Commanders vs Texans: Fantasy Deep Dive & Predictions, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Washington Commanders at Houston Texans Sunday afternoon game.

Washington	Rank	@	Houston	Rank
-3		Spread	3
21.75		Implied Total	18.75
19.1	24	Points/Gm	16.6	28
21.3	15	Points All./Gm	23	20
67.3	3	Plays/Gm	58.4	30
59.2	1	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.6	30
4.8	30	Off. Yards/Play	5.2	23
5.5	16	Def. Yards/Play	5.9	29
42.79%	14	Rush%	39.35%	21
57.21%	19	Pass%	60.65%	12
42.74%	19	Opp. Rush %	52.09%	32
57.26%	14	Opp. Pass %	47.91%	1

Houston has led for a league-low 11.4% of their offensive plays.
The Texans are averaging 80.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
46.1% of the yardage allowed by the Texans has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
Houston is allowing 12.2 yards per completed pass, 30th in the league.
Washington is allowing 12.1 yards per completed pass, 29th in the league.
Houston has a league-worst 52.1% success against running back carries.
Washington has a 68.5% success rate against running back carries, third best in the league.

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke: We will enter the week approaching things as if Heinicke will remain the starter with Carson Wentz eligible to come back from a stint on injured reserve.

Heinicke is the reason that Washington sought out getting Wentz this offseason, but with Heinicke under center, Washington is 3-1. That is the number that matters more than anything to the coaching staff. Washington has a touch more offensive success under Heinicke, averaging 1.89 points per drive (19th) the past four weeks compared to 1.35 points per drive (29th) prior.

The real story with Washington is that they have allowed 21 or fewer points in six straight games versus the offense carrying any real water, but we circle back here if Wentz comes back and reclaims the starting spot.

For fantasy, Heinicke has logged one QB1 scoring week over his four starts and is stuck as a 2QB option.

Houston is a weaker opponent overall than the Packers, Colts, Vikings, and Eagles, who Heinicke has faced so far. But Houston has been respectable defending the pass. They are ninth in pressure rate (34.6%), 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.391), with a 3.4% touchdown rate (ninth) allowed. They will give up some chunk gains, though, allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt (30th) and 12.2 yards per completion (30th).

Davis Mills: Mills was still confirmed to be the starter moving forward by Lovie Smith. There is really no reason to not let Mills run things out this season as well.

Mills has only finished in the top half of weekly scoring among quarterbacks once in his nine starts, which leaves him as a 2QB option. If looking for a silver lining here and hoping for counting stats for fantasy, Mills has thrown for 300 yards in two of his past four games and is coming off a season-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

Washington has played better defensively, but they have allowed six QB1 weeks and seven of the 10 quarterbacks they have faced have finished in the top half of weekly scoring.

Running Back

Dameon Pierce: Pierce turned in another solid outing last week in a trailing game script, producing 122 total yards on 19 touches. Pierce has now cleared 100 total yards in six of his past seven games while averaging 22.7 touches per game over that span. With 82.6% of the backfield touches Sunday, Pierce now has had at least 80% of the backfield touches in six of the past eight games.

Pierce has not rushed for a touchdown since Week 5 and has three or fewer catches in 7-of-9 games as his two minor thorns in preventing him from being a locked-in RB1 every week and more of a higher-end RB2.

Washington is also a tougher draw. The Commanders are allowing a first down or touchdown on just 16.0% of running back carries, which is second in the league. they are 11th in yards allowed per carry to backs (4.16 YPC) while allowing 10.7 rushing points per game to the position (fourth).

Washington RBs: Washington continued to run a near-even split between Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson.

Robinson played 43 snaps to Gibson’s 40, with Robinson having a season-high 26 rushing attempts. He only managed 3.3 YPC on those carries but was able to punch in his second rushing touchdown on the season.

Gibson had 17 touches for 58 yards and also cashed in a goal line carry for his first rushing touchdown since Week 3.

The backfield split in Washington has made both backs touchdown-dependent FLEX plays. Gibson has scored double-digit fantasy points in just one game without a touchdown while Robinson has been the RB64, RB29, RB64, and RB34 in his games without a score.

The good news here is that these backs are drawing a Houston run defense that we have targeted all season long. You can elevate both Gibson and Robinson as RB2/FLEX plays in this matchup.

Houston is allowing 5.45 YPC to backs (31st) paired with facing a league-high 28.7 rushing attempts per game from running backs. Add on that they have allowed a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to the position. Putting all of those things together, Houston is allowing 24.3 rushing points per game to backs, the most in the league.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin stayed hot on Monday night, catching 8-of-11 targets for 128 yards. In his four starts with Heinicke under center, McLaurin has closed as the WR11 (5-73-1), WR17 (6-113-0), WR26 (5-56-0), and WR10 (8-128-0).

Over that span, McLaurin has 31.9% of the Washington targets (fourth among wideouts), 55.8% of the air yards (first), and has been targeted on 27.1% of his routes (sixth). Prior to Heinicke starting, McLaurin had 16.4% of the team targets (45th), 27.4% of the air yards (31st), and was targeted on just 15.0% of his routes (68th).

McLaurin has worked his way into WR1 usage with fringe WR1 output with Heinicke. He can be handled as such this week on a week with so many quality fantasy wideouts on bye.

Houston only faces 14.9 targets per game to opposing wideouts because they are getting run on and trailing games so frequently, but they are allowing a league-high 9.7 yards per target and 15.1 yards per catch to wide receivers.

Nico Collins: Collins returned to the field last week and led the team with 10 targets, securing five of them for 49 yards and his first touchdown of the season.

In the six full games that Collins and Brandin Cooks have played together, Collins has 321 receiving yards compared to 272 for Cooks. Collins has more yards than Cooks in five of those games in a row despite out-targeting Cooks just once. For the season, Collins has now been targeted on 21.3% of his routes compared to a 23.3% rate for Cooks.

Collins has logged three straight top-40 scoring weeks and can be used as a WR3/FLEX option for those rosters hurting through the bye week. Collins plays 93% of his snaps out wide, where Washington is allowing 10.4 yards per target (30th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (30th).

Brandin Cooks: Working out his differences with the team for the short term, Cooks caught 4-of-7 targets for 37 yards Sunday against the Giants. He did have a tough touchdown grab come back off of the board due to a penalty, but at the end of the day, Cooks has his fourth consecutive game for fantasy as a WR4 or lower.

Cooks has now been a WR3 or better in 6-of-8 games this season, which forces us to handle him as a WR3/FLEX play at this point. He has more than four catches in just two games with one touchdown.

The matchup is more than playable though if you are still out here plugging in Cooks weekly or have to turn to him on a thin week. Cooks also plays 73% of his snaps outside to gain a piece of that matchup highlighted above with Collins.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has taken a hit with the quarterback change receiving exactly four targets in three straight games. Going back to Week 6, Samuel has three or fewer receptions in four of his past five games.

Samuel is only averaging 10.3 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target with a depth of target of 6.1 yards downfield, so he is contingent on collecting more targets than the average wide receiver.

Samuel does have 14 rushing attempts for 83 yards the past four weeks to offer an added lifeline, but he has been pushed to being a floor-based FLEX play with the most appeal coming in full-PPR formats.

Jahan Dotson: Dotson was able to get back on the field for the first time since Week 4 after dealing with hamstring issues. Dotson played 41% of the snaps, catching his lone target for 14 yards.

Dotson has not had more than four catches in any game played as a rookie, but he does have four touchdowns if you have to chase. He is still more of a bench stash. If he can get back up full speed and play the 90% of snaps he was to open the season he can get back to touchdown or bust FLEX status.

Tight End

Houston TEs: This remained a rough split as Jordan Akins (33 snaps), O.J. Howard (33 snaps), and Teagan Quitoriano (27 snaps) all got on the field Sunday. Akins caught three passes for 72 yards, anchored by a 46-yard catch and run, the longest catch he has had since 2019. Akins only had three targets in the game while Howard had just one. Quitoriano did log a target.

If you have to throw a dart here on anyone as a Hail Mary play, Washington is allowing just 6.4 yards per target to tight ends (ninth) and 3.9% touchdown rate (13th) to the position.

Logan Thomas: Thomas led the Washington tight ends with 61 snaps (73.5%), but the fantasy results were more of the same as he caught 2-of-4 for 14 yards. Thomas has 15 catches for 118 yards and one touchdown over his seven games played this season with one TE1 scoring week.

Houston is allowing 7.6 yards per target (21st) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (21st) to opposing tight ends if you have to cast a line on Thomas as a desperation play.