49ers vs. Lions Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the 49ers and Lions on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jared Goff: Goff is on a three-game QB1 scoring run, throwing 11 touchdowns and 1 interception over the past three weeks.

Goff has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games and six of his past seven.

He is a high-floor fantasy option capable of producing strong ceilings.

This is a strength-on-strength matchup where that overall ceiling could be challenged.

He is a fringe QB1 option this week.

For all the issues they have had this season as a team, the San Francisco defense has still been tough on opposing passers.

The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing points per game (11.2) and are fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.375).

They have allowed only three QB1 scoring weeks this season, and two of those were quarterbacks who posted 14.3 and 7.8 rushing points in those games.

Those two games are the only times they have allowed 20 fantasy points to a quarterback.

With Nick Bosa on the field, the 49ers have allowed a 59.3% completion rate, 6.2 Y/A, and a 3.7% touchdown rate, all top five in the league.

In this matchup in the playoffs last season, Goff was 25-of-41 (60.9%) for 273 yards and 1 touchdown, posting 14.9 fantasy points.

There is still implied production here if you are wavering on Goff due to the matchup alone.

Jayden Daniels‘ performance last week was a strong reminder that matchups are not the sole driver of an outcome.

I have been writing about player matchups for over a decade now in this series, and it is a good reminder to always start with what the player is capable of firsthand and then layer the matchups into the range of outcomes.

In both directions, positive and negative, you never want to lead with the matchup itself because, more often than not in the NFL, defensive stats are a collection of opposing offensive stats.

Yes, the 49ers are a tough defense that can impact Goff’s ceiling output in most iterations of this matchup, but points can still be scored.

The list of streaming options is thin this week.

Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold are realistic options gamers might have in a potential start/sit with Goff. I would consider them over Goff this week, but the implications here are still solid.

Detroit still has an implied 27-point team total here. They scored 31 points in San Francisco last postseason.

This offense is as much of a problem for the San Francisco defense as is that defense versus this offense.

One thing not discussed often last week was the loss of one of the Detroit running backs and how that also impacts Goff.

In the five-game sample without one of David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs, Goff has averaged 296.8 passing yards and 17.5 fantasy points per game.

Brock Purdy: It was not pretty, but Purdy still found his way to a QB11 (21.4 points) fantasy week on Sunday.

Purdy has scored 21.4 fantasy points per game over the four games surrounding the rain-soaked outing on Thursday Night Football versus the Rams and the snow game in Buffalo.

Purdy threw a season-high 40 passes on Sunday.

Their 72.1% dropback rate was a season-high.

The 49ers were forced to go pass-heavy not only because of the game script but also because of a battered backfield against a stout run defense.

San Francisco threw the ball 7% over expectations and 8% over expectations on first downs.

With or without Isaac Guerendo this week, I expect the 49ers to have to lean into the pass again, which should create plenty of counting stats for Purdy as a back-end QB1.

Detroit forces teams to pass at the third-highest rate this season by scoring points and stopping the run. Despite their injuries, they still shut down the Chicago run game last week, allowing 23 yards rushing to running backs.

But Detroit's injuries at the linebacker and defensive back levels have added up, and we have seen some big passing numbers against them lately.

They have allowed a top-six scoring quarterback in three of their past four games.

Over the past month, they have allowed a league-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt and a 6.0% touchdown rate (23rd).

That includes two games against Caleb Williams.

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Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs was set up for a spiked workload after Detroit lost David Montgomery, and he got it.

Gibbs handled a season-high 27 touches on Sunday, producing 154 yards and a touchdown.

He had a season-high 71.1% of the Detroit backfield touches, which was stronger before the Lions pulled significantly ahead late in the game.

Through three quarters on Sunday, Gibbs accounted for 25-of-32 (78.1%) of the backfield opportunities before Jermar Jefferson and Craig Reynolds got involved more in the fourth quarter.

Gibbs, with this type of workload, is front-end RB1 material.

As strong as the 49ers have been defensively against the pass, they have been volatile against backfields.

They have allowed 4.1 YPC to running backs (10th) but only have a 59.7% success rate against those runs (28th).

They are 20th in receiving points allowed (9.0 per game) to backs.

Running backs have scored 40.4% of the fantasy points allowed by San Francisco, the highest share in the league.

They have allowed over 100 total yards to De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs over their past five games with 6 touchdowns.

Running backs have scored 17 touchdowns against the 49ers, tied for the sixth-most in the league.

49ers RBs: Down to their fourth running back on the season and facing a strong Miami run defense, the 49ers did little of note on the ground Sunday.

Patrick Taylor rushed 8 times for 24 yards, catching one pass for a yard.

Kyle Juszczyk ran once for 6 yards.

Deebo Samuel ran 5 times for 25 yards.

Kyle Shanahan sounded optimistic that Isaac Guerendo would be available on Monday. He had the extended layoff from Thursday in Week 15 to this game to get past his hamstring injury.

We were unsure if Guerendo would play or be close to 100% last in Week 15, but he was on the field for 40 snaps (76%) and handled 100% of the backfield touches.

Guerendo only managed 75 yards on his 20 touches in a gross offensive game, but that workload was encouraging for gamers.

Hamstring injuries add some volatility to the equation, but Guerendo is in the RB2 conversation based on volume potential.

This is not a great matchup, however.

Even with their injuries, Detroit has played the run well outside of the Buffalo game.

Since Week 10, they have allowed fewer than 4.0 yards per carry to Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift (twice).

Even with the Buffalo game factored in, Detroit has allowed 4.0 YPC to running backs (6th) and 11.6 rushing points per game (10th) to backfields.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown grabbed 6-of-8 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, setting a new career-high with 11 touchdown catches.

St. Brown is a set-and-forget WR1 for seasonal leagues. How you handle him in single-game DFS is the only thing in play here.

The 49ers have allowed the fewest points to opposing WR1 targets (11.5 per game).

We just saw them limit Tyreek Hill to a 3-29-1 line.

Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson are the only WR1 targets to score against them this season.

St. Brown is in that company as far as fantasy WR1 targets are treated.

The 49ers have been excellent on the perimeter this season but softer on the interior, where St. Brown gets work.

He plays 57% of his snaps out wide and 42% in the slot.

The 49ers have allowed a league-low 6.2 yards per target to outside receivers but have allowed 9.1 yards per target to slot receivers (29th).

St. Brown caught 7-of-11 targets for 87 yards in this matchup last postseason.

Jauan Jennings: Jennings caught 4-of-6 targets for 51 yards on Sunday.

His 16.2% target share on Sunday was his lowest rate in a game since Week 5.

It was the first time he fell below a 26.9% target share in a game since Week 6.

Jennings has been inside of the top 40 scorers in one of his past five games played.

Elements and a backup quarterback impacted a few of those games, but last week was a true letdown.

Even with that, I would go back to Jennings as a WR2/WR3 here for the reasons laid out with Purdy.

We have seen true WR1 upside multiple times from Jennings this season.

I believe the 49ers will throw the ball a lot on Monday, and Detroit is still banged up on the back end.

Over the past four weeks, the Lions have allowed 188.8 yards per game to wide receivers, which is 29th in the league.

Wideouts have 5 touchdowns over that span (18th).

Jennings plays inside/out as well.

He has run 31% of his routes from the slot since returning in Week 10.

Detroit has allowed the most receptions (6.6) and yards (82.5) per game to slot receivers.

Jennings leads the 49ers in yards per route (2.21) against man coverage.

The Lions run the highest rate of man coverage (41.2%) in the league.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel broke out of a funk on Sunday, catching 7-of-9 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown, a vintage pinball-esque, bully-ball, after-the-catch touchdown created on his own.

It was Samuel’s first receiving touchdown since Week 6.

He also ran 5 times for 25 yards.

Samuel has run the ball 12 times over the past three weeks after the team lost Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason.

Samuel is still a boom-or-bust WR3 option, but as noted throughout, San Francisco is expected to throw the ball a lot here to keep pace with the Lions.

Even throughout his lackluster output, Samuel has gotten opportunities.

He is second on the team in targets (20.6%) since Jenning returned in Week 10.

Jameson Williams: Williams hauled in 5-of-7 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown in Chicago, punctuated by an 82-yard deep shot.

It had been a while since Williams and Goff connected on a long one, but that was the fourth touchdown this season of 50-plus yards for Williams, matching Ja’Marr Chase for the most in the league.

While the deep touchdown elevated his line, what we have loved about Williams is that has been consistently involved in the passing game outside of a few deep shots per week.

Williams had 21.9% of the team targets on Sunday, his fifth game hitting 20% of the opportunities over the past seven games.

He hit that number just twice before that stretch.

Giving a player like Williams consistent targets elevates his floor while he always has the spade of catching a long touchdown opening up his ceiling.

That makes him a weekly upside WR3.

That increased target volume can help him here because San Francisco has played the deep ball as well as anyone.

The 49ers have allowed 25.5% (13-of-51) of the targets to wide receivers 20 or more yards downfield to be completed, third lowest in the league.

Only 3-of-22 targets (13.6%) on throws 30 or more yards downfield to wide receivers have been connected versus San Francisco.

Tight End

George Kittle: Kittle collected 8-of-9 targets for 106 yards on Sunday.

The lone target he had that failed to connect was a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage when he was wide open in the end zone.

Kittle has been the best fantasy tight end per game this season.

He leads the position in yards per game (74.4) and yards per route run (2.61).

You are jamming him in lineups everywhere.

Detroit has been excellent against tight ends over the full season, allowing 6.1 yards per target to the position (fourth).

But they have picked up several injuries at the linebacker position and have been more vulnerable to the position of late.

Since losing Alex Anzalone, the Lions have allowed 11.2 yards per catch to tight ends (25th) and 7.2 yards per target (19th).

Tucker Kraft (3-41-1) and the Buffalo tight ends (6-95-0) have had success per target over that span while they allowed a touchdown to Cole Kmet on Sunday.

Detroit blitzes on 32% of dropbacks, which is fourth in the league.

Kittle leads the 49ers with a target on 28.4% of his routes against the blitz, posting 3.47 yards per route.

No tight end in the league has more yards than Kittle (330) against the blitz this season.

Sam LaPorta: LaPorta caught 4-of-7 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

While LaPorta has failed to match his preseason ADP, he has been more involved to close the season.

He has 5 touchdowns over his past eight games.

He has been a TE1 scorer in six of those weeks.

LaPorta has 20.2% of the team targets over that span with a target on 21.3% of his routes.

He had 9.8% of the team targets with a target on 11.3% of his routes prior.

LaPorta has worked his way back into TE1 status.

We always head into a matchup with the 49ers expecting tight ends to have to work hard for points.

San Francisco has been excellent against tight ends again this season, allowing 6.5 yards per target (7th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (8th) to the position.

LaPorta was hyper-active in this matchup a year ago, catching 9-of-13 targets for 97 yards.

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