (8.7%), and 44th in rate of carries to result in a first down or touchdown (19.1%) out of 50 backs this season with 50 or more rushing attempts.
Atlanta is allowing 15.4 rushing points per game to opposing backfields, 26th in the league.
Falcons RBs: This backfield is even a bit muddier. Last Thursday Tyler Allgeier led the Atlanta backfield with 30 snaps (47.6%) and 11 touches even though he totaled just three yards on those opportunities.
Cordarrelle Patterson logged 24 snaps and just six touches. This after he had just 14 touches the week prior, despite his success in the box score reaching the end zone. Patterson could have been limited on a short week, but the Falcons have found success using Allgeier as well as Caleb Huntley (who had five touches for 32 yards Thursday) in the middle of the season.
We also saw Avery Williams register four touches for 25 yards last week.
Patterson is still the back that is the most enticing option here as he leads all backs in success rate per rush (55.3%) with a first down or touchdown on 30.3% of his carries (second among backs). Patterson still just needs a larger body of work to be handled as more than an upside RB2 in a positive matchup.
The good news is that Atlanta should find success here as a home favorite to set up opportunity. The Bears have allowed 18.1 rushing points per game to backfields (28th). Chicago has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs, tied for the second-most in the NFL.
Darnell Mooney: Mooney has gained some viability for fantasy with this offensive surge by the Bears, but he still is a matchup-based WR3/FLEX here. Catching all four of his targets for 57 yards this past week, Mooney has been a WR4 or better in five of his past seven games but has been a WR2 or better in just two of those weeks. The Bears are throwing more, but Mooney still has topped 70 yards just once on the season while catching just one touchdown pass.
The Falcons could be getting A.J. Terrell back here this week, but overall, this has been a matchup to target. The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season (44.1 points per game) and 1.90 points per target (28th) to the position. Even if Terrell should return, the impact on Mooney would be marginal as he is playing 50% of his snaps in the slot where Atlanta is allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing wideouts (23rd).
Drake London: London made his first trip into the end zone last week since Week 3, but it was still more of the same from what we have seen from his output as he caught 5-of-6 targets for 38 yards to go with that score.
London has not had more than 40 yards in a game over his past seven games played. He has had more than seven targets come his way just once so far this year. This is what is keeping London as a matchup-based FLEX.
The peripheral metrics still remain positive here if we can draw team passing volume. London has a 27.7% team target share (10th among wideouts) and has been targeted on 26.1% of his routes (11th).
The Bears are allowing 14.6 points per game (19th) to opposing WR1 targets and 9.3 yards per target (27th) to opposing boundary wide receivers, where London plays 88% of his snaps.
Chase Claypool: We did not see Claypool get any extension in playing time last week. In fact, he played fewer snaps last week (19) than he did in Week 9 (26) when he first joined the team. Claypool ran just seven pass routes and was targeted twice, catching one pass for eight yards.
You can talk yourself into the matchup being a carrot here, but Claypool is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play and still may not have a strong line based on opportunity even if he finds the end zone.
Kyle Pitts: We have evolved from “will the Falcons target Kyle Pitts?” to “can the Falcons complete targets to Kyle Pitts?” which is a small step in the right direction.
Pitts had another eight targets come his way, giving him 24 targets over the past three weeks. Sadly, he was able to pull in just two of those looks for 28 yards.
Pitts now has been held below 30 yards receiving in 7-of-9 games this season.
He had another 126 air yards Thursday night after 202 air yards in Week 9, despite totaling just 55 actual receiving yards. Just 50.9% of Pitts’s targets have been deemed catchable this season, the lowest rate among all tight ends with 25 or more targets this season. The next closest tight end has a 61.9% catchable target rate.
We know where we are with Pitts as an all-or-nothing TE play at this stage. The target volume and upside are stronger than nearly all of his peers, but the floor is among the lowest in the league. The most appealing part of this from a matchup stance is that the Bears are allowing a 5.8% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends (20th).
Cole Kmet: Now that he has finally cracked the scoring drought, Kmet cannot stop reaching the end zone. With another two scored last weekend, Kmet now has five touchdowns over the past three weeks. He has six (5-41-2) and seven targets (4-74-2) the past two weeks to go along with those scores.
Kmet has run into a string of great matchups and it doesn’t stop here. Atlanta is allowing 5.9 catches per game to opposing tight ends (30th) although they have allowed just one touchdown to the position.
Kmet did get banged up to close last week’s game as he knocked knees with a Detroit defender. Keep tabs on things this week to ensure that he is good to go. If so, Kmet is firmly in play as a matchup-based TE1 while this offense is running hot.
Bears vs Falcons Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Falcons will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: