The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Jets and Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 14.75 | Implied Total | 21.75 | ||
| 15.4 | 30 | Points/Gm | 23.0 | 10 |
| 21.0 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 20.7 | 12 |
| 61.5 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 71.7 | 1 |
| 64.7 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.3 | 1 |
| 4.3 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 29 |
| 4.6 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 1 |
| 35.25% | 30 | Rush% | 43.31% | 13 |
| 64.75% | 3 | Pass% | 56.69% | 20 |
| 48.20% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 42.17% | 16 |
| 51.80% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 57.83% | 17 |
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Flacco: Flacco’s return to the NFL continued to be a success in Week 16.
He closed the week as QB3 (24.8 points) against the Texans.
Throwing for 368 yards, Flacco is just the second quarterback in Cleveland history to throw for 300 yards or more in three straight games, joining Josh McCown.
Throwing three touchdown passes, Flacco became the eighth Cleveland passer to throw multiple passing touchdowns in four consecutive games.
If he does so again on Thursday, he will tie the franchise record.
Flacco also attempted another 42 passes on Sunday. Attempting over 40 passes in all of his starts, Flacco is the first Cleveland quarterback to throw the football 40-plus times in four straight games.
Cleveland has now thrown the ball 6% above expectation with Flacco. That rate is 13% above expectation on 1st and 10 situations.
The one blemish is that Flacco has thrown an interception in all four games, with seven interceptions in total. His 4.0% interception rate over the past four weeks is only better than Sam Howell (5.6%) and Nick Mullens (7.3%) over that span.
As great of a story as Flacco’s return has been, this is still a spot where I would prefer to use him as a QB2 than lean on streaming him 1QB formats.
The Jets can still play a little defense.
New York has allowed just three QB1 scorers all season long. Just one of those has come since Week 6.
The Jets are allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt (third in the league) and a league-low 9.8 passing points per game.
Trevor Siemian: Given the short week, Zach Wilson was not able to clear concussion protocol, and Siemian will make another start this week.
Siemian is only an option for gamers who are completely barren at the position in 2QB leagues.
Siemian was QB25 (10.5 points) against the lowly Commanders at home. He only threw for 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
The Browns have been dominant at home this season.
In Cleveland, opposing passers have completed a league-low 52.7% of their passes for just 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The next closest Y/A allowed by a pass defense at home this season is 5.7 Y/A.
Cleveland is also second in the NFL in terms of pressure rate (44.0% of dropbacks).
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Running Back
Breece Hall: Gamers that made their semi-finals with Hall on their rosters were rewarded with a fantasy explosion.
Hall rushed 20 times for 95 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground.
While that would have sufficed for a spike week on its own, Hall also caught 12-of-16 targets for 96 yards through the air.
Hall took advantage of a Washington defense that has been victimized all season long.
Thursday night will be a different task.
Cleveland is fourth in the league in success rate against running back runs (67.6%), a number that climbs to 75.3% at home.
In Cleveland, the Browns have allowed 0.01 yards before contact per carry to backfields, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 1.25 yards before contact per carry to running backs.
If looking for Hall to turn in a big run, Cleveland is 32nd in yards allowed after contact per run to backs (3.58 yards).
Hall was just the RB61 two weeks ago when facing Miami on the road, so he comes with plenty of volatility if chasing last week’s game.
Gamers may not be in a spot to outright sit Hall after he got them to the fantasy finals, but he is a boom-or-bust FLEX with some solid signal to the bust side.
Hall does have an added out as a pass catcher.
He is now second in the NFL among running backs in receiving yards (537) and tied with Alvin Kamara for the most targets (84) at the position.
Only Christian McCaffrey (18.1%) has a higher target share than Hall (16.8%).
Cleveland has been good against RBs out of the backfield, allowing 7.6 receiving points per game to the position, ninth in the league.
Browns RBs: This backfield remains a two-way split in which both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are low-ceiling FLEX plays dependent on reaching the end zone.
Both of these backs got into the paint last weekend, and yet neither made a major fantasy impact on their own.
Ford played 35 snaps (42.7%), turning 16 touches into 23 yards and his seventh touchdown of the season.
Hunt played 31 snaps (37.8%), turning nine touches into 16 yards and his eighth touchdown of the season.
Ford is averaging 16.0 points per game (and the average RB16) in his weeks with a touchdown. He is averaging 9.3 points per game (and RB32) in his weeks without a score.
Hunt is even more touchdown-based.
He is averaging just 11.9 points per game in his weeks with a touchdown (RB22) compared to 4.1 per game without a score (RB51).
The last time Hunt reached 50 scrimmage yards in a game was Week 8.
The Jets can stop the run, but they face a ton of rushing attempts due to game script and have allowed a handful of touchdowns to backs.
The Jets are facing 25.6 rushing attempts per game (30th) from backs and have allowed 11 touchdowns on the ground to RBs (23rd) including five over their past two games.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson: Wilson received a season-high 15 targets on Sunday, doing what he could with the volume, catching nine passes for 76 yards.
Wilson now has received 30.5% of the New York targets this season, third in the NFL.
Unfortunately, his attachment to anemic quarterback play has held him back from fantasy points and limited his ceiling potential.
Wilson has 25 targets that have been deemed inaccurate via his passers, second behind Davante Adams (26).
Wilson has one WR1 scoring week and has gone over 100 yards one time this season.
This is a spot to proceed with caution if anticipating a spike week.
Cleveland is second in the NFL in points allowed per game to opposing WR1s (11.7).
The highest an opposing wide receiver has finished in Cleveland this season was WR33, which was Brandon Aiyuk in Week 6.
Cleveland is playing man coverage on 37.9% of passing plays (fifth in the league).
Wilson has a 33.9% target share against man coverage but also just one touchdown and a 22.5% inaccurate target rate against man coverage due to his quarterback play.
Against zone coverage, Wilson has a 14.5% inaccurate target rate.
Wilson is averaging 1.34 yards per route run against man coverage as opposed to 1.74 yards per route run against zone coverage.
Browns WRs: With Amari Cooper ruled out, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman get a boost.
On the small sample of plays with Cooper off the field this season, Moore has been targeted on a team-high 28.4% of his routes.
After Cooper left Week 13 with a head injury, Moore was targeted by Joe Flacco 11 times on just 25 pass routes.
In his revenge game against the Jets, Moore is a FLEX option, but do proceed with some caution based on the matchup.
Tillman was only targeted twice in that game, but he did run 29 routes (93.5% of the team dropbacks) to give him a pulse in single-game DFS.
New York is allowing the fewest points per game (22.1) to opposing wide receivers.
They have allowed just four touchdown to wide receivers all season long, surrendering 7.0 yards per target (fifth) to wide receivers.
Wideouts have scored 37.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Jets, the lowest rate in the league.
Tight End
David Njoku: Njoku stayed hot on Sunday, collecting 6-of-9 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown.
It was his third straight game with a touchdown and third consecutive top-three-scoring week among tight ends.
Njoku has now been a TE1 scorer in 9 of his past 10 games.
Over those 10 weeks, Njoku is third among all tight ends with 24.7% of the team targets.
He is second among tight ends with a target on 27.4% of his routes run.
He is tied with Sam LaPorta in catching six touchdowns over that period.
This should be a matchup for Njoku to stay busy as a TE1.
Tight ends have 23.75% of the targets against the Jets (seventh highest) since they are so good at defending the outside.
New York has allowed 16 touchdown passes through the air (third), and eight of those have gone to tight ends.
Tyler Conklin: Catching 4-of-7 targets for 36 yards on Sunday, Conklin has not logged a TE1 scoring week since Week 10.
He is still without a touchdown this season.
Cleveland is allowing 6.3 yards per target (sixth) to tight ends, but they have allowed an 8.1% touchdown rate (31st) on those targets if you are chasing that first touchdown of the season.
