The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon game.
|44.04%||20||Opp. Rush %||39.26%||4|
|55.96%||13||Opp. Pass %||60.74%||29|
- Denver games are 104.5 points below the game total this season, the lowest in the league.
- The Broncos are the only remaining team in the league without a run of 20 or more yards on the season.
- The Broncos have scored a touchdown on 3-of-51 (5.9%) possessions at home this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 30.0% of their drives against the Raiders, the second-highest rate in the league.
- The Broncos are allowing a league-low 25.4 yards per drive defensively.
- The Raiders are allowing 36.6 yards per possession, 30th in the league.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 6-of-21 red zone possessions (28.6%) against Denver, the lowest in the league.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 21-of-29 red zone possessions (72.4%) against Las Vegas, the highest rate in the league.
Russell Wilson: Wilson continued to struggle coming out of the bye, closing last week as the QB22 (14.2 points). Wilson matched a season-high with 42 pass attempts against the pass funnel Titans, but only completed 50% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
Wilson was working without Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, but he managed just one touchdown pass. Nine games in and Wilson has thrown more than one touchdown pass in one game and has just one QB1 scoring week.
Things get mildly interesting because that one game did come against the Raiders, when Wilson was the QB3 (27.5 points). The Raiders have been a target for us all season long. They have allowed either 17.0 fantasy points or a QB1 scoring week in every single game this season. Matt Ryan came off the bench last week to post a QB4 scoring week (22.7 points).
The Raiders are 27th in pressure rate (27.4%), dead last in sacks (10), and 31st in passing points allowed per game (17.5).
All of that lines up to give Wilson a chance as a streamer, but the status of his surrounding offense is a major obstacle to overcome. Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are both out. Those wideouts combined for a 5-108-1 line when these teams played earlier in the season when Wilson himself had 237 yards passing.
The offensive line is a major question right now. Denver has already lost left tackle Garrett Bolles earlier this season, but they lost right tackle Billy Turner this past week while starting center Graham Glasow left the game. Turner was already placed on injured reserve. Lloyd Cushenberry is also out for this game.
With all of the missing parts, it makes it harder to trust a player that has struggled so heavily to this point of the season. Despite the matchup here, I would rather stream Marcus Mariota or Daniel Jones if either is available. Wilson is best as a DFS dart and matchup-based QB2.
Derek Carr: Carr turned in a respectable 17.9 points (QB14) this past week, throwing a pair of touchdowns and 248 yards against the Colts. Carr did not log a QB1 scoring week for the third time in his past four games played, but he has been in the front half of weekly scoring in 6-of-9 weeks this season.
One of those low weeks was back in Week 4 when these teams played in Vegas. Carr was the QB24 in scoring that week (11.5 points), passing for just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 188 yards. It was one of two games this season in which Carr did not throw a touchdown pass.
Denver has been the toughest fantasy defense to target for fantasy points. They are allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 1.9% touchdown rate. As a byproduct, they are allowing just 9.2 passing points per game. That is going to keep Carr as a QB2 play this week.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs ground out just 3.7 yards per carry against a good Colts run defense but was able to stack enough volume to break through for fantasy. Jacobs rushed 21 times for 78 yards but found the end zone for the seventh time on the ground while tacking on six catches for 28 yards.
Jacobs handled another 81.8% of the backfield touches, giving him an 83.3% rate, the highest in the league.
Jacobs lit up the Broncos in the first matchup between these teams, rushing a season-high 28 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching 5-of-6 targets for 31 yards.
That was as a home favorite and here is a road underdog, but Jacobs’s heavy workload makes him a weekly RB1. Denver showed up last week in limiting Derrick Henry to 53 yards on 19 carries, but even with that factored in, the Broncos are allowing 4.77 YPC to backs (26th).
Denver RBs: Coming out of the bye, Melvin Gordon led this backfield with 43 snaps (53.8%), followed by Latavius Murray (25) and Chase Edmonds (15).
Despite the edge in snaps, Gordon had just 11 touches, but he did produce 70 yards on those limited opportunities. Murray led the backfield with 12 touches but managed just 47 yards. Edmonds had just three touches for nine yards.
That is right on par for where we are with this backfield. Gordon is floor based FLEX option. Murray is a touchdown-or-bust FLEX. Edmonds is not much of a factor unless he fully takes over passing work.
The Raiders are plenty beatable by backs if the Denver offensive line can hold up here. Las Vegas is allowing 149.1 total yards per game to backs (27th). They are the only defense allowing over 13.0 rushing and receiving points per game to backs.
Davante Adams: With all of the injuries to this pass catching group for the Raiders, Adams has taken completely over as a one-man receiving corps. After seeing 17 targets in Week 9 (10-146-2), Adams received another 14 targets (9-126-1) this past week. Outside of playing with the flu in Week 8, Adams has now seen 34.6%, 47.2%, and 36.8% of the targets over his past three games surrounding that flu game.
Adams has been a top-15 scorer in five of his past six games. On the season he is second in the league in target share (31.8%), sixth in share of team air yards (40.6%), and fourth in target rate per route (29.8%).
Denver is the league’s best team against opposing WR1 targets, allowing 9.0 points per game to those targets. But one of those players was already Adams, who caught 9-of-13 targets for 101 yards when these teams played in Week 4.
Even if we do not get a ceiling performance here based on the matchup, Adams is getting too many targets to turn away from him as anything other than a WR1 option.
Courtland Sutton: Sutton had a 28.2% target share on Sunday with all of the injuries to the Denver wideouts. It was Sutton’s highest target share in a game since Week 5. He saw 11 targets come his way, although he was able to reel in just six of them for 66 yards.
Sutton now has failed to register a WR2 or better scoring week in each of his past five games and has been a WR3 or lower in 6-of-9 games now on the season.
In the three games that Jerry Jeudy played fewer than 50% of the snaps this season, Sutton has seen 39.2%, 31.3%, and 28.2% of the team targets. With Jeudy out for Sunday, Sutton is a fringe WR1 on a bye-heavy week based on those target opportunities.
Sutton caught 5-of-7 targets for 52 yards and his lone touchdown on the season when these teams played in Week 4.
The Raiders have been solid on the outside. They are allowing 7.9 yards per target (ninth) to opposing boundary wide receivers and just a 1.1% touchdown rate (fourth) to perimeter wide receivers, where Sutton plays 86% of his snaps.
Mack Hollins: Hollins caught 2-of-6 targets for 18 yards last week after the Raiders placed Hunter Renfrow on injured reserve. Hollins ran a route for 100% of the team dropbacks, but that is nothing new for him.
Any time Hollins has had a useful game for fantasy, it has correlated with Davante Adams struggling, which isn’t often. Hollins has been a WR3 or better three times this season. Two of those came in weeks in which he scored his only two touchdowns of the year. The other was the Adams flu game.
Considering the matchup itself, Hollins is a WR4/FLEX for deeper leagues. He caught 3-of-5 targets for 33 yards when these teams played in Week 4.
Denver WRs: Both Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are out this week.
With those two wideouts out last week, Kendall Hinton ran a route on 95.9% of the dropbacks (4-62-0) while Jalen Virgil ran 17 routes (1-66-1), and Tyrie Cleveland 16 routes (no catches on three targets).
Hinton played 56% of his snaps in the slot, which is the area where you want to target the Raiders if possible. Las Vegas is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers (18.7) while allowing 10.5 yards per target (29th) and a league-high 10.3% touchdown rate out of the slot this season.
Circle back if either Jeudy or Hamler play this week, but Hinton would be a one-week flyer as a WR4/FLEX swing if both are out again this week.
Greg Dulcich: Dulcich was a fantasy disappointment last week, catching 1-of-4 targets for 11 yards in a game in which Denver was missing so many pass catchers.
Despite the low output, the usage for Dulcich was still strong. He ran a route on 40-of-49 dropbacks and played a season-high 89% of the snaps.
We can chalk up last week as a letdown and still keep Dulcich in play as a backend TE1 option after he posted three straight TE1 weeks prior.
The Raiders have allowed a 9.5% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, 30th in the league.
Foster Moreau: Moreau only caught 3-of-4 targets for 43 yards Sunday, but he secured his first touchdown of the season. At a depleted tight end position, any trip to the end zone can put you in play as a TE1.
Moreau has 44 yards or fewer in every game this season with one game catching more than three passes, but he is at least a warm body out there if just taking a shot on a tight end you know will be on the field. Moreau has run a route on 112-of-121 dropbacks over the past three games.
Denver is allowing 6.6 yards per target (11th) and a 4.3% touchdown rate (14th) to opposing tight ends.
Raiders vs Broncos Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Broncos will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: