The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New York Jets at New England Patriots Sunday afternoon game.
|NY Jets||Rank||@||New England||Rank|
|42.15%||18||Opp. Rush %||41.17%||15|
|57.85%||15||Opp. Pass %||58.83%||18|
- The Jets are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season, one of two teams (Chargers) to cover every road game this season.
- The Patriots lead the league in drives starting on the opponent’s side of the field (18).
- New England has scored a touchdown on 13.4% of the drives that begin on their side of the field, 29th in the league.
The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 15.5% (16-of-103) of opponent drives, second in the league.
- 27.1% of the passing plays run against the Jets have resulted in a first down or touchdown, third lowest rate in the league.
- 28.8% of the passing plays against New England have resulted in a first down or touchdown, sixth in the league.
- Zach Wilson is averaging 10.3 yards per pass attempt on first downs, the highest rate among all passers with 50-plus attempts.
- Just 33.5% of Wilson’s pass attempts have come on first down, which is 35th in the league.
- Wilson is averaging 5.6 Y/A on all other downs, ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky.
Zach Wilson: Wilson has not finished higher than QB19 in any of his past four starts. He sits 38th among all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.309). The Jets have not done him a lot of favors attempting to hide him to a degree, placing him in more obvious passing situations when the Jets do throw the football.
Facing the Patriots has also been a tough draw for Wilson early in his career. On 91 dropbacks against New England over the past two seasons, Wilson has completed 45-of-84 passes (53.6%) for 616 yards (7.3 Y/A) with two touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also has been sacked seven times.
The Patriots have pressured Wilson on 45.1% of those dropbacks. On those pressured dropbacks, Wilson is 10-of-34 passing with one touchdown and four interceptions.
Wilson is only an option for those forced to fill a hole in 2QB formats.
Mac Jones: As questionable as Wilson has been, Jones has actually been worse. He is averaging 0.283 passing points per attempt, which is ahead of only Kenny Pickett.
Jones is 40th in EPA per dropback (-0.16), ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky and P.J. Walker among passers with 100 or more dropbacks this season.
For fantasy, Jones has finished higher than QB22 just once in six starts, which includes a QB23 scoring week against the Jets in Week 8 (11.7 points).
The Jets are allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (third) while allowing more than one touchdown pass just once on the season.
Jones is also stuck as a 2QB option only in Week 11.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is coming out of the bye with four straight RB1 scoring weeks and seven straight games as an RB2 or better for fantasy.
Stevenson has had a favorable runout with injuries across the New England backfield, Damien Harris has played 40% of the snaps just once since Week 4. That said, even in the past two games that Harris was available in full, Steveson was RB22 and the RB10 in scoring those weeks. With Harris last available in full in Week 8, Stevenson handled 63.9% of the backfield touches. Even if Harris is back on the field, Stevenson should be the favorite here to continue to push for a 60/40 split.
That last game the pair shared was against the Jets where Stevenson turned 23 touches into 143 total yards.
Stevenson also has all of the passing work right now, which has been his lifeline for fantasy. He has rushed for 39, 71, and 60 yards in his past three games, but has secured 18 of 23 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown receiving.
The Jets are allowing 3.96 YPC to backs (sixth), but they are 19th in receiving points allowed per game (9.5) to backfields. If Harris is back fully healthy, Stevenson is still a fringe RB1 option in full-PPR formats and a front-end option should Harris not be ready to return.
Harris himself is only a touchdown-or-bust FLEX.
Jets RBs: Prior to the bye, we had seen more of a true split in this backfield. Michael Carter played 31 snaps, turning 13 touches into 86 yards and a touchdown.
James Robinson played 24 snaps, turning 15 touches into 53 yards and his first touchdown with the team.
Carter ran 12 pass routes to Robinson’s nine.
That type of split muddies the water here and leaves both backs as RB3/FLEX options that you may need to elevate based on byes. But this is not an optimal matchup as a road underdog against New England.
When these teams met in Week 8, Jets backs combined for 84 total yards on 18 touches. The Patriots are allowing just 9.1 rushing points per game (third) to opposing backs and 8.3 receiving points per game (ninth) to the position. Opposing backs have been held out of the end zone in every game but one this season against New England.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the lone Jet wideout we can willingly take a shot on in fantasy at the time. He comes out of the bye coming off games of 6-115-0 and 8-92-0 against this New England defense and Buffalo, two of the tougher draws in the league.
Wilson has been targeted on 24.9% of his routes as a rookie, which ranks 13th among all wide receivers in the league with 100 or more pass routes this season.
There is still volatility here due to quarterback play, which keeps Wilson as more of an upside WR3 option. He is 48th among all wideouts in catchable target rate (69.8%).
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has once again been a rocksteady fantasy performer. He has been a top-40 weekly scorer in each of his past six games with three top-20 games over that span. Meyers has not topped 60 yards in a game since Week 5, but he has already found the end zone a career-high three times.
Meyers has been targeted on 23.6% of his routes, which is 19th among wide receivers. He collected a gaudy 37.5% of the team targets when these teams played in Week 8, catching 9-of-12 targets for 60 yards and a score.
Meyers gets matchup leverage here since he plays 60% of his snaps in the slot. The Jets are allowing a league-low catch rate (52.1%) and 6.9 yards per target (fourth) to boundary wide receivers, but 48.4% of the wide receiver receptions against the Jets have come from the slot, the second-highest rate in the league.
Meyers is a floor-based WR2 in full-PPR formats and on the WR3 bubble in non-PPR formats.
Elijah Moore: Moore is expected to be out of the doghouse and moving into a full-time slot role coming out of the bye. We will stick a pin in that and see how true both his playing time and where he lines up when in the game.
Moore has 16 catches for 203 yards on the season, so we won’t be rushing him into any lineups.
Moore had 61 catches for 888 yards from the slot at Mississippi in 2020. So far in the NFL, Moore has run 157 routes in the slot compared to 392 routes out wide.
Tyquan Thornton: Thornton has secured just 3-of-11 targets for 37 yards since his two-touchdown performance back in Week 6. If looking for a positive, he has been second on the team in routes run the past two games, which includes a full game played by DeVante Parker. Thornton is playing 86% of his snaps on the outside, however, where the Jets have all but erased opposing wideouts as noted above.
That leaves Thornton has a desperation wide receiver swing in the deepest of formats.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin has just one TE1 scoring week over his past six games, but it did come in this matchup in Week 8 when Conklin pulled in 6-of-10 targets for 79 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
That was the only game in which Conklin has had more than 22 yards since Week 4, so he still takes a step of faith as a streamer if thin this week.
That said, there is plenty of matchup appeal if chasing another touchdown opportunity as the Patriots have allowed a 10.3% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, 31st in the league.
Patriots TEs: Over the front half of the season, Hunter Henry (19-240-1) and Jonnu Smith (16-154-0) have combined for just a pair of TE1 scoring weeks this season, both of which have come from Henry.
When these teams met in Week 8, Smith caught 3-of-4 targets for 10 yards while Henry caught his lone target for 22 yards.
The Jets are one of two teams left in the league that has yet to allow a tight end to reach the end zone, which does not even provide objective cover to chase either Patriot tight end as even a touchdown or bust Hail Mary.
Jets vs Patriots Prediction for Week 11:
Based on the Sharp Football moneyline outcome model, recent trends & key matchups, we predict the Patriots will win this Week 11 game.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: