The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 28.5 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 25.9 | 12 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 19 |
| 25.1 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 31.9 | 31 |
| 66.4 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 63 | 16 |
| 59.1 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 18 |
| 46.9% | 4 | Rush% | 29.7% | 31 |
| 53.1% | 29 | Pass% | 70.3% | 2 |
| 37.0% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 47.9% | 28 |
| 63.0% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 52.1% | 5 |
- The Falcons are a league-worst 1-6 against the spread this season.
- Atlanta is allowing 3.01 points per possession, the most points per drive in the league.
- Opponents have scored on 53.6% of their possessions against the Falcons, the highest rate outside of opponents against the Dolphins (54.8%)
- Russell Wilson has been under pressure for 41.4% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Atlanta has gone four consecutive games without a sack, their longest streak as a franchise and the longest streak in the league since the Chiefs in 2008.
- Seattle is third in the league in expected points added via their passing offense (80.7).
- The Falcons are dead last in expected points added via pass defense (-132.4). The next closest team is Miami (-92.1).
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Russell Wilson: We need Matt Ryan to play in this one to push the envelope because we’ve had Wilson in these spots before (Week 4) with great matchups and if the Seahawks end up controlling the game, then Wilson is going to end up with 20-25 pass attempts. But the Falcons are a weekly defense we’re attacking through the air, allowing six consectuive top-12 scoring weeks and multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games. To pile on, Atlanta is also 28th in rushing points allowed per game (4.2) to quarterbacks.
- Chris Carson: Regardless of game script, Carson is getting a heavy workload. Carson has 24 or more touches in four consectuive games and is tacking on 7.0 receiving points per game through seven weeks. The Falcons have actually been solid versus the run (seventh in YPC allowed to back and 17th in rushing points allowed) but game script, volume potential and scoring opportunities are heavy pros for Carson.
- Tyler Lockett: The overall volume could come into play as Lockett has just 15.9% of the team targets over the past four weeks. But Lockett has still been a WR2 or better in five of his past six games while we’re circling Wilson here..
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Julio Jones: His target share has bounced back with 25% and 27.3% of the opportunities the past two weeks, which he’s turned into 14 catches for 201 yards. The trade of Mohamed Sanu also frees up more targets to go in his direction, but Jones has never played a full game without Ryan. Seattle is 24th in yardage allowed per game (74.0) to opposing WR1 options.
- Austin Hooper: Hooper has run 23 more pass routes than the next closest tight end (Travis Kelce) this season. Schaub targeted Hooper on three of his six passes in relief last week, while Seattle is 28th in points allowed per game (14.8) to opposing tight ends.
- Devonta Freeman: Freeman has been dust in the rushing game. He’s rushed for 30 or fewer yards now in five games this season while posting a career-low 3.5 YPC. Seattle has allowed just two backs (Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara) to reach 50-yards on the ground in a game this season. If your league doesn’t give you receiving points, there’s limited upside here, but Freeman is still tacking on 3.9 receptions per game while Seattle is allowing 5.1 receptions per game (17th) to backfields.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Calvin Ridley: The trade of Mohmed Sanu allows Ridley to expand on his 15% target share, but Sanu also had just two targets last week and Ridley still only managed six targets, a number he has eclipsed just twice so far on the season. With Schaub potentially as the starter and Seattle ranking seventh in points allowed to boundary options, Ridley falls into WR4 territory.
- Matt Schaub: Schaub hasn’t started a game since Week 13, 2015 with the Ravens. He did throw for 308 yards in that game, but was still the QB23 with 12.3 fantasy points. Schaub is capable of not torpedoing the Atlanta pieces we care about most, but is still just a lower-end QB2 option himself.Seattle has allowed 16-plus fantasy points to five consecutive quarterbacks, but those quarterbacks also added 7.4 rushing points per game while Seattle ranks 10th in passing points allowed per game (13.5).
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has yet to clear four receptions in a game this season, but gets a matchup in which the Falcons rank 32nd in points allowed to opposing LWR options and 24th in RWR options. Metcalf runs 86% of his routes on the perimeter.
- Jaron Brown: The same applies to Brown, who runs 55% of his routes on the outside and has 11 targets the past two weeks, but like Metcalf, Brown is unlikely going to catch many overall passes, reeling in three or fewer receptions in every game this season.
More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
WAS at MIN | PHI at BUF | CIN at LAR | SEA at ATL | NYJ at JAX | LAC at CHI | NYG at DET | DEN at IND | ARI at NO | TB at TEN | CAR at SF | OAK at HOU | CLE at NE | GB at KC | MIA at PIT
