The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.
|40.44%||8||Opp. Rush %||47.02%||29|
|59.56%||25||Opp. Pass %||52.98%||4|
- Opponents have scored on 29.3% of their drives against the Eagles, the third lowest rate in the league.
- The Colts have scored on 28.9% of their drives, 28th in the league.
- The Eagles have scored on 41.1% of their drives, eighth in the league.
- The Colts have trailed for 89.8% of their second half snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- The Eagles have trailed for 28 snaps in the second half this season, all coming this past Monday night.
- The Eagles are third in the NFL in yards per passing play (7.3 yards).
- Philadelphia is first in the yards allowed per passing play (4.6 yards).
Jalen Hurts: Hurts turned in another front-end QB1 scoring week on Monday, closing as the QB5 (21.8 points). Hurts has now reached 20 or more fantasy points in all but two games this year as he has been a top-12 scorer in every game but one.
Hurts added his seventh rushing touchdown of the year on a quarterback sneak, but he once again did not run much, tacking on 28 yards on the ground. Over the past four weeks, Hurts has rushed 6.5 times for 22.0 yards per game after averaging 13.6 carries for 53.2 yards rushing per game over his opening five games of the season. We are still getting enough rushing paired with an improved passing floor but would like to see that early season rushing output come back around for ceiling purposes.
Still, Hurts is getting there weekly as a high-end QB1.
The Colts are 18th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.418) but are 13th in passing points allowed per game (12.7) since they have faced the fourth fewest pass attempts per game (30.3) due to consistently trailing in the second half of games this season. Prior to Monday night, the Eagles had consistently led after the break. The implied game script is in favor of that happening again here.
Matt Ryan: The Colts pulled a late-hour switcheroo going back to Ryan prior to kickoff Sunday. Ryan cashed in a good spot against the Raiders, finishing as the QB4 (22.7 points). His 7.9 yards per pass attempt were the second most he has had this season. Ryan even tacked on 9.8 rushing points, sneaking for a touchdown and then adding a career-long 39-yard scramble to his totals. Prior to that, Ryan had 11 rushing yards on the season.
Ryan is back in play in 2QB formats but be cautious on him running back his Week 10 output here. The Eagles are allowing 9.5 passing points per game, second in the league. All of the peripheral metrics are strong here for the Eagles, allowing a 58.1% completion rate (second), 5.5 yards per pass attempt (first), and a 3.1% touchdown rate (third).
Jonathan Taylor: Welcome back to the season, Mr. Jonathan Taylor. Taylor lived up to his preseason expectations as he finished as the highest-scoring fantasy back. He rushed 22 times for 147 yards while catching two passes for 16 yards. He had his first rushing touchdown since Week 1, which was also the first taste of Taylor showing the explosiveness we have been accustomed to for him. Taylor took a handoff 66 yards for his score, outrunning defenders like a year ago.
A few things lined up strong here. The first is Taylor’s health. He has dealt with an ankle injury for the middle of the season. Hopefully, that is all behind him as he was able to practice without limitations last week leading into the game. The Colts changing back to a competent quarterback and new head coach that inherently wants to run the football helps things out, and lastly, the state of the Indianapolis backfield.
With the trade of Nyheim Hines and an injury to Deon Jackson, Taylor played 94% of the snaps Sunday, second among all backs in Week 10. He only caught two passes Sunday but ran a route on a season-high 83.3% of the team dropbacks. We will see if that playing time can remain that lofty if and when Jackson comes back, but that is a rare opportunity for a workhorse back and can allow Taylor to finish the season strong.
We will still pump the brakes on Taylor being fully back as the premier fantasy back (especially as a huge underdog here with a subterranean team total) but he is back in play as an RB1 option with that type of work.
He also gets an Eagles defense we have consistently been banging as being a weaker run defense than pass defense if the Colts can hang around here and stay in script.
With Jordan Davis off of the field, the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in success rate on running back carries (53.0%), allowing 5.09 yards per carry (28th) and 1.60 yards before contact (26th) on those carries.
Miles Sanders: We have had Sanders pegged all season long as a touchdown-dependent RB2 fantasy play.
The consistent positive game script for the Eagles has elevated the role Sanders has in the offense, but because he does not catch passes (11 catches for 42 yards on the season), Sanders has to live on rushing efficiency alone to get there for fantasy. Sanders does not even have a catch since Week 6.
In the four games that Sanders has failed to reach the end zone, he has been the RB18, RB51, RB37, and RB40.
The implied games script is once again in favor of Sanders to improve on the 12 carries he had Monday night but counting on efficiency here is a bit tougher based on the matchup. The Colts are allowing 3.80 YPC to backs (fourth) while they are seventh in the rate of running back carries to gain a first down or touchdown (20.3%).
A.J. Brown: Brown has held a consistently high floor all season long, but that came crashing down Monday as he caught just 1-of-4 targets for seven yards. Brown was nicked up early in the game and had his ankle taped, but he was able to return.
Brown received a season-low 16.0% target share was targeted on 20% of his routes after carrying a 30.1% target share with a target on 26.2% of his routes entering last week. We will chalk up last week and press on with Brown as a WR1 option.
The Colts are not a matchup to run from as they are 20th in points per game allowed to opposing WR1 targets (14.8), but they are an extremely zone-based defense under Gus Bradley. Indianapolis plays zone 74.7% of the time (sixth-highest) while playing Cover 3 on 50.4% of snaps (second-highest).
Brown has been targeted on 20.7% of his routes versus zone as opposed to 34.9% versus man coverage. On 81 routes against Cover-3, Brown has been targeted on 17.3% of his routes for 0.91 yards per route run.
Michael Pittman: Even with Ryan returning to the field, Pittman remains a volume-based fantasy wideout. He secured 7-of-9 targets for 53 yards against the Raiders.
Pittman has been a magnet for targets. He has 26.3% of the team targets in his games played while seeing eight or more targets in 7-of-9 games. Pittman has five or more receptions in 7-of-9 games to go with the volume.
The things that have limited Pittman’s ceiling (he has just two weeks as a WR2 or better) is that he has not scored a touchdown since Week 1 and still carries a depth of target of just 6.5 yards downfield, which is 105th among all wide receivers.
That has kept Pittman as a floor-based WR3 with added appeal in PPR formats.
The Eagles are 21st in points allowed per game (14.9) to opposing WR1 targets to offer a pulse here in turning his target volume into production.
DeVonta Smith: Smith caught 6-of-8 targets for 39 yards and his third touchdown of the season on Monday night. He also was dinged for a fumble and lost 14 yards on the final play of the game in which they were trying to lateral the ball around. His 32.0% target share was his highest in a game since Week 5, providing some immediate course correction after receiving just two targets the week prior.
Despite the touchdown, Smith has been held below 45 yards receiving in four straight games and has cleared 45 yards just three times in a game this season. Grain of salt for him having 53 yards prior to that lateral play Monday, but those yardage limitations have kept him in WR3 territory for fantasy.
If looking for a potential spike week here, Smith’s smaller sample metrics could signal him collecting more targets this week. Smith leads the team with a 25.0% target share against zone coverage while that bumps up to a 26.3% target share against Cover-3 looks.
Tack on the loss of Dallas Goedert, Smith has added upside on the WR2/WR3 line.
Parris Campbell: The move to Ryan under center was huge for Campbell. In his past three games played with Ryan under center, Campbell now has had games of 7-57-1 (11 targets), 10-70-1 (12 targets), and 7-76-1 (nine targets), seeing 19.6%, 29.3%, and 33.3% of the team targets in those games. Those games sandwich two weeks of playing with Sam Ehlinger, in which Campbell received seven total targets.
Campbell is still averaging just 9.6 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target, so we are forced to lean on him sustaining a high number of targets to sustain viability for fantasy. We should have plenty of passing volume here if the game plays out as implied. The Eagles see 21.3 targets per game to opposing wideouts (fifth most). 45.2% of the receptions by wideouts against the Eagles have come from the slot, the fifth-highest rate.
Campbell is a floor-based WR3 in full-PPR formats and FLEX play in non-PPR formats.
Alec Pierce: Pierce was shut out on Sunday, failing to draw a target. He now has not registered a top-40 scoring week since Week 6 with three or fewer receptions in each of his past five games. The Eagles are not a team to target for downfield production from wideouts as opposing wideouts have reeled in 8-of-28 targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield against them this season. Pierce is only a forced play on the thinnest rosters in deep leagues.
Eagles TEs: With Dallas Goedert expected to miss time with a shoulder injury, the Eagles will turn to Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra to contribute.
Goedert was fourth among all tight ends in target share (20.9%), fifth in yards per route run (1.99), and first in yards after the catch (361). It will be tough for the Eagles to make up that kind of efficiency with the reserves here, but Goedert had six or fewer targets in all but two games, so there is not a lot of opportunity here for lesser talents to pick up, either.
We could see someone like Zach Pascal or Quez Watkins pick up more work than betting on Stoll for this week, but we will keep a close eye here since the tight end has been a part of the offense.
The Colts can be picked on for tight end production if you do take a swing on Stoll as a “what the hell?” dart. They are allowing a 76.2% catch rate (30th), 8.3 yards per target (26th), and a 7.9% touchdown rate (26th) to the position.
Kylen Granson: Granson caught four passes for 57 yards Sunday, but he is still only a TE2 play for deeper formats until he strings together some consistent usage. Granson still played fewer snaps than Mo Alie-Cox (30-to-40). Granson had 55 total yards over the four previous games and still does not have a touchdown.
The Eagles are allowing 5.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (fifth).
Eagles vs Colts Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Eagles will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: