Broncos vs Colts Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Denver	Rank	@	Indianapolis	Rank
6		Spread	-6
19		Implied Total	25
16	29	Points/Gm	23.8	15
19.4	8	Points All./Gm	23	17
62.6	20	Plays/Gm	66.5	7
60.3	8	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.5	5
42.0%	13	Rush%	46.4%	5
58.0%	20	Pass%	53.6%	28
43.1%	23	Opp. Rush %	38.5%	12
56.9%	10	Opp. Pass %	61.5%	21

The Colts are the only team in the league that have played a one-score game in every game this season.
Jacoby Brissett leads all quarterbacks in producing a passing or rushing touchdown on 26.8% of his possessions.
Brissett leads the league in fantasy points from inside of the 5-yard line (39.2). His eight pass touchdowns from inside of the 5-yard line are double that of the next highest passer.
The Colts have thrown 72.2% of the time inside of the 5-yard line this season, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 38.5%.
Opponents have converted 38.1% (8-of-21) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Broncos, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Denver is allowing 312.7 fantasy yards from scrimmage per game, the fourth-fewest in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Marlon Mack: With his lack of receiving work (10 catches for 54 yards) and the Colts so pass-heavy near the goal line, Mack’s ceiling has taken a major hit. He’s been an RB1 just once on the season, but has been lower than an RB2 just twice. He’s still a home favorite back, but after allowing 149.3 rushing yards per game over the first four weeks, Denver has allowed 51.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
T.Y. Hilton: Healthy out of the bye, Hilton went right back to commanding 27.5% of the team targets. Hilton has reached 75 yards in a game just once so far, but has scored a touchdown in four of his five games played. That touchdown output is going to inevitably regress and the Broncos are seventh in points allowed to opposing WR1 options per game (11.5). But Hilton can avoid Chris Harris to a degree. Hilton runs 30% of his routes from the slot, where Harris has traveled for just 7.4% of his coverage snaps this season.
Courtland Sutton: Sutton has taken over the featured wideout in this offense and now Emmanuel Sanders has been traded. He has at least seven targets in every game this season (although no more than nine in any game) and has a 67% catch rate after a 50% rate as a rookie. Sutton has turned in five-straight top-30 scoring weeks.
Broncos RBs: Royce Freeman has out-snapped Phillip Lindsay in four consecutive games (147-109), but Lindsay still has the edge in touches (58-55) over that span. Last week saw Freeman get his first carry inside of the 5-yard line, which could cloud this split moving forward from a projection stance. Both remain lower-end FLEX options. The Colts haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 2 and have gotten much stronger against the run of late, allowing 94 yards rushing on 29 carries to the Kansas City and Houston backfields over their past two games.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Joe Flacco: He’s been the QB25 or lower in three straight games and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one game this season.
Zach Pascal: Pascal has seven targets in two of his past three games. He’s been the option behind Hilton from a target stance, but Pascal was still playing behind Deon Cain and Chester Rogers in terms of routes run once again in Week 7. The Broncos are fourth in the league in receptions allowed per game (9.9) to opposing wideouts, leaving Pascal as more of a flyer until he completely passes Cain and Rogers.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett is fourth in the league with 14 touchdown passes this season and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one his six starts. The schedule has been kind in totality, but this may be his toughest matchup on the season. Denver has yet to allow a top-12 quarterback scorer this season and rank fifth in yards per pass attempt (6.3) allowed to opposing passers, but outside of Aaron Rodgers, have not faced a daunting rogues gallery of signal-callers.
Eric Ebron: The duo of Ebron and Jack Doyle still limit each other, but Doyle has shown little to no fantasy appeal so far while Ebron is the better bet for any type of tangible yardage or touchdown production. Doyle has one game with more than 25 yards receiving this season while Ebron has at least 40 yards in three of the past four weeks. Ebron has now three end zone targets compared to just one for Doyle on the season.
DaeSean Hamilton: With the trade of Sanders, that opens up 19% of the Denver targets and 27% of their air yards. Hamilton has one career game reaching 50 yards receiving, but he was a WR3 or better in three of his final four games in 2018 as a starter.
Noah Fant: The trade of Sanders also should have a trickle-down impact for Fant. Fant is eighth among all tight ends in routes run this season, but has yet to reach 40 yards in any game while having two or fewer receptions in five of his seven games. Fant is coming off a game in which he had a season-high five targets and 91 air yards, but still ended that game with one catch for seven yards.