Texans vs. Ravens Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Texans and Ravens on Christmas Day.

Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson hits Championship weekend leading all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (25.2).

Coming off 20.5 points against a good Pittsburgh defense, Jackson has at least 20 fantasy points in 12-of-15 games this season.

He is a front-end fantasy option and a standout on the two-game DFS slate compared to where the field of that slate has operated this season.

He will be the most popular quarterback on that slate for good reason.

If you are fading Jackson on that slate or are facing him in your fantasy championship, you are hoping that Houston can slow him down enough to where he does not drag you down by himself.

Houston is a boom-or-bust pass defense.

They have allowed the lowest completion rate in the league (58.5%) and are 2nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5 Y/A).

But when they have allowed completions, they allow 11.4 yards per completion (22nd) with a 5.5% touchdown rate (30th).

Houston has not faced many mobile quarterbacks, but the ones they have faced have rushed for solid yardage.

They did just allow 33 yards and a touchdown to Patrick Mahomes, but Anthony Richardson (56 and 45 yards), Caleb Williams (44 yards), Josh Allen (54 yards), and Drake Maye (38 yards) have all added tangible rushing production in this matchup.

Houston also has injuries to Will Anderson (hand) and Jimmie Ward (foot) to monitor in a short week.

C.J. Stroud: Stroud scored the most fantasy points (16.1) on Saturday than he has had in a game since Week 6.

That was still only good for a mid-range QB2 week, which has been the story of Stroud’s season.

He has not logged a QB1 scoring week since Week 4. 

He completed 59% of his passes in Kansas City, lowering his season average to 63.2% (27th).

Stroud threw two more interceptions, boosting him to 11 after throwing 5 interceptions as a rookie.

He has been pressured on 38% of his dropbacks, which is 27th.

Only Williams (-99.2) has lost more EPA on sacks than Stroud (-81.6).

He has lost 1.0 EPA or more on 20.8% of his dropbacks, which is the highest rate in the league.

For comparison, Jackson is at 13.3%, which is 2nd.

With the loss of Tank Dell, this passing unit is down another weapon.

That all adds up for Stroud as a QB2 for fantasy.

The best thing we can say here is that on Wednesday's 2-game slate, this game environment is more appealing, being indoors and having a script that could end up pass-heavy.

The Baltimore pass defense is not a scary matchup, but they have been far better recently than its performance to open the season.

Over their past five games, the Ravens have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

They have not been overly challenged over that stretch with two games against the Steelers (one without George Pickens), one with the Giants, and one with the Chargers, but also a week against the Eagles in which they allowed 6.2 Y/A to Jalen Hurts. 

Even if we shade their recent improvements based on opponents, how far off is this Houston passing game from those opponents?

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Running Back

Derrick Henry: Henry ran hot on Saturday, turning 24 attempts into 162 yards against the Steelers.

He had 7 runs of 10 or more yards, the most in a game by a player this season.

Henry’s explosive run rate is now at 13.7%, his highest in a season since 2019.

He has run against a light box on 21.9% of his runs this season, his highest career rate.

As a byproduct of getting lighter boxes and more room for explosive runs, his 2.40 yards before contact per rush is the highest rate of his career.

He is still averaging 3.49 yards after contact per rush, which is 6th among running backs with 100 or more attempts.

The only minor blemish for Henry is that he has not scored a touchdown in four straight games after scoring at least once in the opening 11 games.

That said, even with that scoring drought, he still has 15 touchdowns on the year.

Henry is a locked-in fantasy option; the only question is how you handle him on the 2-game DFS slate.

Houston has allowed 3.97 YPC to running backs (5th) and is 8th in rushing points allowed (10.9 per game) to backfields.

They are 10th in yards allowed before contact (1.11) on those runs.

We have seen them allow over 100 yards rushing to Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Tony Pollard.

Joe Mixon: Mixon managed only 71 yards on 15 touches on Saturday.

He has been a top-20 scorer in only one of his past four games.

Since Week 10, Mixon has rushed for only 3.4 YPC, ahead of only Najee Harris (3.3 YPC) and Kenneth Walker (3.2 YPC). 

During that period, Mixon has averaged 0.96 yards before contact per rush, 27th among running backs.

To compound matters, his 2.45 yards after contact per rush over that span is 31st.

Mixon has faced a run of tough, good defenses, but that does not change here.

This is a tough spot to expect a lot of upside. 

Baltimore has allowed a league-low 3.5 YPC to running backs, with a 65.7% success rate against those runs (5th).

They have allowed a first down or a touchdown on 16.6% of backfield runs, the lowest rate in the league.

The one area where the Ravens have been vulnerable to backs is in the passing game.

They are 27th in receiving points allowed (10.8 per game) to running backs.

With Tank Dell now out, Mixon could be used more as a pass catcher.

The other element that keeps Mixon on the table as a volume-based RB2 in a tough matchup is that he still has control of this backfield.

Even entering last week with a potential ankle issue, Mixon handled 93.8% of the backfield touches.

He has 93.2% of the backfield touches over his past 9 games.

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins (TRUST): On Saturday, Collins collected 7-of-10 targets for 60 yards. 

Since returning in Week 11, Collins is averaging 2.26 yards per route (WR16) and 68.4 yards per game (WR24) after leading the league in yards per route (3.50) and yards per game (113.4) before his injury.

While stepping back from his blistering open to the season, Collins has still been targeted on 28.5% of his routes since returning, which is WR6.

With Tank Dell now sidelined, Collins is all this receiving room has left standing.

They will have to push this passing game through him to be successful, and we should anticipate a passing script based on the opponent.

Stroud is not playing as well as last season, but with Dell off the field in 2023, Collins was targeted on 30.2% of his routes with 3.32 yards per route run.

On a 97-route sample with Dell absent this season, Collins has been targeted on 36.1% of his routes with 3.41 yards per route run.

He has only run 40 routes with Dell and Stefon Diggs off the field, but he has been targeted at a 42.5% rate. 

The efficiency dips (2.17 yards per route) on that smaller sample, something that can happen when the defense is keyed in on slowing him down.

Baltimore is allowing the most fantasy points to WR1 targets (21.4 per game) with a league-high 8.9% touchdown rate to those targets.

Baltimore has played better pass defense in bulk lately but has still seen good outings from George Pickens (8-89-0), Ladd McConkey (6-83-0), and Malik Nabers (10-82-1) over that hot stretch. These players are not in the same class as Collins yet.

Zay Flowers: Flowers grabbed 5-of-8 targets for 100 yards Saturday against the Steelers.

A 49-yard catch late in the game boosted him to the century mark, his first 100-yard outing since Week 9.

Flowers' target shares have been 34.8%, 29.2%, 20%, and 38.1% over his past four games. However, he has not been able to top 8 targets in a game since Week 8 because Baltimore is 30th in the league in dropback rate (52.3%).

Flowers will need to be efficient as a volatile WR3.

Houston has been a volatile pass defense, allowing a handful of big plays.

They only allow 7.5 yards per target to WR1 options (4th) but have allowed those receivers a 6.8% touchdown rate (22nd).

Flowers has faced three other defenses in the top five in yards allowed to WR1 options with a lackluster hit rate: Kansas City (6-37-0), Philadelphia (3-74-0), and the Chargers (5-62-0).

If looking to land a big play, however, Houston has allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to wide receivers outside the red zone.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman only had one catch for 14 yards on Saturday, but that one reception was a touchdown.

That was Bateman’s eighth touchdown of the season and his fifth trip to the end zone over his past six games.

Bateman has had more than three receptions in just one of his past 8 games, with more than four receptions in one game this season, so he is still best left for chasing a touchdown on the Wednesday DFS slate.

As noted, if you are hunting for just one play to connect, the Texans have allowed their share of splash touchdowns to wide receivers.

Houston WRs: These ancillary wideouts for Houston are in play for the Wednesday DFS slate.

With Dell now lost for the season, Houston is thin at the wide receiver position.

Robert Woods was the immediate beneficiary of Dell’s absence on Saturday, running a route on 95% of the dropbacks without Dell and drawing a target on 21.1% of those routes.

Unfortunately, that only resulted in two catches for 15 yards.

John Metchie missed Week 16 with a shoulder injury but was estimated as limited in Sunday’s practice. 

If he is active, he is the better bet to take over Dell’s routes outside while Woods stays in his natural position. 

If Metchie misses another week, Xavier Hutchinson will be the WR3 in the offense.

The Ravens face 21.1 targets per game to wide receivers (the 4th-most), which should create a high-dropback game environment.

Tight End

Mark Andrews: Andrews keeps getting into the end zone.

He caught 4-of-6 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown a Saturday, his fourth game in a row with a touchdown.

Andrews has 9 touchdowns over his past 10 games.

34.1% of his fantasy points have come via touchdowns, the highest rate among all tight ends.

In his two games without a touchdown over that 10-game span, he was TE30 and TE26.

While touchdown-dependent, Andrews is heavily used near the end zone in the 3rd-highest-scoring offense in the NFL.

Andrews has 31% of the Baltimore red zone targets (TE5) and 25.8% of their end zone targets (TE9) over that 10-game run.

He also plays a weaker fantasy position to take on that dependency, unlike someone like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at wide receiver.

Andrews is still a really strong player outside of the touchdowns; he just is not playing as much as in previous seasons.

Since Week 5, Andrews is 4th among tight ends in yards per route (2.08) and 10th in target rate per route (21.4%).

Houston allows only 5.7 yards per target to tight ends (2nd) but a 5.9% touchdown rate (25th) to the position.

Dalton Schultz: Catching 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, Schultz has at least 5 receptions in three of his past five games.

With Tank Dell sidelined, Schultz is arguably as good (if not better) of a bet to earn targets than any of the backup receivers.

Schultz had 23.5% of the team targets with Dell off the field on Saturday.

Last year, he had 17.4% of the team targets (2nd on the team) on 239 routes without Dell on the field. 

That opportunity spike puts Schultz back in play as a back-end TE1 with added upside if he can get into the end zone.

Baltimore is 24th in receptions allowed to tight ends (5.5 per game), allowing 8.0 yards per target (25th), but is 12th in touchdown rate (3.6%) allowed to tight ends on those targets.

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