The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14  Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears Thursday Night Football game on December 5, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.
22.75Implied Total19.75
19.78Points All./Gm17.34
62.514Opp. Plays/Gm64.720
41.2%17Opp. Rush %40.3%15
58.8%16Opp. Pass %59.7%18
  • The Bears are a league-worst 3-9 against the spread. 
  • Dallas is second in the league in first down conversion rate (30.3%) on first and second down while leading the league in first down rate on third downs (49.0%).
  • Dallas leads the league in yards per pass play (8.2) while Chicago is 30th (5.8).
  • Chicago is sixth in yards allowed per pass play (6.2) while Dallas is eighth (6.4).
  • The Cowboys lead the league in yards per play on third down (8.1) while the Bears are 30th (4.7).
  • Dallas is first in fourth quarter point differential (59) while Chicago is 31st (-42).
  • The Cowboys haven’t forced a turnover in four straight games, matching their longest such streak in franchise history. 
  • Through seven weeks, Dallas had a 12-to-11 passing to rushing touchdown ratio. Since their bye in Week 8, that ratio has been 11-to-1 passing. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since Week 9, but he’s posted 137 and 126 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks. The Dallas touchdown splits have favored the passing game, but variance is a good bet to swing back towards Elliott in that department before the season ends. Chicago has slipped in the rushing department as the season has worn on, now ranked 22nd in rushing points allowed per game (13.5) to backfields.
  • Dak Prescott: Prescott has faced the number one and number three fantasy pass defenses the past two weeks with mixed results. He struggled on the road in the rain against New England (6.9 points) and then a catch up fueled strong fantasy game against the Bills (22.7 points) at home. This week he faces a Bears defense that is seventh in passing points allowed per game (12.8). The highest a quarterback has finished against the Bears this season is QB12, but they have allowed top half scoring weeks to all of Teddy Bridgewater (19.9 points), Jeff Driskel (18.1), Daniel Jones (14.7), and David Blough (17.3) over their past six games, who are far from the class of fantasy option that Prescott is.
  • Amari Cooper: Cooper is good to go this Thursday after sustaining another injury scare on Thanksgiving. On the field, we’ll have to contend with Cooper’s funky road splits. Cooper is averaging 35.5 receiving yards per game on the road as opposed to 126.3 per game at home. That 90.8 yardage per game split is the largest in the league. He’s finished higher than WR30 in just one road game so far this season. Matchup-wise, things aren’t overly daunting if those splits are truly just noise. The Bears have allowed just seven touchdowns to opposing wideouts (tied for the third-fewest), but Bears lead cornerback Kyle Fuller has allowed 54 receptions in coverage this season, which is the third-most of all cornerbacks in the league and the most allowed by a primary boundary corner. 
  • Allen Robinson: Robinson has 10 and 12 targets the past two weeks, cashing both high-volume games in for 6-131-1 and 8-86-1. Dallas has been excellent in defending boundary wideouts this season (fourth in the league), but have gotten a bit leaky to inside wideouts, where Robinson runs 42% of his routes.  Cole Beasley (6-110-1) and Julian Edelman (8-93) have damaged the Cowboys inside the past two weeks.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky has come through in his past three streaming spots, but this is not a matchup versus the Lions or Giants. Dallas has yet to allow more than two touchdown passes in any game this season while holding eight passers to one touchdown or fewer in eight games. 
  • Tarik Cohen: Cohen is a low-ceiling FLEX option, that primarily is blocking David Montgomery from having a safe floor than being truly useful himself. Cohen has topped 50 total yards in just two games all season, but Dallas is 24th in receptions allowed per game (5.8) to running backs if you need to pursue a floor.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Michael Gallup: Gallup should also find Fuller as he runs 33% of his routes at RWR (Cooper is at 47%). Gallup doesn’t have the volume upside as Cooper, catching four or fewer passes in six of his past seven games played and reaching 70 receiving yards in just two of those games, but still carries some upside per target as he’s averaging 16.2 yards per catch.
  • David Montgomery: Montgomery’s 87 total yards last week against the Lions were his most in a game since Week 8. He left that game with his first receiving touchdown of the season, but his overall receiving usage is still lacking due to the presence of Tarik Cohen. Montgomery hasn’t had more than three targets in any of his past four games played with six total receptions for 40 yards over that span. Dallas ranks 17th on the season in rushing points allowed per game (12.9) to backs.
  • Anthony Miller: After having no relevancy all season prior, Miller has 11, nine, and 13 targets over his past three games with six or more receptions in all three of those games. He also gets a piece of that slot matchup, running a team-high 77% of his routes from the inside.

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

DAL at CHI | DET at MIN | BAL at BUF | SF at NO | IND at TB | CIN at CLE | DEN at HOU | WAS at GB | CAR at ATL | MIA at NYJ | LAC at JAX | TEN at OAK | KC at NE | PIT at ARI | SEA at LAR | NYG at PHI