The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.
|45.47%||24||Opp. Rush %||39.43%||5|
|54.53%||9||Opp. Pass %||60.57%||28|
- Cleveland games are a league-high 7-1-1 towards the over this season.
- The Bills lead the NFL in yards per drive (40.6).
- The Browns are fifth in the league in yards per drive (36.4).
- The Bills have punted on a league-low 18.9% of their drives.
- Cleveland has punted on 28.0% of their drives, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- Opponents against Cleveland have punted on 29.3% of their drives, the second-lowest rate in the league outside of the Lions (25.8%).
- The Bills have turned the ball over on a league-high 18.9% of their possessions.
- 33.3% (8-of-24) of the Cleveland touchdowns have come via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
Josh Allen (TRUST): After looking questionable all week long due to a UCL injury, Allen not only started last week, but showed no ramifications of playing hurt. He threw the ball 43 times (for 330 yards) while rushing for 84 yards. Allen closed the week as the QB7 (19.6 points). He has now been a QB1 fantasy scorer in every game but one this season.
Allen did throw another two interceptions, his third game in a row with multiple turnovers and the fourth time this season he has thrown a pair of interceptions.
With this game moving indoors to Detroit, we don’t have any weather issues to concern ourselves with.
Cleveland has struggled to stop anything defensively, so they will want as much snow as possible. The Browns are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (25th), 11.9 yards per completion (27th), a 4.7% touchdown rate (26th), and 0.471 passing points per attempt (28th) to opposing quarterbacks.
Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has given us a few moments this season where he played lights out, but then has quickly taken an immediate step back. This past week was another one of those times as he threw for just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 212 yards Sunday against a struggling Miami defense. Brissett did tack on 40 rushing yards to help his cause, but he still has posted just two QB1 scoring weeks through nine games this season. He has now thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in every game but one.
Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback to finish higher than QB19 against the Bills this season, but they have allowed three different passers to score 15.0 or more points over their past four games. That floor-based QB2 area is where Brissett resides.
Nick Chubb: Chubb was scripted out of last week’s game as he managed just 14 touches, but he was able to salvage the week with a 33-yard touchdown run, his league-leading 11th touchdown of the season.
Chubb’s touchdown run came out of 11 personnel, which has been a major development we have highlighted in this space this season. Chubb already has 76 carries with three or more wide receivers on the field this year. That ranks seventh in the NFL and is more carries than he has had with three or more wideouts on the field in any season under Kevin Stefanski.
On those carries, Chubb leads the league with 537 yards while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Jacoby Brissett is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt with three or more wideouts on the field.
Buffalo has been blasted on the ground here of late. They have allowed 471 yards on the ground to backs over their past three games. They have a 54.7% success rate against running back rushes over that span (27th). They have allowed 32.0% of those carries to gain a first down or touchdown (31st) while allowing a league-high 5.5 yards per carry after contact.
As long as the Browns can stay on script here, Chubb is in line to stack efficient rushing opportunity as an RB1.
Devin Singletary: Singletary turned 14 touches into 47 yards Sunday, but he was able to find the end zone twice on the ground. Those were his first two rushing touchdowns on the year.
Singletary has shared touches here the past two weeks with 66.7% and 63.6% of the backfield touches. He has rushed for just 2.95 YPC the past two games but gets an amazing draw here if he can flirt with 15 touches.
Cleveland is allowing 5.23 YPC to backs (29th), ranking 30th in the league in success rate against running back runs (54.0%), and 31st in yards allowed before contact (2.10) on those carries. The Browns also are not only allowing efficient runs, but they have also allowed a league-high 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Singletary’s workload profile keeps him down the ladder at the position, but is a solid matchup-based RB2 option.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt’s struggles continued Sunday, tallying just seven touches for 19 yards. Hunt now has single-digit touches in three of his past four games and has been an RB2 or better in just two games this season.
Hunt is a touchdown-dependent FLEX who has more contingency value now than standalone value. He has had more than three receptions in just two games as he is pacing for career lows in catches per game (2.2) and efficiency on those opportunities with career lows in yards per catch (6.4) and yards per target (5.3).
Stefon Diggs: Just another trip to the bank for Diggs last week as he hauled in 12-of-16 targets for 128 yards. Diggs collected another 39.0% of the team targets, his fifth consecutive game receiving 30% of the team targets.
The Browns are zone-heavy and Cover-3 based defense. They play zone on 73.9% of passing plays (10th) while using Cover-3 on 38.6% of passing plays (sixth).
Diggs is averaging 3.06 yards per route run against zone coverage, second in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill. Against Cover-3, Diggs is averaging 3.30 yards per route run, which is fourth among all wideouts. Diggs sits at the front end of wide receiver plays, especially now that we are without Hill and Cooper Kupp this week.
A weird thing with the Browns is that they are giving up tons of splash plays but have been good versus opposing WR1 targets. They are third in the NFL in points per game allowed to WR1 (11.7) but are allowing 8.8 yards per target (26th) and 13.9 yards per catch (26th) to receivers. They have allowed touchdowns to both Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins in their past two games, but also just 44 and 49 yards to those players.
Amari Cooper: Road game Amari struck again last week as he caught all three of his targets for 32 yards. There is no real sense to the nature of Cooper’s home and away splits, but they are a weird thing that just exists over the course of his career. Even an objectively great matchup for him last weekend couldn’t help things out. Home and away splits are almost always noise, except for when they aren’t.
On the road this year, Cooper has caught 10-of-17 targets for 132 yards with no touchdowns as opposed to pulling in 32-of-52 targets for 453 yards and five touchdowns at home. Cooper has 34.2% of the team targets in home games as opposed to 13.8% on the road this season.
The Bills have been beaten up in the secondary all season long and it has impacted their output for fantasy. Buffalo has allowed a top-24 wideout in five straight games, with three WR1 scoring weeks over that span.
Cooper’s wonky road splits throw a wrench into things, but is he someone you are going to outright bench because of them? It would be easier if the weather does get nasty and could prevent the headache, but Cooper is a boom-or-bust WR2 on a clean slate.
Gabriel Davis: The Gabe Davis pendulum swung back into his favor last week. After six straight games with three or fewer receptions, Davis had a season-high six catches and nine targets, turning them into 93 yards and his fifth touchdown of the season.
Davis now has four weeks as the WR18 or better to go along with four weeks as the WR45 or lower.
You have to taste the bitter to get to the sweet with Davis as a boom-or-bust WR3 in lineups. Cleveland is allowing a 5.8% touchdown rate (28th) to opposing wideouts to provide a carrot for those chasing the sweet side.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: Catching 5-of-9 targets for 99 yards Sunday, Peoples-Jones has now been a WR3 or better in four straight games and a WR4 or better in six consecutive weeks.
He still does not have a touchdown on the season, but even without a score, Peoples-Jones has turned into a bankable WR3/FLEX play.
As you can probably guess, Peoples-Jones benefits from the home/road variance of Cooper. In road games, Peoples-Jones has a team-high 28.5% target share as opposed to a 13.2% target share at home.
There is a half-season sample here that suggests that Peoples-Jones is the outright better play here if you want to lean into those home and away splits.
Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie had four catches for 37 yards Sunday, giving him 37 yards or fewer in all but one game this season. McKenzie has had double-digit points just twice this season, with both games coming along with a trip to the end zone. He is a touchdown-dependent FLEX swing in deep leagues.
Dawson Knox: Knox matched season highs with six targets and four catches on Sunday while posting the most yards (57) he has all season.
Knox still only had 14.6% of the team targets (15th among tight ends in Week 10). He is only getting TE2 usage for fantasy, but with the state of the position and his attachment to Josh Allen, he can hang around as a fringe TE1 on a week-to-week basis.
Cleveland has been a tougher draw for tight ends, allowing a 56.0% catch rate (second) and a 2.0% touchdown rate (seventh) to the position.
David Njoku: Another week in which we are waiting to see if Njoku will return to the lineup. He hasn’t played since Week 7 due to an ankle injury but was averaging 75.8 yards per game (with 58 or more yards in every game) over his five games prior to getting hurt.
Njoku will walk right back into being a TE1 play when he is available by default of the position, but this has been a tough spot for opposing tight ends. Buffalo is one of two remaining teams that have not allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end while allowing 5.7 yards per target (sixth) to the position.
Bills vs Browns Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Bills will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: