The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14  Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game on December 8, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
IndianapolisRank@Tampa BayRank
22.25Implied Total25.25
21.415Points All./Gm28.830
595Opp. Plays/Gm66.828
39.1%11Opp. Rush %33.2%1
60.9%22Opp. Pass %66.8%32
  • The Buccaneers are a league-worst 0-4 against the spread at home this season. 
  • Games involving Tampa Bay average 134.8 combined plays and 24.6 possessions per game, the most in the league in both categories. 
  • 40.4% of the Colts offensive yardage has been via rushing, trailing only the Ravens (49.4%).
  • 21.3% of the yardage gained against the Buccaneers this season has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Since their bye in Week 7, the Buccaneers have allowed just one rushing touchdown (tied for fewest in the league) compared to 16 passing touchdowns, the most in the league.
  • Opponents average 26.3 completions per game versus the Buccaneers, second in the league behind Arizona (27.5).
  • Through eight games, Mike Evans (28.0%) and Chris Godwin (24.0%) commanded 52.0% of the team targets. Over the past four games, Evans (21.4%) and Godwin (20.8%) have accounted for 42.2%.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Mike Evans: Evans has exactly four catches in each of his past four games, as the Bucs have extended their passing game usage tree beyond just Evans and Godwin over the past four games. But the 11 targets last week for Evans were the most he’s had in a game since Week 9. The Colts have given up some big games to vertical wideouts of late in Will Fuller (7-140), DeAndre Hopkins (6-94-2), and D.J. Chark (8-104-2) while allowing a 40-yard touchdown pass to Kalif Raymond last week over their past three games. 
  • Jack Doyle: Doyle had a team-high 11 targets (6-73-1) in his first game without Eric Ebron. With the Colts missing so many receivers, Doyle should be a high-volume target once again in a great matchup. Tampa Bay is allowing 5.3 receptions (26th) for 66.3 yards (29th) per game to opposing tight ends with seven touchdowns allowed to the position (30th) with eight TE1 scoring weeks allowed.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Chris Godwin: Godwin has been held to 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of his past six games with one game topping 74 yards over that span. We know he’s still capable of a high ceiling in any given week, but even during that reduced output from his early-season totals, Godwin has had a high floor still as he has been a top-25 scorer in four of those six games.
  • Jameis Winston: Winston has averaged 11.2 and 8.1 yards per attempt the past two weeks, but game script has kept his volume in check with 28 and 33 pass attempts. The Colts have allowed just two of the past six quarterbacks they’ve faced to reach 15 fantasy points, but haven’t been challenged by high-end fantasy options over that span in facing Joe Flacco, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, and Ryan Tannehill outside of Deshaun Watson

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Marlon Mack: After missing the past two games with a broken hand, Mack is targeting a return to the lineup this week. The overall matchup couldn’t be worse for a run-first back. 83.6% of Mack’s of fantasy output has stemmed from rushing this season, the highest-rate of the top-20 scoring backs on the season. The Bucs are allowing a league-low 8.0 rushing points per game to backfields with four touchdowns allowed on the ground all season (tied for fourth) to backs.
  • Buccaneers RBs: Any time we have a home favorite, we typically like to target the running game, but this backfield is seemingly back to being up for grabs. After it appeared that Ronald Jones was finally taking over, Jones played just 21 snaps last week with six touches after being benched for a failed blitz pickup. Peyton Barber then led the team with 30 snaps and 17 touches, his most touches in a game since Week 2. Dare Ogunbowale played more (23 snaps) than Jones as well. The Colts are allowing 9.8 rushing points per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league, so we don’t have to force ourselves to sort of this rotation of usage.  

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Jacoby Brissett: Brissett hasn’t been in the top half of quarterback scoring in a week since Week 7. He’s thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in each of his past four full games played and the Colts passing game has been purged by injuries. But he’s facing a Bucs pass-funnel defense that is still 31st in passing points allowed per game (20.2) despite limiting the Jacksonville and Atlanta passing games over their past two games. 
  • Zach Pascal: Pascal has received six, seven, six, and 10 targets in the four games he’s played without T.Y. Hilton this season, having two strong games of 5-76-1 and 7-109 surrounding games of 2-26 and 2-17. Parris Campbell is expected to return this week, which is another body after the team also lost Chester Rogers a week ago, but Pascal is a good bet to see six or more targets against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed a league-high 59.0% of the fantasy points they allow to be scored by wide receivers. 

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

DAL at CHI | DET at MIN | BAL at BUF | SF at NO | IND at TB | CIN at CLE | DEN at HOU | WAS at GB | CAR at ATL | MIA at NYJ | LAC at JAX | TEN at OAK | KC at NE | PIT at ARI | SEA at LAR | NYG at PHI