The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.
|45.88%||26||Opp. Rush %||34.58%||2|
|54.12%||7||Opp. Pass %||65.42%||31|
- The Ravens are the last remaining team in the league to not run a play on offense trailing by double digits.
- After 10 completions of 20 or more yards over the opening three weeks of the season, the Ravens have eight completions of 20 or more yards since, tied for the fewest in the league.
- The Ravens have allowed a touchdown on 7-of-49 (14.3%) of opponent drives in the first half, second in the league.
- The Panthers have scored a touchdown on 4-of-54 (7.4%) first half drives, 31st in the league.
- 9.5% of the Carolina offensive plays have been run inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
- 18.5% of the offensive plays run against Baltimore have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- The Ravens are averaging 1.2 more yards per rushing play than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson is coming out of the bye as the QB5 in points per game (21.8) but has not finished higher than QB9 in a week since Week 3. Prior to the bye, Jackson threw for just 6.0 yards per pass attempt and 133 yards. Over the past six games, Jackson is averaging 169.8 passing yards per game and 6.0 Y/A. He has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in all but one of those games while completing fewer than 60% of his passes in four of those games.
Jackson’s weaponry in terms of pass catchers is rough on paper, even if we get a healthy Mark Andrews out of the bye.
The silver lining here is that Jackson is averaging 70.6 rushing yards per game. His 7.4 yards per rush would be a career-high if things can hold. He only has two rushing touchdowns so far as well, something that can spike given his output so far. Jackson is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards (464 yards).
We also are getting Jackson as a large home favorite, attached to one of the highest team totals of the week. Paired with the depleted landscape at the position, Jackson still resides as a QB1 for fantasy purposes.
Carolina has allowed 17 or more fantasy points to each of the past three starting quarterbacks they have faced. They have allowed 43 rushing yards to Marcus Mariota in each of the two matchups they had with Atlanta.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield will start his first game since Week 5 with P.J. Walker dealing with an ankle injury.
Mayfield is 39th in the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.15). His 56.6% completion rate is dead last among all passers with 100 or more pass attempts this season.
Baltimore has also been hot defensively. They have allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt over their past six games while allowing one or fewer touchdown passes in seven of their nine games this season.
There is no reason to get cute here with Mayfield as more than desperation play on needy 2QB teams.
Ravens RBs: Baltimore could get Gus Edwards back this week after missing Week 9 with a hamstring injury and getting an extra week off with the bye last week. Keep tabs on Edwards returning but coming off another injury paired with his ACL injury, we should not anticipate a full workload if he does suit up. Prior to injury in Week 9, Edwards accounted for 42.3% of the backfield touches after 45.7% in Week 8. Even in a high-end outcome, Edwards should be at 50% of the touches or fewer. Pairing that with his limited receiving output, Edwards will be a touchdown-dependent FLEX play if active.
If Edwards is not active this week. Kenyan Drake is a solid RB2 option.
Drake has already been a top-15 scorer in three of his past four games, but all three of those performances came attached to either J.K. Dobbins or Edwards missing time in-game or being inactive outright.
Justice Hill will surely be peppered in, but he has had more than six touches just once this season.
As a whole, this backfield should be busy Sunday. Baltimore is a hefty favorite at home going against a Carolina defense that is allowing 155.5 rushing yards per game on the road (25th). The Panthers are allowing 16.7 rushing points per game to backfields altogether, 27th in the league.
D’Onta Foreman: Putting up 130 yards and a score on 31 touches last Thursday, Foreman has now cleared 100 yards in three of the four games since the trade of Christian McCaffrey.
Even with Chuba Hubbard returning to action last week, Foreman handled 73.8% of the backfield touches.
The only shade here is that all three of Foreman’s good performances came in game scripts in which Carolina was ahead and competitive. He has next to no passing role (four receptions the past four weeks), so Foreman needs the Panthers to play in front to create opportunities. When the Panthers were flooded two weeks in Cincinnati, Foreman had just nine touches for 21 yards. We have a similar setup here with the Panthers as huge road underdogs.
Baltimore is allowing 76.0 yards per game on the ground to running backs (fourth) and they face just 17.6 carries per game (second fewest) since they have played in front so often this season.
I am proceeding with caution on Foreman as a volatile RB2 this weekend. If Gus Edwards does not return, I outright would prefer Kenyan Drake here heads up.
D.J. Moore: After a small glimpse of promise Week 7 (7-69-1) and Week 8 (6-152-1), Moore has reverted back to the fantasy option we have seen for the majority of the 2022 campaign the past two weeks. Moore had games of 2-24-0 (six targets) and 4-29-0 (six targets). Through 10 games, Moore has been a WR2 or better twice and a WR3 or better in another two games. That leaves him as a boom-or-bust WR3.
We also have the return of Mayfield. Mayfield and Moore have connected on 19-of-41 targets (46.3%) so far this season.
The best thing going here is that we know that we can throw targets at the wall. Moore has received at least 20% of the team targets in every game this season.
Terrace Marshall: After back-to-back weeks as a top-30 scorer, Marshall only managed to grab 1-of-2 targets for 43 yards last Thursday. We cannot even get consistency out of a talent like D.J. Moore in this passing game, so there is inherently going to be volatility here chasing Marshall as a FLEX option.
If you are chasing here, take solace in knowing Marshall will be out there as much as possible. Since the trade of Robby Anderson, Marshall has run a pass route on 108 of 113 team dropbacks.
Ravens WRs: Through 10 weeks, Baltimore wideouts collectively rank 31st in receptions (66) and 31st in receiving yardage (845 yards).
With Rashod Bateman out in Week 9, this group combined to catch 5-of-9 targets for 55 yards. No wide receiver on the team was in route for more than 80% of the dropbacks, as all of Devin Duvernay (80%), Demarcus Robinson (68.0%), James Proche (32.0%), and DeSean Jackson (20.0%) rotated into action.
Duvernay and Robinson remain the leaders if throwing something at the wall on thin rosters. Duvernay has five weeks as a WR4 or better this season while Robinson has one.
Mark Andrews: We will come into this week expecting Andrews to return out of the bye. After missing Week 9 with knee and shoulder issues paired with leaving early in Week 8 and failing to catch a pass in Week 7, Andrews has been a fantasy void since Week 6.
Despite the tough turn of events for gamers, if Andrews is back and healthy, he immediately moves back into the front-end tier of TE1 options.
Andrews still leads all tight ends in team target share (26.2%) even with all of his missed time. His 28.6% target per route rate is tops at the position.
Carolina has also been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing a 70.5% catch rate (22nd), 7.4 yards per target (18th), and a 4.9% touchdown rate (17th) to the position.
In a very thin week with byes and injuries all over the position, you could cast a deep line on Isaiah Likely having a role in the offense still coming out of the bye, even with Andrews returning. Likely has only run 92 routes this season with Andrews on the field, but he has been targeted on 20.7% of those routes.
Tommy Tremble: After running a route on 70.8% of the dropbacks in Week 7, Tremble has route participation rates of 55.3%, 56.3%, and 42.1% since. He does have a touchdown in two of his past games, but even as a touchdown or bust play, Tremble is a thin option.
Ravens vs Panthers Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Ravens will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: