Browns vs Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 8

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots Sunday afternoon game on October 27, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.

Cleveland	Rank	@	New England	Rank
12.5		Spread	-12.5
16.75		Implied Total	29.25
20	23	Points/Gm	31.9	1
25.7	22	Points All./Gm	6.9	1
58.8	29	Plays/Gm	71.1	1
65.2	22	Opp. Plays/Gm	56.3	2
38.5%	23	Rush%	42.0%	14
61.5%	10	Pass%	58.0%	19
46.8%	27	Opp. Rush %	32.0%	1
53.2%	6	Opp. Pass %	68.0%	32

Including the postseason, the Patriots have won 19 consecutive games at home, the longest streak in the league. The next closest current home-winning streak is just three games.
The Patriots are the first team since the 1977 Falcons to allow 14 or fewer points in each of the first seven games of a season.
The last time the Patriots lost at home to a first- or second-year starting quarterback was Colin Kaepernick in 2012 (18 games) and have a 37-3 record against those passers at home under Bill Belichick.
Baker Mayfield currently has a 24.1 quarterback rating under pressure this season, the lowest in the league for all passers with 100 or more dropbacks this season.
Mayfield has a league-low 35.3 quarterback rating in the red zone this season, completing 9-of-29 passes (31.0%) with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Mayfield’s 11 interceptions are the most by a Browns quarterback through six games of a season since Brian Sipe (13) in 1973.
The Browns have converted just 29.6% of their third downs this season, 30th in the league.
New England is allowing 3.2 yards per play on third down, the fewest in the league.
Cleveland is allowing 6.8 yards per play on first down, the most in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Tom Brady: The only games in which Brady has failed to be a top-12 scorer was against the third and seventh ranked defenses in passing points allowed this season. Cleveland ranks 22nd at 16.3 passing points allowed per game. The only hang-up is that his wide receiving unit is more of a hodgepodge and Brady has had just 11.4 and 11.9 passing points in each of the past two weeks.
Nick Chubb: He’s collecting 22.3 touches per game (sixth in the league) for 122.5 yards from scrimmage per game (fourth). The Patriots rank first in the league in rushing points allowed per game (5.6) and have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back on the season. Chubb has faced two other top-10 teams in rushing points allowed to backs and was the RB24 versus the Titans (85 YFS) and the RB31 versus the 49ers (99 YFS).
Julian Edelman: The most reliable option at wide receiver, Edelman has 28.1% of the team targets over the past three weeks in which he’s been the WR10 (8-110-1), WR10 (9-113-0), and WR23 (7-47-0). Browns slot man Eric Murray currently has allowed the third-fewest yards per coverage snap (0.54) from the slot this season.
James White: If you need 12 PPR points, White is your guy. White has been the RB14-RB23 in every game this season with 11.9-13.8 PPR points in every game. Cleveland is 23rd in receiving points allowed per game (13.2) to opposing backfields.
Sony Michel: Michel has yet to hit 100-yards rushing in a game this season and is living off touchdown production (42.8% of his points), but both are still in play here as a home favorite. The Browns are 31st in yards allowed per rushing play (5.0).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Baker Mayfield: He’s yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game this season while the Patriots have allowed just one touchdown pass through seven games.
Odell Beckham: You’re still starting him in leagues because Beckham can beat anybody, especially if you’re all but guaranteed to get one-on-one coverage all game. But he’ll assuredly draw Stephon Gilmore for the entirety of the game. Gilmore has the third-lowest quarterback rating allowed (36.0) in the league. Beckham has only faced Gilmore once in his career, going all the way back to 2015 when he had five catches for 38 yards on 12 targets, catching 2-of-6 targets for 16 yards in Gilmore’s coverage.
Jarvis Landry: Landry has just two games in which he was higher than WR44 on the season. The Patriots rank fourth in the league in points allowed to opposing slot options, but have allowed Golden Tate (6-102-1), Cole Beasley (7-75), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-78) to have WR3 or better scoring weeks this season if you want to chase Landry while Beckham occupies the best defender on New England.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Non-Edelman Patriots WRs: With the Patriots acquiring Mohamed Sanu, that signals Josh Gordon may be out for an extended period. Sanu has some direct overlap to what Jakobi Meyers brings to the table, but also plays almost exclusively in the slot where Edelman runs 66% of his routes. We’ll need to see Sanu fits in and shakes things up. Phillip Dorsett has scored in three of his five full games played, but also has failed to surpass 53 yards since Week 1. To tack onto the uncertainty, Cleveland should finally be getting Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back on the field.
Ben Watson: Watson caught 3-of-5 targets for 18 yards in his debut on Monday, but did play 75.6% of the snaps and run 27 routes. The Browns are seventh in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends (6.6 yards) but have allowed four touchdowns to the position.