Week 9 NFL Player Props: Best Prop Bets & Predictions

NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 9 Picks

• Malik Nabers Most Receiving Yards, Giants vs. Eagles (+105)
• Greg Dulcich Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Puka Nacua Under 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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NFL Week 9 Best Prop Bet: Malik Nabers Most Receiving Yards, Giants vs. Eagles (+105)

Malik Nabers‘ primary competition for the most receiving yards in the NFC East matchup against the Eagles might be his teammate Isaiah Likely.

The spiraling Eagles are turning to Joe Milton at quarterback, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are ruled out.

Nabers opened the year with just 69, 1, and 26 receiving yards in his first three games.

Since then, it's been a fireworks show.

In Nabers' last four games, he's tallied a 31.6% target share, 31% target rate per route, 36.8% first-read rate, 41.8% air yard share, 9.0 receptions per game, 127.3 receiving yards per game, and 3.18 Y/RR.

Big Blue's No. 1 wideout has cleared 110 receiving yards in four straight games, including barbecuing the Texans for 111 yards in J.J. McCarthy‘s first start of the year in Week 7.

On 74 plays with McCarthy, Nabers has erupted for a 32.6% target share, 30% target rate per route, and 4.48 Y/RR.

Getting plus money on Nabers to lead the game in receiving yards is exciting and a more compelling bet than his over for receiving yards.

NFL Week 9 Best Prop Bet: Greg Dulcich Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Greg Dulcich has a 67.6% snap share and 58.8% route participation rate this year, which are rock-solid for a pass-catching specialist tight end.

Among six Dolphins with at least 50 routes this year, Dulcich is third in target rate per route (20%) and second in yards per route run (1.92).

He's averaged 3.1 receptions per game and 36.6 receiving yards per game.

While his receiving yardage average is slightly under his line for this week, he's cleared 37.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games since Miami's Week 6 bye.

Furthermore, after getting off to a slow start, Dulcich has produced 3.6 receptions per game, 44.2 receiving yards per game, and 2.28 Y/RR on a 23% target rate per route in his last five games, eclipsing 37.5 receiving yards three times.

Dulcich has a tantalizing matchup this week.

The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards per game (97.7) and the sixth-most yards per target (8.88) to tight ends this season.

Detroit has allowed eight tight ends to surpass 37.5 receiving yards in seven games this season, and the Panthers are their only opponent that didn't have at least one tight end clear that threshold.

Kerby Joseph remains out, and Jack Campbell is also out.

Dulcich can take advantage of this cushy matchup and clear the low bar of 37.5 receiving yards this week.

NFL Week 9 Best Prop Bet: Puka Nacua Under 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In two games without Davante Adams, the Rams rank tied for 14th in pass rate over expected (-1.3% PROE).

Meanwhile, without Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw last week, both on injured reserve, the Commanders faced a -2.2% PROE.

As Rich pointed out in The Worksheet, the Commanders have held opposing running backs to only 3.1 yards per carry on 31 runs without Payne and Kinlaw on the field.

They might stay stout against the run without the defensive tackle duo, but they could show chinks in the armor over a larger sample, especially against a talented running game like Los Angeles'.

Nacua has been a target hog without Adams.

In those two games, he had a 40.7% target share and a 43% target rate per route.

However, with Matthew Stafford dealing with elbow soreness, Nacua has had an unserious 3.68-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

As a result, even on a massive workload, Nacua has logged 148 receiving yards, 6.73 yards per target, and 7.79 yards per reception since Week 7.

He had 8 receptions for 68 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 7 and 11 for 80 against the Chargers in Week 8.

The Rams are also favorites, which could lead to a positive game script and clock-chewing if things go according to betting expectations.

Unless Stafford cuts it loose deeper this week, Nacua will likely pile up receptions but still fall short of 92.5 receiving yards.