|46.1%||28||Opp. Rush %||43.1%||25|
|53.9%||5||Opp. Pass %||57.0%||8|
- The Jaguars are last in the league in rushing touchdowns (three) and are the only team in the league without a rushing touchdown from further than one-yard out this season.
- Jacksonville has had the ball with lead in just four games this season, the fewest in the league.
- The Chargers are averaging 141.0 more total yards per game than their opponents over their past four games, the most in the league, but have a 1-3 record in those games.
- The Jaguars have been outscored by 82 points over their past four games, the last differential in the league. The next highest team over that span (the Giants) have a minus-49 point differential.
- Jacksonville has allowed a touchdown on 32.6% of their opponent’s possessions over that span, the highest rate in the league.
- 29.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Jaguars have been via rushing, the second-highest rate behind only Carolina (31.1%).
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Melvin Gordon: Gordon had 90 or more yards in each of his past four games with 100 or more in three of those contests. We’d still like to see his receiving role (2.5 receptions per game) bounce back to his 2016-2018 usage, but this rushing matchup is enough to elevate him. The Jaguars have allowed 160.8 rushing yards per game to backfields over their past four games with seven rushing touchdowns in those games. Four different backs have hit 100 yards on the ground in those games.
- Leonard Fournette: Fournette hasn’t rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 7, but he just keeps delivering a solid floor of points based on his immense workload. Fournette has 49.4% of the Jacksonville offensive touches and he has seven or more receptions in four of the past five games. 41.2% of the fantasy points scored against the Chargers have been by opposing backfields (31st).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Keenan Allen: Allen hasn’t had more than 71 yards in a game since Week 3, but he’s gotten some of his floor back the past three weeks, catching 22-of-29 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns with three top-20 weeks. Allen runs 52% of his routes from the slot, where D.J. Hayden is allowing 0.52 yards per coverage snap, fourth-fewest in the league.
- Hunter Henry: Henry was a no-show last week, receiving a season-low three targets (10.3%) for two catches and 10 yards. He’ll look to bounce back here against a Jacksonville defense that is 30th in fantasy points allowed per target (2.02) to tight ends, but is fourth in overall targets faced to the position.
- Austin Ekeler: He just keeps getting there despite Gordon returning to the lineup and making him a one-dimensional fantasy back. Ekeler has rushed for more than 24 yards in just one game since Gordon returned, but has been a top-30 scorer in seven of those eight games. He’s run on the right side of touchdown variance, catching a touchdown pass in four of his past six games. Even in the two games he didn’t catch a touchdown over that span, Ekeler had 13.3 and 21.2 fantasy points.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Philip Rivers: Rivers has been in the back half of positional scoring in each of his past five games. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game since Week 1. Because the Jaguars have been getting torched on the ground, they’ve been solid versus the pass overall, allowing just two top-12 scoring weeks over their past eight games, with both of those quarterbacks (Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill) adding 37 rushing yards and 40 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to their fantasy totals.
- Gardner Minshew: Minshew was a QB1 in three of his eight starts earlier in the season, with two of those coming against the Bengals and Jets, teams we have targeted for streaming all season long. The Chargers are not in that bucket. The Chargers haven’t allowed a QB1 week since Week 3 and have allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt over their past five games.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jaguars WRs: This unit was once dominated by D.J. Chark, but he’s been ultra-volatile while Dede Westbrook has come on of late. Chark has two top-30 scoring weeks over his past seven games with 53 receiving yards or fewer in five of those games. Over the past two weeks, Chark has had just 12.4% of the targets. Westbrook had nine and eight targets the past two weeks with six catches in each game. Westbrook has found the end zone just twice all season, so he’s more of a floor-based play if using him. Chris Conley is also still hanging around, as he’s had 7.3 targets per game over his past six games played and is second on the team in air yards (559) over that span. He’s out-targeted Chark 14-11 the past two games. Chark was Minshew’s target of choice while under center with 22.0% of the targets. The Chargers are fifth in the league in points allowed to boundary wide receivers and sixth versus slot wideouts, so sorting out this situation may end up moot in the end.
- Mike Williams: Less of Williams has meant more. Williams is averaging just 5.1 targets per game over his past six games, but is catching 61.2% of his targets for 25.0 yards per reception over that span. He’s still yet to find the end zone at all this season after 10 scores a year ago as his last end zone target came back in Week 9. Despite their defensive struggles, the Jaguars are still tied for fifth in the league with only eight touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts.
More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: