Packers vs Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

• In their past seven games against the NFC, the Chiefs are 1-5-1 against the spread.
• In their past seven games against the AFC, the Packers are 6-1 against the spread.
• The Chiefs are 32nd in the league in expected points added by rushing defense (-20.2) while the Packers rank 30th (-13.7).
• LeSean McCoy averages 2.92 yards per carry more than his backfield teammates, the largest gap in the league for running backs with 20 or more rushing attempts.
• Last week’s 43.8 fantasy points were the second-most Aaron Rodgers has ever scored in a game behind a 45.9-point performance in Week 4, 2011. 
• With five touchdown passes, that snaps a 17-game streak in which Rodgers had thrown two or fewer touchdown passes, the longest streak of his career.
• Opposing wide receivers have accounted for just 46.2% of the receptions allowed by the Packers, the lowest rate in the league.
• Opposing wide receivers have accounted for just 48.4% of the receptions allowed by the Chiefs, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers may be the only player I’ve gotten fairly spot on every week this season. That doesn’t mean I know anything. But it does signal that Rodgers has evolved into a matchup-based quarterback for fantasy purposes. His three QB1 games this season have come against the Raiders, Lions, and Eagles. The Chiefs are middle of the pack, but have faced three top-12 scorers this season and have allowed Lamar Jackson to be the QB10 (21.3 points), Matthew Stafford to be the QB4 (23.4 points), and Deshaun Watson to be the QB3 (29.4 points). 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Packers RBs: Both Green Bay backs played significant snaps once again, but Aaron Jones had the edge, playing 34 snaps and handling 16 touches with Jamaal Williams playing 24 snaps and seven touches. Jones out-touched Williams 12-3 in the run game, which reinstalls some confidence in him moving forward. It’s a good spot for both as the Chiefs rank 29th in yards from scrimmage allowed per game (169.4) to opposing backfields.
• Tyreek Hill: All of the Chiefs’ primary options take a step back without Mahomes under center. Matt Moore targeted Hill and Travis Kelce five times each, and then spread nine other targets among six players. Hill only needs a play or two per game to make his week, as evidenced last Thursday. When Matt Moore last played heavy snaps over the 2016-2017 season, his most effective target was Kenny Stills, who caught 28-of-48 targets for 477 (17.0 Y/R) and caught six of Moore’s 12 touchdown passes.
• Travis Kelce: Moore targeted Kelce five times, but they were all near the line of scrimmage as Kelce corralled just two for 14 yards. Moore hurts Kelce from that touchdown regression many were chasing, but given the volume and the position he plays, Kelce is still a higher-end tight end option. It also doesn’t hurt the Packers were just gauged by tight ends in Week 7, allowing Oakland tight ends to catch 11-of-15 targets for 172 yards and three touchdowns.
• LeSean McCoy: McCoy has gained and edge of this timeshare and is the only Chiefs back worth placing any faith in at the moment. McCoy has played 29 (50%) and 26 (42.6%) snaps the past two weeks while handling 24 of the 40 backfield touches while Damien Williams has 13 touches for 26 yards the past two games. The Packers are allowing 158 yards from scrimmage per game to backfields (26th) and Andy Reid can create a game plan centered around his backfield to exploit a mismatch.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Matt Moore: Moore has started just five games since the 2011 season, finishing as QB17 or lower in four of those games. Those starts were with the Dolphins and didn’t have as much surrounding talent (or Andy Reid) as this Chiefs team, but Moore still requires a step of extreme faith as a streamer. The Packers are 11th in passing points allowed per game (13.7) and have allowed just two quarterbacks (Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott) to finish in the top half of weekly scoring. 
• Non-Hill Chiefs WRs: Where Patrick Mahomes raised all tides, with Moore taking over, we can finally be mercifully let go from chasing the ancillary options in this offense. Sammy Watkins could still hold some value if and when he returns to the field, but this matchup with the Packers is tougher with Green Bay allowing just 53.2% of targets to wideouts to be completed, the third-lowest rate in the league.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Jimmy Graham: Graham has a pedestrian nine catches for 123 yards over the three games without Adams active, but he leads the position in end zone targets (six) on the season and 32.2% of his targets this season have come from inside of the red zone, which leads all players. The Chiefs are 29th in receptions allowed per game (6.7) and 25th in yardage allowed per game (62.3) to tight ends to make Graham more than a touchdown-only option this week.
• Packers WRs: Hopefully this is the week we get Davante Adams back, but we’ll need to monitor his status throughout the week. If not, the routes run last week were led by Allen Lazard (28), Jake Kumerow (23), Geronimo Allison (23), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13). Targets were fairly flat, with Allison (five), Lazard (four), Valdes-Scantling (three), and Kumerow (two). The Chiefs aren’t a secondary to avoid, but because they get beat by some backfields and tight ends, wide receivers don’t pop as often. I would target Graham and the backs as the best bets in this offense.