The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Saints and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 22.1 | 13 | Points/Gm | 21.7 | 17 |
| 19.8 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 20.1 | 11 |
| 65.7 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 20 |
| 62.9 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 17 |
| 5.1 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 20 |
| 5.1 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 26 |
| 41.62% | 19 | Rush% | 42.34% | 16 |
| 58.38% | 14 | Pass% | 57.66% | 17 |
| 44.70% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 37.25% | 5 |
| 55.30% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 62.75% | 28 |
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield’s redemption arc continued on Sunday, connecting on 26-of-35 (74.3%) passes for 282 yards (8.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns against the Jaguars.
Mayfield has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his past nine games.
He is pacing for a career-high in completion percentage (64.3%) while his 5.2% touchdown rate is his highest in a season since 2020.
Mayfield’s weeks as a 1QB streamer have been easier to diagnose over the back half of the season.
This is a tougher assignment on the surface and one where we would prefer to use him as a floor-based QB2. But things are not dire if you have been relying on Mayfield as a steady option in 2QB formats.
The Saints have allowed 11.5 passing points per game, sixth in the league.
That said, they have allowed back-to-back lower-end QB1 scoring weeks to both Matthew Stafford (20.7 points) and Jared Goff (16.3 points) surrounding facing Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, and Desmond Ridder over their past five games.
Mayfield may be a rung below Stafford and Goff for fantasy as reliable QB1 options, but we did see him throw three touchdowns against the Saints on the road back in Week 4. That is the only game this season in which New Orleans has allowed more than two touchdown passes.
Mayfield was the QB8 (22.9 points) in that game, adding 31 rushing yards.
That came against a healthier New Orleans defense. Even if we shave a passing touchdown and the rushing yardage, Mayfield is a viable QB2.
Derek Carr: Carr has peeled off back-to-back top-10 scoring weeks.
Last week’s QB2 (24.9 points) outing was fueled by a jailbreak game script against the Rams.
In the fourth quarter on Thursday, Carr was 12-of-12 for 103 yards with two touchdowns through the air.
Carr was a disaster when these teams played in Week 4.
He threw for just 127 yards and a season-low 3.4 yards per pass attempt.
Carr averaged just 0.5 air yards per completed pass in that game, his fewest in a game this season.
60.9% of his completed passes in that game were behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate for a quarterback in a game this season.
On throws past the line of scrimmage in that game, Carr was 9-of-22 passing.
If that does not have you excited to stream Carr, then what will?
That Week 4 game also came after Carr had head and shoulder injuries the week prior. He did not practice that week and still suited up.
This Tampa Bay defense is still one we are targeting for streaming.
They are allowing 15.4 passing points per game, 27th in the league.
The Bucs have allowed 7.6 Y/A (26th) and 11.6 yards per completed pass (27th).
Tampa Bay is blitzing 39.5% of the time (third in the league).
We highlighted it a couple of weeks ago, but Carr has been excellent against the blitz this season.
When blitzed, Carr is completing 67.1% of his passes (sixth in the league) for 7.7 Y/A (sixth) with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. His 100.5 rating when blitzed is ninth in the league.
The Bucs have allowed six QB1 scoring weeks since their Week 5 bye, keeping the door open for Carr as a potential streaming option in 1QB leagues. He is a preferred higher-upside QB2 where you can get away with it.
Running Back
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