Panthers vs 49ers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET.

Carolina	Rank	@	San Francisco	Rank
5.5		Spread	-5.5
18		Implied Total	23.5
27.7	5	Points/Gm	26	11
22.2	15	Points All./Gm	10.7	2
64.2	14	Plays/Gm	68.3	3
69.7	31	Opp. Plays/Gm	53	1
40.8%	17	Rush%	57.1%	1
59.2%	16	Pass%	42.9%	32
36.4%	7	Opp. Rush %	41.8%	20
63.6%	26	Opp. Pass %	58.2%	13

The 64 points allowed by the 49ers are the second-fewest they’ve allowed through six games of a season in franchise history (63 points allowed in 1963).
Opponents have scored on 2-of-31 (6.5%) of their possessions against San Francisco over the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
The 49ers lead the league in percentage of drives to start in opponent’s territory (21.2%), cross midfield (69.7%) and reach the red zone (40.9%).
San Francisco ranks second in the league in expected points added via their pass defense (58.9) while the Panthers rank third (32.9).
Just 41.2% of the Carolina offensive touchdowns have come via passing (31st) while the 49ers are at 46.7% (30th).
Out of all 31 passers with 100-plus pass attempts this season, Kyle Allen ranks last in first down pass attempt rate (31.2%) and first in third down attempt rate (30.3%).
Allen has completed just 51.4% (19-of-37) of his third down passes, ahead of only Ryan Fitzpatrick (45.5%) and Josh Rosen (33.3%) for all passers with 20 or more third down passes.
San Francisco is first in the league in pressure rate (32.8%) while being 31st in the league in blitz rate (14.1%).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is averaging a league-high 153.8 yards from scrimmage per game while the 49ers have allowed any back to have 100 yards from scrimmage or finish higher than RB30 in game this season. I’ll go out on a limb and say McCaffrey will be higher than RB30 this week. Jest aside, McCaffrey has faced just one defense that ranks in the top-12 in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields (San Francisco is third) and that was the Buccaneers twice. In those games, McCaffrey tallied 18 touches for 53 yards and 18 touches for 57 yards, but the latter game also came along with two touches, showing how much scoring upside he still carries to go along with his volume.
George Kittle: Last week in the monsoon was Kittle’s first week in which he was not a TE1 option. He’s second at the position in target share (25%). The Panthers are seventh in points allowed to opposing tights this season, but the only TE1 option they have faced this season was Gerald Everett back in Week 1, when he was still a part-time player.
49ers RBs: The 49ers backfield has carried 68 times for 211 yards (3.1 YPC) over the past two weeks. That decline could be happenstance or the injuries to Joe Staley, Kyle Juszczyk, and Mike McGlinchey finally catching up to them. Regardless, the volume is still massive as Tevin Coleman has 16, 20 and 22 touches since his return while Matt Breida has 14, 17, and nine touches (he left early in Week 8). Carolina has been much better versus the pass than the run, ranking third in yards per pass play, but 24th in yards per run play (4.7).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Jimmy Garoppolo: He’s been higher than the QB15 just once while the Panthers are allowing 5.6 yards per pass play, which ranks third in the league.
Kyle Allen: Allen’s winning streak and streak of failing to throw an interception are strong, but he’s still been a marginal fantasy asset the past three weeks, averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt 213.3 yards per game since that opening start against the Cardinals. San Francisco has allowed the past three passers they’ve faced to complete 30-of-58 passes for 255 yards, zero touchdowns, and 2.2 fantasy points combined.
Greg Olsen: He has caught just 6-of-13 targets for 57 yards over the past three weeks while the 49ers are 10th in completion rate allowed to tight ends (65.6%) and first in yards per target (4.2) allowed to the position.
Curtis Samuel: He made good on his expected regression prior to the bye, but runs into a tough spot here. Samuel runs 50% of his routes at RWR and another 31% in the slot. The 49ers are allowing the fewest points to slot wideouts while they are 10th against RWR options.
D.J. Moore: He’s running 60% of his routes at LWR, where the 49ers are also first in the league in points allowed and where rookie Emmanuel Moseley has allowed just 0.42 yards per coverage snap, the lowest on the team.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Emmanuel Sanders: His trade was needed as the 49ers wideouts collectively rank 32nd in targets per game (13.0) and 31st in yardage per game (113.0 yards). That also is a potential thorn for Sanders himself getting the requisite volume to make a fantasy impact. For as good as the Panthers are versus the pass, opposing wideouts have accounted for 69.9% of the receptions they’ve allowed. That says a lot more about the offenses they’ve faced and where those teams allocate their targets. Carolina ranks third in fantasy points allowed per target to the position.

More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: