The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 2 matchup between the Texans and Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 2 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 26.25 | ||
| 24.0 | 15 | Points/Gm | 29.0 | 7 |
| 17.0 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 27.0 | 21 |
| 53.0 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 76.0 | 1 |
| 61.0 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 43.0 | 1 |
| 2.8 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 14 |
| 4 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 7 | 30 |
| 41.51% | 21 | Rush% | 52.63% | 8 |
| 58.49% | 12 | Pass% | 47.37% | 25 |
| 42.62% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 51.16% | 22 |
| 57.38% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 48.84% | 11 |
- The Bears were the first team since 2017 to win a game with fewer than 3.0 yards per play on offense.
- The Bears had one offensive play of 15 or more yards in Week 1, the fewest in the league.
- 35.7% of the Chicago running back runs in Week 1 failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The 3.2 yards per pass attempt for Caleb Williams was the fewest for a quarterback in his first start (min. 10 attempts) since Dave Ragone in 2003.
- Houston used 11 personnel on 77.8% of their passing plays in Week 1 (12th in the league) after a 71.8% rate in 2023 (20th).
- 51.1% of the Houston yards were via rushing (5th). In 2023, 28.3% of their yardage was via rushing (30th).
- 52.5% of the Houston rushes came out of 12 personnel in Week 1 (2nd in the league) after a 10.0% rate in 2023 (30th).
- Joe Mixon rushed for more yards than expected on 58.6% of his runs in Week 1 (2nd among running backs). He had a 41.0% rate over expectations in 2023.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Stroud opened the season on a solid note, finishing Week 1 as QB7 (18.7 points).
He connected on 24 of 32 passes for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns, adding 13 yards rushing.
As expected, Gus Bradley played Houston passively.
The Colts played man coverage on 2.8% of passing plays (31st) while sitting in Cover 3 on 52.8% of the snaps.
Stroud once again dissected their Cover-3 looks, going 12 of 16 for 9.1 Y/A on those snaps.
Stroud is at home attached to a high team total, so we are going right back to him as a QB1.
It is tough to gauge how good the Chicago defense is judging solely by Week 1 against Will Levis since he and Stroud could not be more different, but the Bears also closed 2023 on a high note as a pass defense.
The Bears have allowed more than 2 touchdown passes once since Week 4 of last season.
The highest scoring week they have allowed since Week 8 of last season was a QB9 week to Jordan Love.
This will be a better test to see where they are to open the year as opposed to last week at home against Tennessee.
Caleb Williams: Things can only go up from here…we hope.
Williams had a “welcome to the NFL” game right out of the packaging.
33.3% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or more, the highest rate for any passer in Week 1.
You have to go back to 2003 to find a quarterback who had fewer yards per pass attempt in his NFL debut than Williams in Week 1.
For fantasy, he closed the week as the QB29 (7.2 points).
His 0.128 passing points per attempt were 30th in the league.
17.2% of his passes were inaccurate throws, ahead of only Trevor Lawrence (19.0%) and Bryce Young (23.3%) in Week 1.
We will have to pump the brakes on Williams as a fantasy starter outside of 2QB leagues until he settles in or we see him run the ball more.
One of my concerns for him as a potential “Konami” player was that he would extend plays more than outright scramble at the NFL level.
In Week 1, he rushed 5 times for 15 yards.
I expect him to be a better passer than we saw in Week 1 but am still questioning if he makes that jump as a runner.
We are hoping he becomes someone like Jordan Love for fantasy.
When Williams was pressured in Week 1, he was 1 of 7 for 11 yards.
I am looking forward to seeing how he bounces back in Week 2.
Houston did not attempt to rush Anthony Richardson often in Week 1.
They blitzed on a league-low 8.3% of dropbacks. As a result, they only had a 25.0% pressure rate, 27th in Week 1.
Richardson hit some shot plays, but he also left a number of them on the field.
Running Back
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More Week 2 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Dolphins -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Saints @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Texans | Sunday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Eagles -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
