The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14  Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on December 8, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
24.5Implied Total19
18.25Points All./Gm15.73
57.82Opp. Plays/Gm61.47
36.2%4Opp. Rush %37.9%8
63.8%29Opp. Pass %62.14%25
  • Baltimore has won eight consecutive games, their second-longest winning streak in franchise history behind a 12-game winning streak over the 2000-2001 seasons. 
  • The Bills are a league-best 8-3-1 against the spread this season and a league-best 4-0-1 as underdogs.
  • Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 44.8% of their drives on the road, the highest rate in the league. The next closest team (Houston) is at 30.5%.
  • Buffalo has allowed a touchdown on 15.7% of their opponent’s possessions, third in the league. 
  • The Ravens have rushed for over 100 yards as a team in 19 consecutive games, a franchise record and the longest streak since the Cowboys also went 19 straight games over the 2015-2016 seasons.
  • Lamar Jackson recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season in Week 13, the most ever in a season for a quarterback in league history. 
  • Jackson leads the league in runs of 10 or more yards (38) and percentage of runs to result in a first down (44.8%).
  • 67.8% (673 yards in total) of Jackson’s rushing yardage has come on runs of 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
  • 42.5% of Jackson’s fantasy points have come via rushing, the highest rate of all quarterbacks. Josh Allen is second at 37.8%.
  • Devin Singletary’s 2.74 yards before contact per carry leads all backs with 50 or more carries on the season. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Lamar Jackson: In a rain-soaked atmosphere against one of the top defenses in the league, Jackson still managed to have his 11th game with 20-plus fantasy points. The Bills rank third in expected points added defensively, but Jackson has already faced the top two defenses in that category and posted QB1 scoring weeks against both. Jackson enters this game 62 rushing yards short of the all-time record for a quarterback in a season set by Michael Vick in 2006.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Mark Ingram: 37.7% of Ingram’s fantasy output is from touchdown production, the second-most of all top-24 scoring backs on the season, but there are worse spots to be for a touchdown-reliant back. Opposing backs have scored 52.6% of the touchdowns allowed by the Bills, the second-highest rate in the league. 
  • Josh Allen: Allen has had a consistent ceiling like Jackson, but he’s also had a high floor due to his rushing production. Allen has 17 or more points in eight straight games with 19 or more in four straight. The latter two came against defenses that rank fifth and ninth in passing points allowed on the season. The Ravens rank fourth (11.6 per game). Baltimore hasn’t allowed a passer to finish than QB15 in a game since Week 3 and hasn’t allowed more than 27 rushing yards to any quarterback while facing Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson during their hot run. 
  • Mark Andrews: This is a tricky spot for Andrews. We’re not sitting the TE3 who tied for the league-lead with seven touchdowns at the position, but Andrews has seen his usage dip while having a tough matchup. Andrews has six or fewer targets in four of his past five games after seeing seven or more looks in each of his opening seven games. But he’s also scored a touchdown in three of his past four games. The Bills are allowing just 6.2 yards per target to tight ends (third) and just two touchdowns while allowing a league-low 7.5 points per game to the position. 
  • Devin Singletary: Singletary has been a top-24 scorer in four of his past six games and is coming off his second top-12 scoring week of the season. Both have come in weeks in which he has found the end zone, this time with his second receiving score on the season, his first touchdown since Week 9. Sharing short-yardage opportunities with Allen and Frank Gore limit his scoring chances weekly, while he’s still not used enough in the passing game. Singletary has reached 30 yards receiving just three times with single-digit yardage in his previous three games prior to last week. Despite their defense getting right, Baltimore has allowed some spike weeks on the ground during that stretch, allowing 114 yards rushing to Joe Mixon and 148 yards on the ground to Raheem Mostert
  • John Brown: Brown has saved his floor the past two weeks a receiving touchdown and a passing touchdown the past two weeks in two tough matchups. But Brown has had just four targets in each of those games against the Broncos and Cowboys with five catches for 65 yards combined in those games. For as strong as their passing game turnaround has been, the Ravens have still allowed a top-30 scoring wideout in each of their past six games with five top-20 scoring options.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Marquise Brown: Brown has fewer than 50 yards receiving in seven of his past eight games. He had a season-low two targets last week in a game impacted by weather and matchup. In Buffalo, the weather could always be an issue, but the matchup is definitely not strong. Buffalo has allowed just five touchdowns to opposing wide receivers all season (only New England has allowed fewer) and they rank third in rate of receptions of 20 or more yards allowed (9.6%).
  • Cole Beasley: Beasley is running hot on touchdown output, scoring in five of his past seven games. That touchdown output has come with Beasley receiving just one end zone target all season long. That can’t last, but Beasley also has six receptions in each of his past two games to go along with 16 targets. With Brown having another tough matchup, Beasley could have extra targets come his way.

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

DAL at CHI | DET at MIN | BAL at BUF | SF at NO | IND at TB | CIN at CLE | DEN at HOU | WAS at GB | CAR at ATL | MIA at NYJ | LAC at JAX | TEN at OAK | KC at NE | PIT at ARI | SEA at LAR | NYG at PHI