Ole Miss vs. Louisville, Current Betting Odds:
- Ole Miss -7 points
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Ole Miss vs. Louisville Best Bet Prediction:
- Louisville +7 points
Ole Miss has the edge at quarterback, but the rest of these rosters look too similar for a spread this large, so let's take Louisville against the spread.
When Louisville Is on Offense
Louisville runs a pass-heavy offense under Jeff Brohm and his coordinator Brian Brohm.
According to Campus2Canton, the Cardinals threw the ball at a rate 9.1% above expected based on situational data last season.
This version of the Brohm offense is expected to look a little different, however, due to the addition of Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback, a transfer from Ohio State.
Though Kienholz didn't see the field often at Ohio State, the Buckeyes did occasionally take advantage of his running ability.
Brian Brohm had this to say about Kienholz during the offseason: “He's athletic. I envision us using his legs, using his athleticism in some of the run game, read game, read option game.”
Louisville's recent transfer quarterbacks (Miller Moss and Tyler Shough) rarely took off running and certainly didn't have designed runs as part of the game plan, so this will be a new wrinkle in the Brohm offense.
This is potentially an area where Louisville can gain an edge on Ole Miss.
Pete Golding‘s defense ranked 77th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks last season and will likely be starting incoming transfers at each linebacker and safety position, potentially creating some communication issues in their first game.
Brohm's mention of the read-option is particularly interesting because it was an area Ole Miss struggled mightily in 2025.
Golding's defense ranked 124th in yards per attempt allowed on read-option plays (6.6 yards per attempt).
That said, Louisville's offense only used read-option 4.7% of the time last year, the nation's second-lowest rate.
How much will the Brohms be willing to alter their typical scheme to accommodate Kienholz?
In terms of the traditional rushing attack, Louisville should have success moving the ball with Isaac Brown.
The Cardinals were 8-1 in games in which Brown played last season, including an upset win over Miami in which Brown ran for 113 yards on just 15 carries.
The Brohm offense tends to use spread formations and misdirection to create plenty of running lanes for its ball carriers, which should give the Cardinals an edge based on these 2025 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Louisville: ranked 10th in yards before contact gained
- Ole Miss: ranked 116th in yards before contact allowed
Louisville only returns one starter on the offensive line and lost offensive line coach Richard Owens to Alabama, so there is the potential for some regression in the play up front.
Offensive line play will also be critical to Louisville's success in the passing game, and the Cardinals will be without starting left tackle Anwar O'neal, a transfer from Delaware, due to injury.
Louisville quarterbacks took traditional dropbacks 58% of the time last year, which tends to invite more pressure.
Based on last year's opponent-adjusted data, this would have been a good matchup in the trenches:
- Louisville: ranked 31st in pressure rate allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 19th in pressure rate generated
Ole Miss lost leading pass-rusher Princewill Umanmielen to LSU, but each of its top three leaders in quarterback pressures behind Umanmielen returned (Kam Franklin, Will Echoles, Suntarine Perkins).
When Ole Miss doesn't get pressure, however, the Cardinals should have success with their underneath passing attack.
Louisville threw the ball five or fewer yards downfield at the nation's 10th-highest rate last year (56% of attempts).
That scheme tends to put pressure on the defense to make plays in space, something which Golding's defense did not do well last season.
Ole Miss ranked 111th in yards after catch allowed on throws at that depth, per Sports Info Solutions.
Maybe Ole Miss' overhauled defense will improve in that area, but with transfers taking over the linebacker and safety positions, there is likely to be some growing pains in terms of on-field communication.
When Ole Miss Is on Offense
Trinidad Chambliss is back for one final season (unless Mississippi courts get involved again), but he'll be working with an overhauled offensive coaching staff.
Lane Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. are gone, but the offense probably won't undergo any drastic changes.
New coordinator John David Baker spent the last two seasons in the same role at East Carolina but previously spent three years coaching under Kiffin, including two as Weis' co-coordinator.
East Carolina ranked 24th in the nation in scoring offense under Baker last season, though he ran more of a balanced attack than we're used to seeing from Kiffin.
Check out the expected pass rate for each program over the past two seasons based on situational data from Campus2Canton:
- East Carolina: 1.1% above expected
- Ole Miss: 6.3% above expected
Even if Ole Miss is more balanced than in years past, the passing attack should look similar.
Take a look at the rate at which each team used quick dropbacks (RPOs and zero/one-step dropbacks):
- Ole Miss: 54%, ranked 7th
- East Carolina: 48%, ranked 18th
The only slight difference might be an increased use of RPOs, which might explain why East Carolina ran the ball more often than Kiffin's squad.
Although Ole Miss might miss Kiffin and Weis in certain areas, increased usage of RPOs might actually help the offense.
Ole Miss ranked fourth in the nation in yards per play off RPOs (7.3) in 2025.
That said, the Louisville defense will be prepared for those plays, as the Cardinals allowed just 4.2 yards per play against RPOs (ranked 13th), per Sports Info Solutions.
Expect Louisville to remain strong in that area due to their experience at linebacker.
Stanquan Clark, a starter in 2024 who was injured after just two games last year, returns to a key role at linebacker. The same is true for starter T.J. Capers.
Antonio Watts, who lines up at the star position (hybrid safety/linebacker), is also back for his third year as the starter.
Experience at these positions is critical to stopping an RPO offense with an athletic quarterback like Chambliss.
An area where Ole Miss might have an edge in the passing game is the downfield attack.
Outside the red zone, Ole Miss threw 15 or more yards downfield 26% of the time last year, the 29th-highest rate.
Louisville allowed a 41% completion rate at that depth, ranked 68th, and is replacing Jabari Mack, an experienced cornerback who played well after transferring from Jacksonville State last year.
There's a chance Louisville's defense also gives Ole Miss problems in the run game due to its unique approach, though there is some unknown about the Cardinals' scheme due to the change at defensive coordinator.
Coordinator Ron English stepped down after last season 一 he wasn't fired; he's taking the year off to watch his son play at Navy 一 and two of his assistants (Steve Ellis and Mark Ivey) were named as his replacements.
Assuming they maintain the same approach, expect Louisville to stack the box at a high rate even when Ole Miss tries to spread them out.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Louisville stacked the box at a rate 42% above expected.
That could cause problems for Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy, who is explosive but has struggled to consistently fight through traffic.
Check out Lacy's production by box type last season:
- Stacked box: 4.3 yards per attempt, ranked 84th (out of 127)
- Light box: 5.8 yards per attempt, ranked 48th
Louisville demonstrated its ability to shut down a quality rushing attack last year when it held Miami running backs to just 42 yards on 16 carries (2.6 yards per attempt).
If the Cardinals can do the same to Lacy, Ole Miss will have a hard time matching its usual offensive output.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Louisville Best Bets
This is a surprisingly large spread for what appears to be closer to a toss-up type of game, so let's take the points and play Louisville against the spread.
The risk is not knowing what Kienholz will look like in his first start, but there's enough reason to trust Louisville's rushing attack and defense to think the Cardinals are capable of covering this spread and maybe even winning outright.
