Steelers vs. Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Steelers and Chiefs on Christmas Day.

Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes: Playing through an ankle injury, Mahomes used his legs to elevate his fantasy game in Week 16.

He scored 23.7 fantasy points, propelled by 33 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

He had 9.5 rushing points over his five previous games, so it is hard to bank on those being static.

Mahomes had 14.4 passing points through the air, which is on par with his average entering the week (14.3), QB11 for the season.

We are still handling Mahomes as a floor-based fringe QB1 option for fantasy since we cannot rely on last week's rushing stats.

Kansas City has a pedestrian team total, and this game environment is not screaming for offensive fireworks.

The Steelers are 7th in passing points allowed (12.7 per game), but they have gotten leakier of late, offering some added upside.

Pittsburgh has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt over their past five games (28th), while allowing multiple touchdown passes in four straight games.

The Steelers could be getting Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott back this weekend. Still, Joey Porter Jr. is in question to be available after leaving Saturday’s game with a knee injury.

Porter Jr. has been on the field for all but 24 dropbacks this season.

Russell Wilson: Wilson put together a usable QB2 game (15.4 points) on Saturday, playing with one of the weakest supporting casts in the league.

Wilson is still best used as a QB2 or in DFS on Wednesday, but George Pickens is trending to be available to play this week.

Wilson has completed 65.9% of his passes for 8.8 Y/A with Pickens on the field.

He has completed 63% of his passes with Pickens off the field for 6.3 Y/A.

We still treat Wilson as a QB2 due to the low team total and implied game environment.

The Chiefs are 9th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.385) and 11th in passing points allowed per game (12.9).

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Running Back

Chiefs RBs: This was still a split on Saturday.

Kareem Hunt played 32 snaps, handling 13 touches for 79 yards and a touchdown.

Isiah Pacheco played 23 snaps, handling 10 touches for 25 yards.

Samaje Perine played 24 snaps, catching 3 passes for 50 yards.

Since Pacheco returned to action in Week 13, the team has eased him in and operated with a committee approach.

Hunt is still a factor near the end zone as the closer, while Perine bogarts the long down and distance snaps and the 2-minute snaps.

Since being active, Pacheco has rushed 43 times for 157 yards (3.7 YPC) with an explosive run on just 2.3% of his attempts.

The timeshare here has kept Pacheco and Hunt limited as touchdown-or-bust FLEX options.

Things don’t get easy for this run game here.

Pittsburgh allows 4.2 YPC to running backs (12th).

Steelers RB: Jaylen Warren had the best game from this backfield on Saturday, turning 17 touches into 92 yards.

Warren out-rushed Najee Harris 12-to-9, the first time this season that he handled more rushing attempts than Harris in a game.

We have been down this road before with Warren outplaying Harris and then the latter being pushed back into the front of this backfield, but Harris has struggled for an extended period here and has single-digit touches in back-to-back games.

Over his past seven games, Harris has rushed 102 times for 3.3 yards per carry, which ranks 34th out of 35 players.

Harris is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play.

Warren gets added life as a floor-based FLEX since he is more explosive and can be involved as a pass catcher, but we have not seen him garner goal-line touches in this matchup, which is one of the worst in the league for backfields.

The Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points per touch to running backs (0.73), allowing 3.7 YPC (2nd) while allowing the fewest rushing points (9.5) and the fewest receiving points per game (5.3) to backfields.

Running backs have scored 23.9% of the fantasy points allowed by the Chiefs, the lowest rate in the league.

Wide Receiver

Xavier Worthy: Worthy caught 7-of-11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown on Saturday.

We have been highlighting Worthy's higher floor through opportunities for several weeks, and he has found the end zone in each of the past two games to boost that production for fantasy.

Worthy has seen double-digit targets two weeks in a row.

He has 31 catches over his past six games (with at least 4 catches in every game) after having 20 receptions over his first nine games (with more than 3 catches in one game).

He has not had more than 76 total yards in any of these recent games, so he still needs the touchdown production to elevate him for fantasy, but Worthy is an upside WR3/FLEX option.

DeAndre Hopkins: Catching 4 passes for 37 yards on Saturday, Hopkins has now been held below 40 yards receiving in 6 of his 9 games since joining the Chiefs.

Since joining the team, Hopkins has been targeted on 23.9% of his routes (2nd on the team) but has only been on the field for 57.2% of the dropbacks, with no game reaching 70%.

That puts him in a spot where he has to be hyper-efficient on his targets or get into the end zone.

Hopkins is best used in Wednesday’s DFS slate over thrusting him into seasonal lineups outside of necessity, but this is a matchup where he can earn targets on the field.

Not only could Joey Porter Jr. miss this game, but Hopkins has been targeted on 28.9% of his routes run against man coverage compared to a 20% rate against zone coverage since joining the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh is 5th in the league in rate of man coverage (33.3%).

Marquise Brown: Brown got on the field Saturday for the first time this season.

He only ran 15 pass routes (33.3% of the dropbacks) but was targeted eight times (53.3% of his routes), catching 5 passes for 45 yards.

We discussed those expectations last week, anticipating that Brown would not play much, but that he would have play calls with him in mind when he was on the field. 

The Chiefs are positioning this offense for the postseason.

While Brown should continue to ramp up for the playoffs, he still is a thin start for fantasy outside of Wednesday's DFS slate.

George Pickens: After missing the past three games with a hamstring injury, Pickens has a real shot to play on Wednesday.

He was estimated as “limited” on Sunday’s initial walkthrough. 

There is some added volatility with Pickens returning from a long layoff from his hamstring.

He could have reduced snaps and is at the risk of aggravating that injury.

That said, if Pickens is available, he is an upside WR2.

Even if he has a reduced snap count, he should play in high-leverage situations.

Pickens has commanded 31.1% of the team's targets on the field this season with 49.3% of the air yards.

With Russell Wilson, he has averaged 2.48 yards per route run. 

Those are WR1 usage rates and efficiency; we only need the passing volume to line up.

Pickens has matchup appeal through the aggressive nature of the Kansas City defense.

He has been targeted on 32.7% of his routes against man coverage, with 3.28 yards per route run compared to a 22.2% rate and 2.18 yards per route against zone coverage.

The Chiefs are 7th in the league in rate of man coverage (32.3%).

Kansas City has done a great job taking away lead targets, however.

They allow the fewest yards per target (6.7) to WR1 options and are 6th in points allowed (13.1) to those receivers.

That includes some heavyweight fantasy wideouts in Nico Collins (7-60-0) and Ja’Marr Chase (4-35-0).

Tight End

Travis Kelce: Kelce has had a quiet close to the 2024 fantasy season.

Catching 5-of-7 targets for 30 yards on Saturday, he has not finished higher than TE12 in any of his past six games.

Over that span, Kelce averages 4.8 catches for 40 yards per game.

We have seen Kelce dip below a 20% target share in two of the past three games. 

Adding Marquise Brown is just another target in this offense to compete with, and Kelce needs more targets since he's down to a career-low 8.3 yards per reception and has only 2 touchdowns for the season.

Kelce still plays a low-bar fantasy position and has TE1 usage but has been more of a floor play.

Pittsburgh allows 6.5 yards per target to tight ends (7th), but they have allowed a 5.1% touchdown rate (23rd) to the position as a carrot for chasing a score.

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth snapped a 3-game scoring streak, which showcased how dependent he has been getting into the end zone for fantasy.

Catching 3 passes for 16 yards, Freiermuth has had more than 4 catches in only two games this season.

Freiermuth is a touchdown-dependent, matchup-based fantasy streamer and a DFS play.

Tight ends have 25.7% of the targets against the Chiefs (the 3rd-highest rate).

On those targets, Kansas City allows a league-high 8.9 yards per target.

Tight ends have scored 25% of the fantasy points allowed by the Chiefs, the highest share in the league.

More Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: