Chargers vs Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

LA Chargers	Rank	@	Chicago	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
17.75		Implied Total	22.25
20	24	Points/Gm	18.7	26
20.1	10	Points All./Gm	17.5	5
62.6	21	Plays/Gm	60	27
56.3	3	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.3	25
33.8%	29	Rush%	34.7%	27
66.2%	4	Pass%	65.3%	6
49.5%	30	Opp. Rush %	38.9%	15
50.5%	3	Opp. Pass %	61.1%	18

The Chargers are tied for the league-lead with six games played that were decided by one score and are just 1-5 in those games.
The Bears are averaging 16.7 fewer offensive plays per game than their opponents, the lowest differential in the league.
The Bears have allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers for the first time since Weeks 11-12 of the 2015 season.
The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 40 yards in three straight games for the first time in franchise history.
Out of 71 players with 20 or more rushing attempts, Melvin Gordon ranks 70th in rate of runs to gain a first down (5.6%), 68th in rate of runs to gain zero yards (27.8%), 65th in rate to gain five or more yards (22.2%), and tied for last with 0.0% gaining 10 or more yards.
Chicago is the only team in the league that has yet to have 300 total yards in a game this season.
Just 3.9% of the Chicago offensive plays have gained 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Jets (3.2%) on the season. League average is 6.5%.
Chicago is averaging a league-low 45.0 rushing yards per game at home this season.
Mitchell Trubisky has a 103.0 quarterback rating from a clean pocket this season compared to a 38.3 rating under pressure. That 64.7 rating drop under pressure is the largest difference in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Hunter Henry: Henry has returned to be the TE1 (8-100-2) and TE5 (6-97). With the Chargers issues allowing pressure, Henry figures to maintain high usage while the Bears are allowing a league-high 79.1% of targets to tight ends to be completed while ranking 22nd in yardage allowed per game (58.2) to the position.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Allen Robinson: Robinson trails only Michael Thomas in weighted opportunity rating (0.70) through seven weeks of the season. He has at least six catches in five of six games with seven or more in four of those weeks. Casey Hayward has only traveled into the slot for five snaps this season, where Robinson runs 40% of his routes.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has just 13 carries for 28 yards since Gordon returned to the lineup, but his pass-catching ability makes him a far better fantasy option still. The Chargers flexed Ekeler out at wide receiver a season-high 20 times a week ago. He has 42.3 more receiving points than the next highest running back on the season while the Bears are 27th in receiving points allowed per game (13.3) to backfields.
Mike Williams: Keenan Allen suffered a hamstring injury in practice this week. Anthony Lynn has already stated that Allen will be on a limited snap count, even if he’s active this Sunday. That bumps Williams up in terms of opportunity. In 2018, Williams posted a 7-76-2 line on nine targets in Week 15 when Allen was forced from the game early. That’s the only sample we have of Williams playing without Allen, however. The Bears rank fourth in the league in rate of completions to gain 20-plus yards (10.8%) and have yet to allow a touchdown pass from outside of the red zone this season, but have allowed some strong games this season so far in Michael Thomas (9-131), Terry McLaurin (6-75-1), Emmanuel Sanders (11-98-1), and Stefon Diggs (7-108) to keep the lights on if he can roll over that target share from a week ago.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Philip Rivers: The interior offensive line is becoming an issue for Rivers as he’s been pressured on 40.1% of his dropbacks. The Chargers lost Forrest Lamp for the season this week, but the offense should get Russell Okung back this week to offer a small slice of sunshine. Rivers has been a top-12 scorer in just two if his past six games while the Bears have yet to allow a top-12 scoring week.
Mitchell Trubisky: The Chargers have allowed a league-high 75.5% completion rate this season and had no answer for the vaunted Tennessee passing game led by Ryan Tannehill a week ago. Another East Coast game for the Chargers and their play last week add some faint level of intrigue on the matchup not being tough, but Trubisky himself is averaging a league-worst 5.2 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per completion, leaving him as a low-level QB2 option still.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Melvin Gordon: 2.3 yards per rush and 3.8 yards per catch aren’t flattering as Gordon come back and posted 7.8, 7.8, and 8.9 points in his three games as this interior offensive line is broken. The rushing performance would be one thing, but Gordon also has caught just nine passes for 34 yards total in those three games. The Bears have struggled to defend the run the past two weeks, but did face the third and fifth-ranked offensive lines in adjusted line yards created for backfields the past two weeks while the Chargers rank 21st.
David Montgomery: Montgomery has two weeks higher than RB33 this year and is coming a game in which he played 46.2% of the snaps and had just four touches. The Bears have not been able to effectively run the football at all this season, so Montgomery takes a significant step of faith. But the Chargers have allowed 110, 208, and 214 yards from scrimmage to backfields over the past three weeks.
Tarik Cohen: He’s yet to top 49 total yards in a game this season, but has six and nine receptions the past two games, which can keep him in play as a lowest-level FLEX option. The Chargers are 10th in receiving points allowed per game (9.8) to opposing backfields.
Anthony Miller: He has 16 targets the past two weeks, catching nine passes for 116 yards. The game script has gone off the rails in both of those games, but the Chargers allowed Tennessee wideouts to catch 16-of-22 targets for 203 yards and two touchdowns a week ago.