Eagles vs Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Philadelphia	Rank	@	Buffalo	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
20.75		Implied Total	22.25
24.4	14	Points/Gm	20.2	22
26.6	24	Points All./Gm	15.2	3
64.7	11	Plays/Gm	64.7	12
62.7	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.8	11
42.8%	12	Rush%	43.0%	10
57.2%	21	Pass%	57.0%	23
38.3%	11	Opp. Rush %	37.7%	9
61.7%	22	Opp. Pass %	62.3%	24

The Bills are 11-2 straight up (7-5-1 ATS) as a favorite under Sean McDermott, trailing only the Colts 12-2 for the best record as a favorite over that span.
The Eagles have trailed for 68.4% of their snaps, 28th in the league.
Philadelphia has trailed by double-digits for 38.9% of their snaps, 27th in the league.
The Eagles rank 30th in the league in generating a first down on first or second down at 21.8%.
The Bills are second in the league in generating a first down on first or second down at 30.0%.
Carson Wentz has completed 37.0% (17-of-46) of his pass attempts 15-plus yards downfield, 26th of 31 passers with 20 or more such pass attempts.
Buffalo has allowed just 31.0% (9-of-29) of those pass attempts to be completed, third in the league.
Josh Allen has completed 37.5% (15-of-40) of those passes, which ranks 25th of the same group.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Josh Allen: Allen has at least 16 fantasy points in all five of his games outside of facing the Patriots, but has hit 20-plus points just twice so far. The Eagles are 25th in passing points allowed per game (17.2) and have allowed the two non-stationary passers they’ve faced in Aaron Rodgers (46 yards) and Dak Prescott (30 yards and a touchdown) to be productive on the ground.
John Brown: Brown has at least 50 yards receiving in every game this season and at least five receptions in five of his six games. The Eagles are 31st in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 options (20.6 points). Even with Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby returning last week, they gave up 5-106 to Amari Cooper.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Zach Ertz: He has sagged off the past two weeks with TE16 (4-54) and TE22 (2-38) weeks. The targets have still been respectable with Ertz receiving 21.9% and 19.2% of the team looks in those games, but are down from the 24.9% target share Ertz had through five games. The Bills are seventh in points per target (1.51) to opposing tight ends after ranking second in 2018.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Carson Wentz: He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 222.7 yards per game over the past six weeks. He was fine in a similar spot to this two weeks ago on the road in Minnesota, but this is a tough chase in Buffalo. The Bills have allowed 8.3 yards and 8.1 yards per pass attempt over their past two games to Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but they’ve yet to allow multiple touchdown passes in any game this season and haven’t allowed multiple touchdown passes at home to a quarterback since Week 2 of last season.
Alshon Jeffery: He has 24.4% of the team targets over the past four weeks, but Jeffery has managed to clear 52 yards receiving just once on the season so far. The Bills are first in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 options points (8.7) and receiving yardage (38.8) per game.
Bills RBs: Even with Devin Singletary coming back, it was Frank Gore who led this backfield with 53.6% of the snaps 12 touches while Singletary played 39.3% of the snaps and tallied seven touches. That split and production in a great matchup was a letdown and will be an issue here against a much better run defense. The Eagles are seventh in rushing points allowed per game (10.3). The Eagles do rank 14th in receiving points allowed per game (10.4) to make Singletary the better option over Gore, but the overall split in Gore’s favor is a hurdle.
Cole Beasley: He salvaged last week with a late touchdown, but now has just six catches for 37 yards over his past two games. The Eagles struggle on the outside, but are second in the league in defending slot wideouts.
Dallas Goedert: Goedert has two end zone targets over the past month, but he has run just 16.8 pass routes per game over the past four weeks. With the Bills defending tight ends so tightly dating back to last season, Goedert is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Eagles RBs: Jordan Howard has been an RB3 or better in four of his past five games while he has out-touched Miles Sanders 26-to-15 the past two weeks while the Eagles have steadily played from behind. Sanders has held FLEX value the past three weeks, but has limited upside due to Howard’s role on early downs and goal line situations. Running backs have accounted for 60% of the touchdowns scored against the Bills, the highest rate in the league.

More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: