The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14  Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game on December 8, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
16Implied Total24.5
24.824Points All./Gm22.718
64.821Opp. Plays/Gm61.910
50.3%32Opp. Rush %42.8%23
49.7%1Opp. Pass %57.2%10
  • The Bengals have lost 11 straight road games, the longest streak in the league and their longest as a franchise since losing 15 straight away games over the 1992-1994 seasons.
  • Cincinnati led for 51 offensive snaps in Week 13 after leading for 45 offensive snaps all season prior. 
  • The Browns are 10th in first-half point differential (plus-23), but 27th in second-half point differential (minus-49).
  • Cincinnati is allowing 14.9 rushing yards per possession, the most in the league.
  • The Bengals have allowed 968 rushing yards on runs of 10 or more yards, trailing only the Panthers (975).
  • Nick Chubb has gained 600 yards (51.1% of his season total) on runs of 10 or more yards, trailing only Lamar Jackson (673 yards) on the season. 
  • Baker Mayfield is 34th of out 35 qualifying passers in the league in completion percentage (56.7%) without using play-action as opposed to 17th while using play-action (66.9%). That 10.2% gap is the third-largest in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Nick Chubb: Chubb has been an RB1 in just one of his past six games, but is still averaging 22.5 touches per game over that span. What has limited him is finding the end zone – just one touchdown in those games – and that he’s caught just six passes in the four games since Kareem Hunt was activated. That one RB1 scoring week came in a spot very similar to this against the Dolphins (164 total yards) as a huge home favorite against a bottom-dwelling run defense. Even in limiting the Jets last week, the Bengals still rank 30th in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields per game (157.9).
  • Jarvis Landry: Landry has been a better fantasy asset than Odell Beckham and runs into a good spot here this week. Landry is averaging 10.7 targets per game over his past six with double-digit targets in five of those weeks. He’s held a far more stable floor, finishing lower than a WR3 in just one of his past nine games. 
  • Odell Beckham: Beckham is also in a good spot, but hasn’t been as reliable as Landry. Beckham has been higher than WR35 just four times this season and hasn’t hit 100-yards in a game since Week 6. The Bengals don’t give up a ton of points to wideouts (10th) since they are steadily being bludgeoned by the opposing running game, but do allow the efficiency where it counts, ranking 31st in yards per target (10.0), 25th in fantasy points per target (1.97) and 23rd in completion rate (63.3%) to opposing wideouts. They also rank 30th in completion rate on deep targets (52.3%).
  • Baker Mayfield: As of now, the weather looks good for this game, so the layout is similar to what this passing game had two weeks ago when they faced the Dolphins. The Bengals are 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.50) and dead last in yards allowed per completion (13.0). Mayfield was the QB5 (25.9 points) and the QB8 (24.9) in his two matchups with the Bengals a year ago. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Joe Mixon: It may have come too little, too late for fantasy owners, but Mixon has finally gotten consistent usage and production in this offense. Over his past five games, Mixon is averaging 22.0 touches for 96 yards and 15.4 fantasy points per game after 14.1 touches for 50.6 yards and 8.9 points over his first seven games. Last week, Mixon played a season-high 79% of the snaps and ran a season-high 21 pass routes. That was against an elite run defense while the Browns are allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs (24th). Game script is unlikely to be as favorable than last week for Mixon and this offense, but his usage has finally offered a steady RB2 floor.
  • Kareem Hunt: Hunt has been a top-30 scorer in each of his first four games and a top-15 scorer in three of those games. He should be treated in a similar fantasy vein as Austin Ekeler, with a little more rushing pop. Eventually, touchdown variance will bring down his overall output and the return of Njoku could impact his target volume, but Hunt has double-digit touches in every game and can piggyback onto the matchup laid out earlier for Chubb. 
  • Tyler Boyd: Since voicing his displeasure in not being used in Week 11, Boyd has received 19 targets the past two weeks. He’s now had double-digit points in four of his past five games with at least five receptions in five of his past six. John Ross returns to action this week to join Boyd and Auden Tate, but Boyd is the most trustworthy option here. The Browns rank ninth in points allowed per target to opposing wideouts (1.62) and are seventh in catch rate (58.9%) to the position. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Andy Dalton: Dalton has thrown more than one touchdown pass in just one of his past seven starts and hasn’t averaged over 7.0 yards per pass attempt in a game since Week 2. The Browns have allowed just three QB1 games over their past eight and all three had a rushing touchdown. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • David Njoku: Njoku is set to return for the first time since Week 2. The Browns target tree is suddenly crowded, but he’s set up with two strong matchups over the next two weeks. The first here against a Bengals defense that is 30th in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends (9.1).

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

DAL at CHI | DET at MIN | BAL at BUF | SF at NO | IND at TB | CIN at CLE | DEN at HOU | WAS at GB | CAR at ATL | MIA at NYJ | LAC at JAX | TEN at OAK | KC at NE | PIT at ARI | SEA at LAR | NYG at PHI