Bears vs. Seahawks Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Bears and Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Caleb Williams: Williams was up and down again on Sunday, but the fantasy points were there for gamers.

He ended the week with 22.8 points, his third week as QB6 or better over his past five games.

His 8.3 yards per pass attempt were his highest in a game since Week 5.

Over the six weeks since Thomas Brown took over play calling duties, Williams has been the QB13 in points per game (19.3) and the QB14 in fantasy points per dropback (0.47).

He has three weeks as a front-end QB1 and another three in the back half of scoring.

As a boom-or-bust QB2, Chicago's approach to this game could determine the outcome of a potential upset and the results for fantasy gamers.

Since Brown took over play calling, Williams is second to last in the NFL in play-action rate (16.1%).

But on Sunday, the Bears used play action on 30% of his dropbacks, the highest rate under Brown and for the season.

Using play action, Williams was 9-of-12 (75%) for 109 yards (9.1 Y/A) and a touchdown.

Williams averages 8.5 Y/A using play action for the season, 16th in the league.

Without it, that drops to 6.1 Y/A, which falls to 29th in the league.

Seattle again had issues defending play action on Sunday, allowing Sam Darnold to connect on 8-of-11 passes for 104 yards (11.3 Y/A) and a touchdown.

When Darnold did not use play action, Seattle allowed a 58.3% completion rate and 5.1 Y/A.

On the season, Seattle has allowed a 62.8% completion rate (11th) and a league-low 5.9 Y/A on passes without play action.

However, they have allowed a 71.9% completion rate (26th) and 9.4 Y/A (29th) on passes using play action.

Geno Smith: Smith also had a good fantasy game on Sunday that did not unfold cleanly. 

He ended the afternoon completing 31-of-43 (72.1%) passes for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Scoring 21.4 fantasy points (QB10), it was his highest-scoring week since Week 9. He also snapped a five-game skid as the QB20 or lower.

No quarterback has been due more positive regression toward the mean than Smith this year, so it was nice to see him throw multiple touchdowns for just the third time this season.

Even with that spike, I still have Smith with 7.9 fewer passing touchdowns than expected, a wide gap as the lowest quarterback in that department.

Smith also threw a pair of interceptions.

17.4% of his dropbacks produced -1.0 EPA or worse, which was 23rd in the league last week.

You are still using Smith as a QB2 option, but this matchup is not something we are hiding from over the back half of the season.

Since their Week 7 bye, the Bears have allowed a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

They have allowed over 10.0 yards per pass attempt in four of their past six games.

If Smith wants to continue improving his touchdown production, Chicago has allowed a 6% touchdown rate over its past six games, 26th in the league.

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Running Back

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet is back in front of this backfield with Kenneth Walker ruled out.

Charbonnet only played 19 snaps on Sunday dealing with an oblique injury, handling 3 touches for 13 yards.

This week, he has already practiced in full and looks ready to roll as the lead back again.

Kenny McIntosh should be mixed in (he played in the game before Charbonnet last week, logging 27 snaps, 4 touches, and 29 yards). 

In the four games that Walker missed this season, Charbonnet had three RB1 scoring weeks.

With Charbonnet back in front and healthy, he is a fringe RB1 with upside here. 

Seattle is favored and should be in a good environment to give Charbonnet a high workload.

The Bears have been getting crushed by opposing backfields.

Over the past six weeks, they have allowed:

• 220 yards and a touchdown to the Detroit backfield
• 134 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Minnesota backfield
• 156 yards and 3 touchdowns to the San Francisco backup running backs
• 228 yards to this Detroit backfield that was without David Montgomery
• 147 yards and a touchdown to the Green Bay backs
• 154 yards and a touchdown to the Minnesota backs in Week 12

D’Andre Swift: Swift was not a part of the action on Sunday.

He managed only 20 yards rushing on 9 attempts, adding 3 catches for 33 yards.

Over his past eight games, Swift has averaged 69 total yards with no games reaching 90 yards from scrimmage.

He has one double-digit fantasy game over his past seven games played.

The good news is that he did have all but one of the backfield touches on Sunday, but with Roschon Johnson back, Swift may not have goal-line opportunities if and when the Bears ever have them on offense.

Swift is an RB3/FLEX at this time.

Seattle has played the run better since their Week 10 bye, allowing 4.1 YPC (16th) to running backs with a 67.5% success rate against those runs (3rd).

Only 20% of those runs have resulted in a first down or touchdown (9th).

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba kept up his strong second half of the season on Sunday, securing 8-of-12 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. 

Since Week 8, Smith-Njigba has 28.3% of the team targets (WR9), averaging 8.9 targets (WR12), 7.0 catches (WR5), and 96.3 yards (WR4) per game.

He has had at least 74 yards in seven straight games.

The biggest jolt for JSN’s fantasy stock has been getting more work downfield.

Before that hot stretch kicked off in Week 8, he averaged 7.7 air yards per target with 12.7% of his targets on intermediate routes and 10.9% on deep throws.

Over the past eight games, he has averaged 10.2 air yards per target with his intermediate target rate jumping to 23.9% and his deep target rate rising to 16.9%.

As a result, 50.7% of his targets have gone for a first down or touchdown over the past eight games (WR12) after a 32.7% rate before (WR66).

He is a solid floor-based WR2 with added upside in this matchup.

Playing 79% of his snaps from the slot gives Smith-Njigba added appeal here.

The Bears have allowed 9.0 yards per target (28th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (16th) to slot receivers.

DK Metcalf: Everyone on the coaching staff talked about getting Metcalf the ball more this past week.

He did have 7 targets but only 16.7% of the team targets.

Metcalf ended the day catching 3 passes for 57 yards, but he did manage to get into the end zone for the first time since Week 7.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 11, Metcalf has consistently worked behind Smith-Njigba, leaving him more as a fantasy WR3 than a WR2.

The Bears have been giving up their share of splash plays, keeping the lights on for Metcalf.

Chicago is up to allowing 9.1 yards per target to outside receivers (26th) with a 5.3% touchdown rate (16th).

The thing that has saved the Bears is that they face the fewest number of targets per game to wide receivers (16.1) since their run defense is so lackluster.

Seattle is a bad running team by nature, so they may be unable to take advantage, forcing more dropbacks.

Keenan Allen: Allen stayed hot on Sunday, catching 9-of-13 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Allen has been the Chicago wideout who has received the largest fantasy boost since the team reorganized its coaching staff.

Since Week 11, Allen has led the league in targets (62) and is fifth in targets per game (10.3). 

One thing to note about the spike in production for the Chicago wideouts is that they have faced Detroit and Minnesota in four of their six games since the changes started.

Those two teams face the highest number of wide receiver targets per game entering those matchups.

That target volume was inherently lighter when Chicago faced Green Bay and San Francisco.

In those games, Allen had 8 targets (25.8%) and 5 targets (20.8%).

Those are still solid rates to keep Allen in play as a WR3, but based on the matchup, we should anticipate reduced volume here.

Allen plays 52% of his snaps in the slot since the changes, where Seattle has been stronger.

The Seahawks allow 6.5 yards per target to slot receivers (2nd) compared to 8.5 yards per target to outside receivers (17th).

Allen is still getting enough snaps outside to dip into the latter end of the matchup.

DJ Moore: Moore collected 7-of-10 targets for 68 yards on Sunday.

Since the changes occurred on offense, Moore has found stability as a fantasy option. 

He has finished as a WR3 or better in six straight games.

Only two have been WR2 or better scoring weeks, but I prefer him as a WR3 for fantasy among the Chicago pass-catchers.

As noted with Allen, the raw target totals for the Chicago wideouts have been elevated by matchups, but Moore has some added matchup edges here.

For one, Moore is playing 74.6% of his snaps out wide, giving him more access to the softer part of the matchup.

Also, if Chicago is going to lean more toward the play-action splits noted above, Moore has been the primary beneficiary.

Since Thomas Brown took over, Moore has led the team with 35.3% of the team targets and 2.66 yards per route run when they have used play action.

Rome Odunze: Odunze pulled in 4-of-7 targets for 77 yards on Sunday.

That yardage total was his most in a game since Week 9.

Odunze is a better single-game DFS option and an all-or-nothing swing as a WR4/FLEX for seasonal gamers.

A team-high 22.1% of his targets have been on deep throws, which has resulted in a team-high 26.3% inaccurate target rate.

Caleb Williams‘ 40% inaccurate throw rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield is 30th in the league.

Seattle is in the middle of the pack in defending those passes to wide receivers, allowing a 35.4% completion rate (17th) but 6 touchdowns (24th).

Tight End

TNF Tight Ends: This game's tight ends are touchdown-or-bust options best used in single-game DFS.

Cole Kmet, Noah Fant, and A.J. Barner have combined for six TE1 scoring weeks on the season.

All but one of them has come in a week attached to getting into the end zone.

The Bears have been roughed up by tight ends over the past six weeks, facing Iowa’s finest of T.J. Hockenson (7-114-0 and 5-52-0), Sam LaPorta (3 touchdowns in two games), and George Kittle (6-151-0) if you want to keep that narrative going with Fant coming into town this week.

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