Week 10 NFL Player Props: Best Prop Bets & Predictions

NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 10 Picks

• Tyler Shough Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-125)
• Chris Olave Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
• Christian Watson Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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NFL Week 10 Best Prop Bet: Tyler Shough Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-125)

Tyler Shough is having a rock-solid sophomore season that looks even better if you remove his matchup with the Vikings.

Minnesota, as they've done to many teams this year, stifled New Orleans.

Shough completed just 16 of 25 pass attempts for 96 yards.

Teams have also chosen to avoid passing against them.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Vikings rank 32nd in pass rate over expected (PROE) faced (-5.9%) this season.

The Saints had a -9.0% PROE against Minnesota in Week 5.

If you toss out Week 5, the Saints have a 2.8% PROE this year, which would rank ninth over the full season.

Additionally, if you remove that game from Shough's ledger, he's averaged 270.0 passing yards per game, with a median of 265.

He went over 248.5 passing yards in five of six games this season that weren't against the Vikings.

The Panthers should also be a favorable matchup for Shough.

Carolina has allowed 221.8 passing yards per game to quarterbacks this season, but that mark is skewed by a game against Atlanta's unserious combo of Cooper Rush and Jack Strand and another against Baker Mayfield.

Baker had a mitt on his throwing hand in that game, and the Buccaneers did whatever they wanted on the ground.

In Carolina's other six games, they surrendered 260.8 passing yards per game to signal-callers, allowing Caleb Williams (269 passing yards), Jared Goff (412 passing yards), and Jordan Love (288 passing yards) to eclipse 248.5 passing yards against them.

The quarterbacks who fell short of that threshold in those six games were Deshaun Watson, Tanner McKee, and Bo Nix, which no one would confuse with a murderer's row of gunslingers.

Shough should find success through the air in a probable NFC South shootout.

NFL Week 10 Best Prop Bet: Chris Olave Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Olave's receiving yardage over positively correlates with Shough's passing yardage over.

New Orleans' top pass-catching weapon is having a sensational season.

Among 74 wide receivers with at least 150 routes this year, Olave ranks fifth in route participation rate (88.3%), eighth in target share (26.3%), tied for 10th in target rate per route (27%), sixth in first-read rate (36.0%), second in air yard share (46.6%), fifth in receptions per game (7.0), sixth in receiving yards per game (91.8), and 13th in yards per route run (2.43 Y/RR).

Like Shough, Olave's numbers are even more impressive if you give him a pass for the Vikings game, when he had at least a respectable 46 receiving yards.

Still, Olave jumps to 98.3 receiving yards per game in non-Vikings games this season.

Olave has gone over 70.5 receiving yards in five of eight games this season, with a median of 92.

He could also benefit from Carolina's coverage tendencies if they stick from Todd Wash‘s first game as Carolina's interim defensive coordinator in Week 9.

Last week, the Panthers played zone 86.8% of the time and single-high 71.1% of the time.

Olave has a 28% target rate per route and 2.58 Y/RR on 209 routes against zone and a 33% target rate per route and 3.16 Y/RR on 129 routes against single-high coverage.

Fortunately, even if Wash flips his coverage tendencies from Week 9 on its head, Olave has a 26% target rate per route and 2.31 Y/RR on 84 routes against man and a 23% target rate per route and 1.89 Y/RR on 173 routes against two-high coverage.

Olave should feast on the Panthers.

NFL Week 10 Best Prop Bet: Christian Watson Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Watson is balling out this year, taking advantage of the Packers whittling their wide receiver room down from its traditional large rotation.

He has a 76.1% route participation rate this year, and his underlying data is exceptional: 20.8% target share, 26% target rate per route, 25.2% first-read rate, and 34.3% air yard share.

Watson isn't stacking up theoretical production, either.

Instead, he's recorded 5.4 receptions per game, 97.7 receiving yards per game, and 3.21 Y/RR in nine games.

The speedy wideout has cleared 71.5 receiving yards in five games this year, besting 110 in back-to-back games and torching the Vikings for 147 in Week 1.

The Vikings have a juggernaut defense.

Nevertheless, Watson got the better of them in Week 1, and their defensive tendencies are optimal for Watson's receiving outlook this week.

Minnesota leads the league in zone coverage rate (86.0%) and blitz rate (71.0%) and ranks fourth in two-high coverage rate (64.3%) this year.

That's all dreamy for Watson.

He has a 29% target rate per route and 3.91 Y/RR on 199 routes against zone, a 30% target rate per route and 3.80 Y/RR on 99 routes against the blitz, and a 26% target rate per route and 3.76 Y/RR on 140 routes against two-high coverage this season.

Watson is tailor-made to give the Vikings' defense trouble and should surpass 71.5 receiving yards against them for the second time this season.