It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

Up first: which wide receivers/tight ends are likely to go UNDER their receiving lines?

Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the under

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Tyler Lockett:

Tyler Lockett is without Russell Wilson for the first time in his career, and may struggle to hit the over on these receiving yards props. 

  • Significant downgrade at quarterback
  • Yardage produced on deep ball should drop off significantly 

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

Lockett has gone over these yardage totals in each of the last four seasons, but losing Wilson will limit the Seattle Seahawks passing game. 

Obviously, Geno Smith and Drew Lock represent a downgrade in a number of ways, but their performance on the deep ball stands out as an area likely to hurt Lockett the most.

Wilson liked to take shots downfield, and completed 45% of his throws at 15 or more yards downfield over the course of his time in Seattle. Smith has a career completion percentage of 39% at that distance; Lock’s career rate is 36%. 

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

The deep ball downgrade will hurt both Lockett and DK Metcalf, but could have a more significant impact on Lockett relative to his 2021 performance. 

Lockett led the league in yards gained on targets 20 or more yards downfield (715 yards), over 100 more yards than any other receiver, according to TruMedia. Those plays accounted for 26% of his receptions and 61% of his yardage. 

Knowing deep ball production is volatile, and he’ll have a significant downgrade at quarterback, it will be nearly impossible to replicate that production. 

» Bet the Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Under 

Stefon Diggs’s receptions prop bet: why you should bet the under

Current Receptions Over/Under for Stefon Diggs:

The loss of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was significant for Buffalo, and it could potentially limit the usage of Stefon Diggs enough to keep him under his receptions prop.

  • Offense may be more conservative this season
  • Ease of schedule may limit need for passing

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

Daboll was the driving force behind the growth of Buffalo’s offense over the past few seasons. With first-time play-caller Ken Dorsey taking over for Daboll, head coach Sean McDermott is likely to have more influence in the game flow 一 which probably means a more conservative, run-oriented attack. 

Daboll was an experienced playcaller 一 Buffalo was his fifth stop as an offensive coordinator at the college and pro levels 一 and he likely had more influence than McDermott will allow Dorsey.

No quarterback was on the field for more plays with a double-digit lead than Josh Allen last season (297) and he dropped back to pass on 49% of those plays. That allowed both Allen and Diggs opportunities to pad their stats they may not be afforded this year. 

Don’t expect Buffalo to remain as aggressive and pass-heavy as the past two seasons without Daboll, which means all Bills pass-catchers could see a slight dropoff in production. 

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

In addition to a more conservative offense, the Bills also may not need to throw the ball as often.

Entering the year, Buffalo does not have a game on the schedule in which it is an underdog. The Bills also have seven games in which they are favored by a touchdown or more. 

Diggs needed a full 17 games to tally 103 receptions a season ago. So if the Bills’ offense under Dorsey is slightly more run-heavy, it will be difficult to replicate last year’s numbers 一 even though we fully expect him to perform at his usual high level. 

» Bet the Stefon Diggs Receptions Under 

Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the under

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Albert Okwuegbunam:

  • 525.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook

The injury to Tim Patrick boosted expectations for Albert Okwuegbunam, but these props are probably too optimistic for his production. 

  • Russell Wilson’s limited track record with tight ends 
  • Greg Dulcich could challenge for his job

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

Russell Wilson clearly provides Okwuegbunam with an upgrade at quarterback, but Wilson does not have a track record of leaning on his tight ends. In 10 seasons in the league, only twice has Wilson helped a tight end top 525 receiving yards (Jimmy Graham in 2015, 2016).

Okwuegbunam is clearly behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in the pecking order for targets, and K.J. Hamler should be in the mix as well. 

With too many other options at wide receiver, there’s no reason to have confidence Okwuegbunam will regularly be featured in the passing game. 

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

Although Okwuegbunam will start the season as Denver’s tight end, rookie Greg Dulcich is rehabbing from a hamstring injury and will compete for the job when he returns. 

Although Okwuegbunam is a bigger weapon, Dulcich is probably the more dynamic athlete with a more significant track record of production as a pass catcher. 

Dulcich averaged 17.6 yards per reception during his career at UCLA 一 Okwuegbunam averaged 12.1 in college, and just 10.3 during his first two seasons in the NFL. 

Even if Dulcich doesn’t supplant Okwuegbunam as the starter, by bringing a slightly different skill set to the table, he’s a serious threat to take opportunities away.

» Bet the Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving Yards Under 

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