Buccaneers vs Titans Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Tampa Bay	Rank	@	Tennessee	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
22		Implied Total	24.5
28.8	4	Points/Gm	17.3	27
30.8	30	Points All./Gm	16	4
66.7	5	Plays/Gm	60.7	25
67.3	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	62.1	12
38.8%	21	Rush%	44.5%	8
61.3%	12	Pass%	55.5%	25
34.9%	4	Opp. Rush %	38.9%	14
65.1%	29	Opp. Pass %	61.2%	19

Tampa Bay games average 59.7 combined points, the most in the league.
Tennessee games average 33.3 combined points, 31st in the league.
The Titans have allowed 20 or fewer points in each of the first seven games of a season for the first time since the 2000 season.
The Titans are the only team with a losing record and a positive point differential (+9) on the season.
Tennessee has a league-best 7-2 (77.8%) record against the spread in non-conference games since 2017, including five consecutive wins.
The Titans are first in the league in expected points added through run defense (31.8) while the Buccaneers are second (31.7).
Jameis Winston has completed 13.2% more of his passes (70.7%) for 4.5 more yards per pass attempt (11.7 yards) and has a 66.8-point higher passer rating (139.0) using play-action, but has used play-action on just 18.8% of his dropbacks, 33rd in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Corey Davis: He had a season-high 23.3% of the team targets in his first game with Ryan Tannehill starting, turning seven targets into a 6-80-1 line. That came against a much better secondary while the Tampa Bay defense is allowing a league-high 21.7 points per game to opposing WR1 options.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Chris Godwin: He’s been the WR6 or better in four of his past five games. Godwin is running hot in the touchdown department for fantasy (28.4% of his points, which is second among top-12 scoring wideouts) which will inevitably cool off. This is a good spot to target some touchdown regression as Tennessee is sixth in the league in points allowed to slot options, but Godwin also leads all wideouts in the rate of catches to go for a first down (88.4%) and receptions of 20-plus yards (13).
Mike Evans: Evans has two games with 15 (8-190-3) and 17 targets (9-96) this season with 10 catches for 178 yards over the other four games played this season. I’d fully anticipate the passing volume being lower here and the game much slower-paced on the road against a limiting Tennessee defense. That said, Evans does still have the best individual matchup against Malcolm Butler, who has allowed the eighth-most yards in coverage this season.
Derrick Henry: This is a tough spot as 18.3% of the yardage gained against the Buccaneers has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league. But the Titans aren’t going to stop giving Henry the football. Henry may be touchdown dependent here, but is a home-favorite back averaging 20.2 touches per game.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Jameis Winston: Winston’s best weeks have been identifiable per matchup or shootout potential, neither of which are in play here. Tennessee is 13th in passing points allowed (14.0), and have allowed just one top-12 scoring week on the season, although they’ve also held just two passers lower than QB16, which gives Winston some floor appeal in 2QB leagues.
Buccaneers RBs: We’re still dealing with an even split for Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. The Titans are tough to beat on the ground, but are exploitable through the air by opposing backfields, which is not the strength of this Tampa Bay backfield since their receiving back — Dare Ogunbowale — is not a part of their typical rotation outside of junk game script. Tennessee is 10th in rushing points allowed per game (10.5) to backs, but 30th in receiving points allowed per game (14.1).

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Ryan Tannehill: Last week’s 312 passing yards was the first 300-yard game for Tannehill since Week 3, 2016. While it may feel like chasing, Tannehill is arguably the best streaming option this week as he runs into a Tampa Bay pass-funnel defense allowing 19.1 passing points per game (27th) and have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to all of Kyle Allen (17.4), Teddy Bridgewater (27.3), Jared Goff (20.7), and Daniel Jones (34.2) over the past four weeks.
A.J. Brown: He’s still slightly behind Adam Humphries in routes run, but Brown has run 23, 27, and 20 routes the past three games. He’s also coming off a season-high eight targets (26.7%) and six receptions. The Buccaneers are allowing 15.0 receptions per game (31st) to opposing wide receivers.
Adam Humphries: Humphries has been higher than WR30 just once this season, but that matchup also applies to Humphries and the Bucs don’t discriminate per receiver position, ranking 26th in points allowed to slot wideouts.
Jonnu Smith: Surely Tannehill won’t support all of these passing-game options, but all have objectively positive matchups. With Delanie Walker a question mark here, Smith would step into a larger role after catching three passes for 64 yards a week ago. The Buccaneers are 31st in catches (6.8) and yards (82.8) allowed per game to opposing tight ends, but to be fair to them, they have faced Greg Olsen (x2), George Kittle, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, and Jared Cook, who are all a weight class or two above Smith.
Cameron Brate: Two injury streamers in the same game, Brate is elevated by O.J. Howard’s absence this week. The downside is that we already were avoiding Howard himself in the role Brate is elevated to. In the six games that Howard missed in 2018, Brate managed just one top-12 scoring week, catching 13-23 targets for 130 yards and three touchdowns. The Titans have allowed the TE13 or higher in five of seven games so far based on allowing four touchdowns to the position, but have allowed more than four catches in a game to just Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry.