The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Thursday Night Football game.
|32.99%||1||Opp. Rush %||49.41%||30|
|67.01%||32||Opp. Pass %||50.59%||3|
- The Packers have scored on 37.5% of their drives at home (19th) as opposed to 19.6% on the road (32nd).
- The Titans are averaging a league-low 24.2 yards per drive.
- The Titans have punted on 50.5% of their possessions, 31st in the league.
- The Titans have scored a touchdown on 14-of-48 (29.2%) first half drives, seventh in the league.
- Tennessee has scored a touchdown on 4-of-52 (7.7%) drives in the second half this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Titans are the only team in the league that has yet to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter this season.
- 80.9% (17-of-21) of the touchdowns scored by the Packers have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 88.9% (16-of-18) of the touchdowns allowed by Tennessee have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers attempted just 20 passes on Sunday, his fewest in a full game over his tenure as a starting quarterback.
Despite the restricted workload, Rodgers turned in his best game of the season, closing as the QB9 (19.4 points). Rodgers completed 70% of his passes (his third-best rate in a game) while he threw for a season-high three touchdown passes and 11.2 yards per pass attempt against a strong Dallas defense to date. Rodgers had an average depth of target of 11.3 yards downfield (also a season-high), which was second in the league in Week 10.
Rodgers bricking a matchup indoors against the Lions the week prior and then dialing up his most efficient game of the season immediately afterward against Dallas was a twist for those who streamed him last week.
Rodgers will look to build on that performance against the pass-funnel Titans. Tennessee faces the most pass attempts per game (40.6). A lot of that volume stems from how good they have been defending the run. Another is part game script as Tennessee has led for 52.9% of their snaps (third in the league). The last part is that their defense has played a lot better in recent weeks to make teams attempt more passes.
The Titans have allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt over their past four games after allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt prior. That includes allowing a season-low 6.6 yards per attempt to Patrick Mahomes. I would wager against Rodgers getting to the 68 pass attempts that Mahomes reached in that one, but there should be plenty of volume here for Rodgers to be a higher-end QB2 with added upside should he roll over his Week 10 efficiency.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill returned last week after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury. The Titans failed to put any consistency together on offense against a stingy Denver defense, but Tannehill managed to hit some big plays and was able to have his highest-scoring game of the season (19.4 points). Tannehill completed a season-low 52.8% of his passes but threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns, tacking on 12 rushing yards.
He gets a better matchup this week, but the Packers have still been a defense that has limited opposing passing production. Green Bay is allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt (ninth) and 10.5 yards per completion (13th), but they have allowed a 4.6% touchdown rate (24th) to offer a scoring efficiency outlet for those pushing Tannehill into 2QB lineups.
Derrick Henry: After six straight games posting over 100 total yards, Henry was finally slowed down last week. Denver limited Henry to 67 total yards on 21 touches. It was the first time Henry scored single-digit fantasy points in a game since Week 2.
Henry will look to get back on track Thursday night against a Green Bay defense that is 28th in the NFL in yards allowed prior to contact to running backs (1.77) and 25th in yards allowed after contact (3.29) to backs. The Packers are 24th in success rate against running back carries (57.2%) and are allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game to backs (30th).
Those are tough numbers to bring to the table against an RB1 like Henry. The only thing in favor here is potential game script as Henry is attached to a road dog. The Titans also have one of the lowest implied team totals of the week. That said, we know the Titans will run the ball as much as they can. Tennessee is second in the NFL in first down rushing rate (68.8%) and Henry leads the NFL with 130 first down carries. The Packers are allowing 4.91 YPC to backs on first down carries (23rd).
Aaron Jones: Jones was back on the right side of efficiency this past week, turning a season-high 24 rushes into 138 yards (5.8 YPC) with his second rushing touchdown on the season. He added two receptions for 18 yards.
Over the past five weeks, Jones has rushed for fewer than 30 yards three times surrounding spike weeks with 143 and 138 yards on the ground.
Regardless of efficiency, the Packers have more or less swerved into Jones being the lead back. He handled 66.7% of the backfield touches this past weekend and has out-touched A.J. Dillon 67-to-28 over their past three full games played together.
Jones will need to run on the right side of the efficiency spectrum here as the Titans have been solid on the ground. Not only do they face the fewest rushing attempts per game from backs (17.1), but they are third in success rate on running back carries (68.8%) while allowing 3.89 YPC to backs (fifth). Just 27.5% of the carries against Tennessee have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Jones has enough talent to be efficient against anyone if he can keep getting the work he has been getting over the past month. That keeps him on the board as a boom-or-bust RB2. Jones also has an added out as a pass catcher. The Titans are allowing 13.5 receiving points per game to opposing backs, 31st in the league.
A.J. Dillon: Dillon has rushed for over 5.0 yards per carry in two of his past three games, but he has been relegated as an ancillary attachment in this backfield over having a 50/50 role. Dillon is averaging just 10.2 touches per game over his past six games with a game-high of 14 over the span. With just seven catches over that span and failing to reach the end zone in a game since Week 1, Dillon has been an RB2 or better in just one of his past eight games since the season opener. He is a touchdown-dependent FLEX against one of the better run defenses in the league.
Allen Lazard: Lazard was bottled up by a Dallas defense that has limited opposing WR1 targets this season, catching 3-of-4 targets for 45 yards. That opened the door for Christian Watson’s breakout party.
The Titans are a mix-and-match defense that opens the door for spike plays and lots of wide receiver volume. They play man coverage on 25.9% of pass plays, right in the middle of the league (16th). Lazard has some of the staunchest splits based on coverage. He has been targeted on 27.2% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to 15.1% of his routes against zone.
The Titans face 21.2 targets per game to opposing wideouts (sixth most) based on their splits this season. Not only do they face a lot of targets, but they also are allowing 8.9 yards per target (27th) and a 5.8% touchdown rate (27th) to the position to allow a runway for Lazard to be a matchup-based option on the WR2/WR3 line.
Christian Watson: Watson was the breakout performer of Week 10, catching 4-of-8 targets for 107 yards and three touchdowns. He entered the week with 10 catches for 88 yards, in and out of the lineup due to injuries and failure to cash in early-season opportunities.
With Romeo Doubs sidelined, Watson ran a pass route on 21-of-23 team dropbacks.
While the season to date has been uneven for Watson, let’s not forget the big picture here. It is not uncommon for rookies to play their best to close the season. That is something we have seen multiple times in recent years. Watson also was a second-round draft pick this team traded up for. He is an athletic beast that tested out in the 94th percentile in terms of physical score in my prospect model at 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds.
Did we likely just see the best fantasy game Watson will have in 2022? I’d bet on it. Does that mean that Watson cannot make a fantasy impact to close the year? Of course not. With Doubs still out and playing against a pass funnel defense, Watson will have another shot to make plays.
Tennessee has allowed a league-high 18 receptions to wideouts on throws 20 or more yards downfield with five touchdowns on those receptions (31st). Watson has the opportunity to roll over his Week 10 as a boom-or-bust WR3 play.
Robert Woods: Catching 2-of-10 targets for 10 yards Sunday, Woods now has 39 yards receiving in all but one game this season. He also has just one touchdown. If looking for a sliver of hope here as a single-game DFS play, Woods still is the most frequent target in this passing game with a 21.4% team target share.
Treylon Burks: Burks was able to get back on the field last week for the first time since Week 4 after recovering from a toe injury. Burks ran a route on 76.3% of the team dropbacks, catching 3-of-6 targets for 24 yards. Burks has yet to have a game this season with double-digit fantasy points, so we are still looking for his rookie season spike week.
He is still more of a bench stash and single-game DFS dart, but the Packers can offer some efficiency in hopes we find it here. Green Bay is middle of the pack in allowing 8.0 yards per target (17th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (21st) to opposing wide receivers.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Westbrook-Ikhine was the top performer in the Titans’ passing game last week. He caught his first two touchdowns of the season, the first on a beautiful toe-tapping score from nine yards out and then had a 63-yard catch and run on a flea flicker in which two Denver defenders ran into each other.
Westbrook-Ikhine is a thin play even for showdown DFS, but he is running a route on 75% of the dropbacks while carrying an average depth of target of 15.8 air yards.
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan caught his lone target Sunday for eight yards. He has just one game this season topping 37 yards with just one touchdown on the year. If chasing Tonyan as more than a touchdown or bust TE2, the Titans have allowed just a 2.8% touchdown rate (ninth) to opposing tight ends.
Titans TEs: This still remains a three-player split that is only for those making a single-game DFS punt. This past week, Austin Hooper led the way with 38 snaps and received a season-high seven targets (5-41-0). It was Hooper’s first game with more than three receptions while we are still chasing his first touchdown. If chasing volume here, Hooper is your best bet.
Geoff Swaim played 33 snaps, but just six of them were pass routes.
Chigoziem Okonkwo ran nine pass routes, but he did have a 41-yard reception, his second game in a row with a catch of 40 or more yards.
The Packers have not been challenged by a tough slate of tight ends. They are allowing 5.5 yards per target (fourth) to tight ends but are allowing an 8.2% touchdown rate (28th) to the position.
Packers vs Titans Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Packers will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: