Betting the Under for Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop Bet

We break down why you should take the UNDER on Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop: why you should bet the under

Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Saquon Barkley:

900.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
900.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook

When healthy, Saquon Barkley can be electric with the ball in his hands, but his track record indicates the under on his rushing total is a smart bet this season.

History of injuries
Playing in Brian Daboll’s more pass-heavy offense
Barkley is an inefficient runner, even in favorable situations

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

Barkley has suited up for 28 of 49 games over the past three seasons. That history of injuries appears to be factored into the available numbers already, but it’s still one of the primary reasons the under is the only option when considering his prop bets.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

In his four seasons in Buffalo, Brian Daboll’s offense did not produce a 900-yard rusher and no one was given more than 200 carries.

Assuming Barkley maintains his career average of 4.5 yards per attempt, he would need 201 carries to hit the over. If he repeated last year’s 3.7 yards per carry, he would need 244 carries.

Daboll wants to throw the ball 一 and may have even more incentive to do so in New York than last year in Buffalo, while likely playing from behind at a higher rate.

#3 Reason to Bet the Under

There’s no doubting Barkley’s big-play ability, but he’s also one of the most indecisive runners in the league. His tendency to hunt for the big play, rather than take what’s given, creates negative plays.

When running into a box with six or fewer defenders (typically a favorable situation), Barkley has been stuffed for zero or negative yards on 25.6% of his carries the past two seasons, the league’s highest rate, per TruMedia.

Over that same time span, every other Giants running back has combined for a rate of just 10.9%.

Knowing Daboll is already inclined to lean on the passing game more than most, he may grow tired of Barkley’s inefficient running style and further dial back the run game.

Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean Barkley won’t play a significant role in the offense 一 expect a career year in the pass game 一 but his run-game usage is likely to suffer.

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